Each week throughout the 2024-25 NBA season, we’ll be taking a deeper look at some of the league’s biggest storylines to find out whether future trends are based more on fact or fiction.

(Last week: LeBron James’ Lakers are stuck in the middle)

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Fact or fiction: SGA is the best player remaining in the NBA Cup

The NBA Cup field has shrunk to four teams. As much as we respect the talent collection of the Atlanta Hawks and Houston Rockets – and they are good teams (maybe not good for the championship, but “could “winning the NBA Cup” is good) – the question of who the best remaining player in the tournament is is two names long.

According to BetMGM, Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder are the two favorites to win the NBA Cup MVP. They, along with Luka Dončić of the Dallas Mavericks and Nikola Jokić of the Denver Nuggets, are also considered favorites to win the regular season MVP award.

Antetokounmpo is an establishment superstar, a two-time MVP looking for his third. The 30-year-old has been one of the top four MVP candidates since the 2018-19 season, when Gilgeous-Alexander made his NBA debut. Gilgeous-Alexander, who finished second to Jokić for MVP last year, is new to this conversation. Even having the discussion about the comparison between Gilgeous-Alexander and Antetokounmpo is a credit to the rise of the 26-year-old.

But let us know now: Who is enjoying the superior season?

Traditionally, there is no clear statistical difference between the two.

• Antetokounmpo (22 games): 32.7 PTS (61/18/61), 11.4 REB, 6.0 AST (3.5 TO), 1.5 BLK, 0.6 STL

• Gilgeous Alexander (24 games): 30.2 PTS (52/34/86), 5.4 REB, 6.3 AST (2.7 TO), 1.8 STL, 1.0 BLK

The numbers reflect their different styles. Antetokounmpo is a wrecking ball, wreaking havoc on both ends of the court. Gilgeous-Alexander is a carver who cuts lanes on both sides of the floor and serves everyone.

If you want to argue that Antetokounmpo’s rebounds make the difference here, as does his length on defense, which can go unnoticed in the box, then I agree with you. I also think Gilgeous-Alexander’s three-level scoring is just as impactful, and he happens to be the driving force of both an elite offense that commits the fewest turnovers per game and an elite defense that commits the most turnovers per game Forces play. More on that later.

If we’re being nitpicky, Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 1,108 points or assists in his team’s first 24 games. Antetokounmpo scored or assisted 1,076 points. And if we run them through our Points Defended metric, Gilgeous-Alexander saved his team 83 points. Antetokounmpo saved his 58.

That’s a total difference of 57 points in Gilgeous-Alexander’s favor, enough to make Antetokounmpo’s two more absences this season a problem. (Gilgeous-Alexander has never missed a game.)

When it comes to advanced statistics, we could argue all day about who is leading who in which category.

• Antetokounmpo: 31.5 PER, 63.0 TS%, 37.1 USG%, 3.8 WS, 8.6 BPM, 2.0 VORP

• Gilgeous Alexander: 28.6 PER, 62.6 TS%, 33.2 USG%, 4.8 WS, 10.2 BPM, 2.6 VORP

For every advanced metric in which Gilgeous-Alexander leads Antetokounmpo, there is one in which Antetokounmpo leads Gilgeous-Alexander. If you ask about my two favorites, “Estimated Plus-Minus” and “Daily Plus-Minus,” Gilgeous-Alexander lists both.

I will not rely on this in any way. What I find interesting is this: Gilgeous-Alexander has a significantly lower usage rate than Antetokounmpo, but significantly higher win shares – the highest in the league, to be exact. What does that say about their teams? And what do their teams say about the impact of each individual?

Everyone understands that the Thunder (19-5) are the better team. They lead a stacked Western Conference by 2.5 games. The Bucks (13-11) are fighting to maintain a guaranteed playoff spot in the weaker Eastern Conference. Oklahoma City is outscoring its opponents by 12 points per 100 possessions this season, a margin that would rank second in NBA history behind Michael Jordan’s 72-win Chicago Bulls (13.4). Milwaukee’s net rating (1.1) has only risen above zero in recent weeks as the team has struggled in an easy schedule.

The Thunder are 11-5 against teams with winning records. The Bucks are 3-8 against teams that are .500 or better.

From such a close comparison, one should conclude that Gilgeous-Alexander’s teammates are better than Antetokounmpo’s. And I think that’s mostly true. But we shouldn’t discredit Milwaukee.

Damian Lillard is an eight-time All-Star. Khris Middleton is a three-time All-Star who recently returned to the rotation. Brook Lopez is a former All-Star who has regularly competed for All-Defensive recognition in recent years. AJ Green is a flamethrower. Bobby Portis finished third in the Sixth Man of the Year voting last year. Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince and Delon Wright were praised for their low salaries. Milwaukee is not without leadership talent, even if it is best known for its past accomplishments.

Not so in Oklahoma City, where Jalen Williams is only now realizing his All-Star potential, as is Chet Holmgren, who is facing a broken pelvis. Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso and Lu Dort are all-defensive additions. The Thunder’s flamethrower is Isaiah Joe. They are rich in developmental success stories throughout the roster and have the draft capital to upgrade anytime, anywhere.

It should also follow that Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thunder are better without him than Antetokounmpo’s Bucks are without him. And this is where the wicket gets sticky. According to Cleaning the Glass, Oklahoma City is 12.9 points per 100 meaningful possessions better when its superstar is on the floor. Milwaukee is four points per 100 possessions better when its superstar is on the court.

Antetokounmpo is a champion. Don’t forget. He has a handful of his teammates in the championship and traded one of his best for Lillard. We can debate whether it makes sense to trade Jrue Holiday for Lillard, but as far as pedigree goes, the Bucks have plenty of it. The culture is on shaky ground, rotating between coaches and losing three straight playoff series, although injuries may be to blame. Regardless, we know who the Bucks are withering away around Antetokounmpo unless the rest of this tournament can change our minds.

Conversely, Gilgeous-Alexander has no certified future Hall of Famer to share his burden. The Thunder are finding out for themselves in real time and are excited for him. Case in point: Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 51% of the Thunder’s points in the clutch this season, as opposed to Antetokounmpo, who scores 27% of the Bucks’ points when the score is within five points in the final minutes of a game.

We also know who Antetokounmpo is: a battering ram. He scores 79% of his points from either inside 3 feet or at the free throw line, preferring the former. Opponents leave him open outside the restricted area, where he has a 42% shooting percentage on 8.3 attempts per game. That’s 0.86 points per possession. They can build a wall against Antetokounmpo. He will find his way, but you may be able to hold him off long enough to win.

That’s why the Bucks chased Lillard to make up for what Antetokounmpo’s wall had done. What was a top-five offense under former Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer has become a mediocre team in two of the last three seasons, including this one, as opposing defenses have solved that conundrum.

I just don’t think Gilgeous-Alexander can be slowed down in the same way, at least not yet. If you could, Williams wouldn’t be as good. Neither would Holmgren or anyone on the Thunder. Because Gilgeous-Alexander can score at any level, defenses never let him go free. They need to stop him from getting to the rim (where he also shoots 73%) and keep him away from mid-range And Respect for his 3-point jump shot.

The only way to slow him down is to slow himself down, which he often does because the game is played at his pace. There’s no tactic he can’t solve that doesn’t involve a double team. Both Antetokounmpo and Gilgeous-Alexander will continue to get their spots; It’s just that Gilgeous-Alexander has more places to go.

Determination: fact. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player remaining in the NBA Cup.