Everton He is back in action this afternoon after a lengthy absence due to the postponement of the Merseyside derby. Sean Dyche may have had mixed feelings as the club came into this game fresh from their biggest win of the season: a 4-0 win over Wolverhampton Wanderers – but that should also be noted Liverpool are in imperious form.

If the Blues avoided a potentially difficult encounter last weekend, then the tough games continue until the end of the month Chelsea And Manchester City lie in wait. First up, however, is a trip to the Emirates, where the Toffees will play arsenal.

Form

The Gunners once again put eventual Premier League champions City under heavy pressure last season, but with six straight wins to end the campaign they still fell short of an opponent who had not lost a league game since the start of December . Fans would have expected a return this season and the club backed Mikel Arteta again in the transfer market after investing heavily in the squad over three years – a spectacular net outlay of almost €465. This time the expenditure was significant (€109 million), but most of it was amortized through sales (€84 million).

The most significant was the measure to make the loan of Brentford goalkeeper David Raya permanent for a transfer fee of 31.9 million euros. The other three big signings – Riccardo Calafiori (€45m, Bologna), Mikel Merino (€32m, Real Sociedad) and Raheem Sterling (loan, Chelsea) have been less impactful so far. Defender Calafiori, a standout Italian at Euro 24 in the summer, was deployed almost exclusively at left-back but was unconvincing. Spanish midfielder Merino has yet to secure a starting place, while Sterling has surprisingly been struggling for minutes.

The North Londoners made a number of player demands in the summer and said goodbye to attacking midfielder Emile Smith-Rowe (€31.8m). Fulham), striker Eddie Nketiah (€29.7m, Crystal Palace) and goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale (€21.4m, Southampton) – and each raised significant funds. Several left on loan, most notably the highly paid Fábio Vieira (Porto), young player Reiss Nelson (Fulham) and left-back Nuno Tavares – who is currently impressing at Lazio.

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The Gunners started the domestic season in strong form and remained unbeaten in their first eight games. They only lost points to Brighton and Man City before suffering defeat at Bournemouth. This setback led to a lull that saw them fail to win any of their next three, including a defeat against Newcastle United at St James’ Park. Injuries to key players and a series of red card incidents affected the team’s form. They have since bounced back with three straight wins in the league, but were held to a 1-1 draw by Fulham last weekend. They await Everton’s resounding 3-0 Champions League win over Monaco on Wednesday to move into third place in the EPL table.

Play style

Arteta is a supporter of his former boss Pep Guardiola and reflects the style of his Basque compatriots, although he is more orthodox and less experimental. Traditionally, he emulates the Man City manager a season later, for example with the inverted full-back concept, although he notably maintains a false nine approach rather than trying to sign an orthodox striker, as City did with Erling Haaland. Another departure this season has been the team’s continued focus on set pieces – something we’ve never really seen from Guardiola before. Arteta has switched between his preferred 4-3-3 and a 4-4-2 this season.

Otherwise, Arsenal are quite similar to City in that they try to enforce ball control in a medium-paced, possession-based system, making the pitch as wide as possible and wearing down the opposition with constant attacks; which can be both mentally and physically tiring. So it’s a little surprising that they only rank seventh in the division in terms of ball possession (53.2%) and passing accuracy (85.6%). However, only 8.6% of their passes go the distance.

The hosts have scored 29 goals in the league this season, slightly above their xG (expected goals) value of 25.6. They average 14.2 shots on goal per 90 minutes, which puts them eighth in the division. Arsenal prefer attacking from the right wing (46%) and are the team in the league least likely to attack through the middle (23%). Together with Aston Villa, the Gunners are well ahead of the other teams in shots from the six-yard box (18%). They haven’t scored many goals from play this season, but they are top of the division with eight goals from set pieces.

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With 15 goals conceded, Arsenal are the second best defense in the league so far – which corresponds to an xGA (Expected Goals Allowed) statistic of 14.2. They allow 11.8 shots per 90 shots on their net, ranking them sixth. Today’s hosts conceded the second-fewest goals of the game overall (seven), but their own defense from set pieces was mediocre at best, with five goals allowed.

Player Rating

A key reason for Arsenal’s one-sided attack was the form of Bukayo Saka. The right winger is playing at the highest level and has scored 15 goals in the league this season. The 23-year-old is a multi-dimensional threat, leading the team in both key passes (3.05) and completed crosses into the opposition area (0.63) per 90, as well as SCA (Shot-Creating Actions) – an impressive 6.47. He is also successful with 40.9% of his 5.16 dribbling attempts and carries the ball into the opponent’s penalty area 2.66 times per game.

Arsenal captain Martin Ødegaard’s return from injury was a huge win for the hosts. The playmaker has developed an intuitive understanding with Saka. He is just behind his teammate in both key passes (2.97) and SCA (5.29) per 90.

Solution

This game has proven unprofitable for Everton for many years and this afternoon it looks set to be a winner. The Gunners have won their last three games against Dyche’s side – following the shock 1-0 win at Goodison Park, the Everton manager’s debut at the club – including a 4-0 win over the Emirates in the 2023/24 season and a rather narrow 2-1 result in the last game of last season. The visitors had fought resolutely in this game and held their own until the final half hour when the North Londoners upped the tempo and emerged as worthy winners.

I don’t think Dyche has strayed too far from the strategy he adopted in May: a compact shape, concede possession, make things difficult for the hosts and hope they run out of ideas and become frustrated. The Blues took the lead, but unfortunately couldn’t hold it for long. Everton had to withstand early pressure before gaining a foothold in the game and that will certainly be the case again.

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The Toffees will almost certainly stick with their usual 4-2-3-1 formation and the same team that won so easily against Wolves, with Abdoulaye Doucouré behind Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Dwight McNeil back on the left and Iliman Ndiaye, who changes to the outside, does the right thing. Personally, I’m not yet convinced of Doucouré’s effectiveness in this role and feel that Ndiaye is even weaker on the right than on the left, but I’m sure Dyche will go for it.

Everton’s best chance of getting something out of this game is to exploit high turnovers – and the chances of them doing that decrease as the game progresses, usually disappearing after an hour as the team tires. I don’t think the visitors’ set-pieces are anywhere near as effective as they were against Wolves, while they themselves need to be focused to avoid being punished by the hosts’ inventive dead-ball threat themselves.

In summary, I feel like the Toffees last time weren’t nearly as good as the result suggested. Wolves defended set pieces incompetently and Everton couldn’t get much out of open play – just one first-half chance for DCL and a flurry of very late (futile) attempts from Jack Harrison, even though the game was already won. The Midlanders earned victory over the Blues on a couple of occasions but failed to capitalize. Arsenal should not only create more, but also punish any defensive weaknesses with ruthlessness.

Prediction: Arsenal 3-0 Everton

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