Dollar rises after CPI; China is considering weakening the yuan

Dollar rises after CPI; China is considering weakening the yuan

In this image taken on July 27, 2011 in Sydney, one dollar and 10 cents in Australian currency lie on a U.S. dollar bill.

Tim Wimborne | Reuters

The dollar rose on Wednesday after U.S. price data met forecasts.

The dollar also got a boost from a Reuters report that China is considering allowing a weaker currency next year, pushing the yuan and other Asian currencies lower.

The consumer price index rose 0.3% last month, the biggest increase since April, after rising 0.2% for four straight months, data showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.3% rise in the index.

Following the report, the probability of a quarter-point Fed rate cut on Dec. 18 increased to 96.4%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

“The market is as confident as can be that the Fed will still cut rates next week,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Forex in New York. “Very rarely does the Federal Reserve act against the market when such big opportunities are priced in.”

The USA Dollar index most recently up 0.2% to 106.63.

Analysts said the dollar would also be hurt by a Reuters report that China’s top leaders and policymakers are considering allowing the yuan to weaken in 2025 as they brace for higher trade tariffs under a second Donald Trump presidency.

The dollar rose sharply against the yuan but gave up some of its earlier gains and was last up 0.18% against the offshore unit at 7.2747.

The planned move reflects China’s recognition that it needs stronger economic stimulus to counter Trump’s threat of higher tariffs, people familiar with the matter said, according to the report.

China is expected to hold its annual Central Economic Work Conference this week after vowing at Monday’s Politburo meeting to move to “appropriately loose” monetary policy to boost economic growth.

“If currency devaluation were used as a tactic to counter the tariff shock, the likely escalating trade war could increase exceptionalism (of the U.S. dollar) and weigh on regional currencies,” said Ken Cheung, foreign exchange strategist at Mizuho.

China-linked currencies fell, with the Aussie last down 0.25% at $0.6362 and the Kiwi down 0.18% at $0.579, after both hit yearly lows following the report. Korea’s under-fire won also fell.

Japan yen came into focus after Bloomberg news reported that the BOJ sees a “low cost” of waiting for the next rate hike.

The dollar was last up 0.3% at 152.43 yen.

Earlier in the day, the yen gained after data showed that Japanese wholesale inflation was accelerating, supporting the case for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan next week.

“The data suggests an increase,” said Bart Wakabayashi, co-branch manager at State Street in Tokyo. “Let’s put it this way: If they raise, the position is very defensible.”

In a busy week for monetary policy, the Bank of Canada meets later on Wednesday and the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank meet on Thursday.

Expectations that the Canadian central bank will cut interest rates by half a percentage point helped to stabilize madman near a 4-1/2-year low against the greenback. One US dollar last cost C$1.4174.

The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0498, while the Swiss franc against the dollar fell 0.07% to 0.8822.

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