Did the Suns three offense break Devin Booker?

Did the Suns three offense break Devin Booker?

Kudos to Devin Booker. He is an entrepreneur through and through. During his decade in the desert, Booker always put the team first. Think back to 2018 when the Phoenix Suns were in full “tanking mode.” Booker was forced to sit out the final twelve games of the season, officially due to a triceps strain and a bruised hand. But let’s be honest. The organization saw an opportunity to rest their star while increasing their chances of getting a top draft pick, which ultimately landed them the No. 1 overall pick.

Fast forward to 2024 and the landscape has changed. After a disappointing postseason run (which felt more like slowly climbing over a precipice of disappointment), the Suns brought in Mike Budenholzer as head coach. Known for his offensive acumen, Budenholzer offers the perfect blueprint to unlock the Suns’ elite shooting potential.

Last season, Phoenix ranked 5th in three-point shooting percentage, but lagged in numbers, finishing 25th in attempts and 21st in three-point percentage. The league has moved on and the Suns had to catch up. Enter Bud. Enter the three-ball. The game is changing and the Suns are finally adapting.

Devin Booker stayed true to his character and joined Budenholzer’s system. He is the face of this franchise and does what is asked of him. He concedes more threes. And it ruins his overall effectiveness as a scorer.

Devin Booker has never had a higher three-point percentage than this season. It is 41.8%. His highlight so far? This 2017-18 year, 36.4% of his shots came from distance. That was also a year in which he shot 38.3% from deep, a rate he only exceeded in one other year, 2021-22.

But despite all those three-pointers, his score has dropped.

The four-time All-Star is averaging 24.9 points per game, his lowest point total since 2017-18. You’d think it would be higher considering the team was without their other key scorer, Kevin Durant, in 10 of their 23 games. But that’s not the case.

“I don’t shoot the ball well,” Devin Booker said after practice on Wednesday.

Has Mike Budenholzer’s focus on more three-point shooting for Devin Booker come at a cost? A year-over-year comparison of his shot charts shows a pretty startling trend.

Booker’s bread and butter has always been in the middle. Even though the analysis favored three-point shooting, hitting a 16-footer was always a success for Booker. However, we see that he needs less this season.

During the 2023-24 season, Devin Booker ranked fifth in the NBA for shots between 10 and 14 feet (258) and fourth for shots between 15 and 19 feet (210). He converted on 53% of those attempts, with those mid-range shots making up 72.9% of his total attempts, for an average of 27.1 points per game.

This season, however, Booker has fallen to seventh in shots from 10 to 14 feet (58) – behind Kevin Durant, who has shot 59 in 10 fewer games – and remains fourth in shots from 15 to 19 feet (62). Combined, these attempts now account for 65.9% of his total shots.

What do you draw from this data?

I usually rely on statistics. They tell a story. As the saying goes, “People lie, but numbers don’t.” It’s true that Devin Booker has struggled within Mike Budenholzer’s system. But if I were to rank my concern about this issue on my Worry-o-Meter compared to the team’s other challenges, I’m not sure it would be at the top of the list. Our defense? Our sales? Our third quarter? These need attention.

Booker adapts and in the same breath Coach Bud has to adapt to Booker. The process must go both ways. Budenholzer should focus on what Booker excels at: being a shooting guard who thrives in the midfield.

I respect Booker for embracing the system and increasing his three-point attempts. Is it unfortunate that he doesn’t hit them at a faster pace? Secure. But history tells us he was never an elite three-point shooter. This is not a shocking revelation. He’s not Steph Curry. And that’s okay. Nobody expects that from him. As long as Bud doesn’t do either, everything will be fine.

However, Booker shouldn’t stop improving beyond the limits. He is averaging 7.7 attempts per game this season, the highest of his career. If this number were closer to his career average of 5.8 attempts, the balance would be better. When he knocks down a few threes, he becomes even more difficult to defend, giving him the opportunity to get around defenders and get to his preferred spots in the midfield. And once he’s in his comfort zone, Booker can be deadly. While he doesn’t have an elite first step, his ability to find his spot and convert makes him one of the best in the game.

Did Bud break Booker? Time will tell. What do you think?

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