Saturday December 14th

IS4S greeting to the Veterans Bowl: Southern Alabama vs. Western Michigan

Spread: South Alabama -7.5 | Adjusted Thor Line: South Alabama -10.9

9 p.m. | ESPN, Cramton Bowl. Montgomery, Ala

Notable portal, opt-out and violation news:

South Alabama

• RB1 Fluff Bothwell (Portal)
• Starting CB Jordan Scruggs (Portal)
• QB1 Gio Lopez (injury)
• Start: RG Reed Buys (injury)

West Michigan

• TE1 Blake Bosma
• Starting EDGE Corey Walker
• Rotation DL Anterio Thompson

disability

South Alabama QB Gio Lopez is questionable. QB2 Bishop Davenport gets the call when Lopez can’t go. That would be a significant downgrade – I think Lopez is a P4 talent (he recently stated he is staying in the US for the 2025 season).

The Jags will be able to more easily compensate for the absence of RB Fluff Bothwell by simply letting his teammate RB Kentrel Bullock do most of his work. This is one of the reasons we like Bullock’s 82.5 rushing yards over on the prop market.

Western Michigan’s absences are probably a little more problematic than meets the eye. TE Blake Bosma is by far the team’s best pass-catching option. Bosma caught all 37 of his catchable targets this fall and led the team in receptions. He had three times as many receiving TDs (6) as anyone on the roster (2).

Meanwhile, WMU’s rancid, 120th-ranked SP+ defense couldn’t really afford the loss of two strong players on the field. Thompson is not a good run defender, but he can rush the passer. His loss reduces the three-player DL rotation to two, with lightly used players taking his snaps.

The loss of Walker hurts the most. He was arguably the team’s best defender. Walker was a very good run defense player at the EDGE – South Alabama could try to attack his backups.

Western Michigan’s run defense hasn’t been good to begin with, and it’s going to get worse in this game. Not only are we riding the Bullock train, but we’re also leaving WMU RB Jaden Nixon with 61.5 rushing yards. Nixon has been the clear RB3 in this rotation for over a month. Over the last three games, he is averaging 5.3 carries for 9.0 rushing yards per game.

If Lopez plays, we would want to be at -9.5 for South Alabama. However, since his status is unclear as of this writing, we’ll stick with the props.

Thor’s bets:

• South Alabama RB Kentrell Bullock had 82.5 rushing yards
• WMU RB Jaden Nixon under 61.5 rushing yards

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Tuesday, December 17th

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl: Memphis vs. West Virginia

Spread: Memphis -4.5 | ATL: Memphis -1.3

9 p.m. | ESPN, Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas

Notable portal, opt-out and violation news:

Memphis

West Virginia

• Starting: WR Traylon Ray (OFY injury)
• Starting LB Josiah Trotter
• Start CB Ayden Garnes (OFY injury)
• Starting S Aubrey Burks (OFY injury)

analysis

At the time of publication, there were no opt-outs in Memphis. Last time out, the Tigers beat Tulane 34-24 on Thanksgiving as a 13-point underdog.

Tigers RB Mario Anderson is a potential opt-out. Anderson has rushed for 138 or more yards in five of six games. During that time, he played a number of poor run defenses.

The game where Anderson failed was against UTSA (53 yards), which has a very good run defense and pass funnel defense. West Virginia has an extreme pass funnel defense. The Mountaineers have a solid run defense and rank 51st in completion percentage and 54th in yards per successful rush.

WVU’s pass defense, on the other hand, is a farce. It ranks 129th in success rate and 128th in yards/dropback and EPA/dropback. Memphis will find it easier to overcome yards in the air.

On the other hand, we expect both WVU QB Garrett Greene and the RBs he works with to find success on the ground against a Memphis defense that allows too many explosive runs.

West Virginia fired HC Neal Brown after a 52-15 loss to Texas Tech in the regular season finale. By the end of the season, it was clear that the Brown era in West Virginia was over. The Mountaineers named OC Chad Scott interim HC for the bowl game.

Memphis HC Ryan Silverfield is 3-0 ATS and SU in his last three bowl games, posting double-digit wins each time. That caveat aside, we like the way West Virginia performed in this game. We expect that they will make greater efforts now that the pressure of Brown’s situation has eased and there has been an air of excitement following the broadcast The attitude of Rich Rodriguez.

Thor’s bets:

• West Virginia +4.5
• Memphis QB Seth Henigan over 255.5 passing yards
• Memphis RB Mario Anderson under 110.5 rushing yards