Fantasy Football Points Allowed: Best and Worst Matchups (Week 14)

Fantasy Football Points Allowed: Best and Worst Matchups (Week 14)

That’s it. As soon as the NFL schedule was released, fantasy managers looked at the Week 14 slate with trepidation. For the vast majority of leagues, this is the final week of the fantasy regular season, with playoff spots on the line. Six teams are on byes, including some of the best offensive players in the league.

In what is easily the most important week of the fantasy season so far, fantasy managers will have to make some tough decisions this week to fill spots in their lineups. After a glorious week with no byes and all 32 teams in action, my standards are lowered once again as I try to find the best (and worst) fantasy football matchups for Week 14 FantasyPro’s Fantasy Points Allowed Tool – let’s get started!

FantasyPros My Playbook League Sync

Fantasy Points Allowed: Best and Worst Matchups (Week 14)

Week 14 quarterback fantasy football matchups

Good Matchup: Will Levis (QB – TEN) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Last week I listed CJ Stroud against the same Jacksonville defense and he was a huge disappointment…but are we sure Will Levis isn’t a better fantasy quarterback than Stroud at this point? Levis scored at least 16 fantasy points in the last four weeks, including two top-10 finishes. Now he faces the Jaguars, who, despite Stroud’s best efforts, lead the league in allowing 22.6 points per game to opposing QBs. For an advanced stat that shows how terrible their pass defense is, Jacksonville posts 0.312 EPA per dropback; No other team is even above .175 (the Patriots). I know it doesn’t feel good to trust Will Levis with the Fantasy Football Playoff hopes that may be on the line, but he’s the best streaming option generally available for Week 14.

Bad Matchup: Jameis Winston (QB – CLE) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Fantasy managers will likely rush to sign Jameis Winston after he absolutely lit up an elite Broncos defense on Monday Night Football. However, we know Winston is a player who runs hot and cold, and we may see a dose of reality in “Bad Jameis” this week. The Steelers are giving up just 13.4 points per game to opposing quarterbacks, the lowest in the league. They held Jameis himself to just 13.46 points just two weeks ago in Week 12 (to be fair, that was a snow game). I wouldn’t say Winston is a must-have on the bench – his volume has been absolutely absurd since taking over as the Browns’ starter (43.6 attempts per game), and the Steelers are actually giving up an above-average number of pass yards per game. But I also don’t recommend adding him to the starting lineup without thinking if you have other reasonable options.

Week 14 running back fantasy football matchups

Good matchup: Tony Pollard (RB – TEN) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

It’s almost impressive how bad the Jaguars’ defense is. Not only are they the softest fantasy matchup for quarterbacks, but they also give up the second-most points per game to opposing running backs. To be fair, there is some overlap here, as the Jaguars rank third in the league allowing 46.3 yards per game to opposing RBs. That’s a great starting point for Pollard, who, in addition to his high volume on the floor, ranks sixth among RBs with a 13.6% target share for the season. I would have hesitated to recommend Pollard healthy with Tyjae Spears. However, Spears was healthy last week and Pollard still saw an elite workload: a 72% snap share, 54% route participation rate, 16% target share and eight of the team’s nine RB carries. If he sees anything close to a workload against the Jaguars’ defense, Pollard should get the job done.

Bad Matchup: Gus Edwards (RB – LAC) @ Kansas City Chiefs

It may seem like a cop-out to have listed Edwards as my worst opponent for the week. Because even with JK Dobbins sidelined, the veteran only recorded six runs and a score on 52% snap percentage in Week 13. But especially given the number of teams playing on byes, Edwards is in the starting RB discussion based on his performance alone. He’s the leading RB in a decent offense – he’s currently the RB27 FantasyPros Week 14 Consensus Rankings. That puts him firmly on the starting radar… but I’m here to say he shouldn’t be. This Chiefs defense was a brutal matchup for opposing RBs, allowing just 13.1 points per game. They allow the fewest rushing yards to RBs per game at just 57.5 and also rank second-worst when it comes to receiving yards given up (22.7). Playing against Edwards essentially means hoping he falls into the end zone, and Hassan Haskins actually has three goal-line throws to his name since Week 10. If you have another RB with a pulse, I would start him over the Gus bus this week.

FantasyPro's Gameday Tool

Week 14 Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Jayden Reed (WR – GB) @ Detroit Lions

I consider myself one card-carrying Jayden Reed doubter. However, I’m willing to change my mind depending on the circumstances, and this week is outstanding for the second-year wide receiver. For one thing, he finishes his first game since Week 5 (okay, I had to hate a little) with a target share of over 20%. This happened when Romeo Doubs was sidelined, and Doubs will do it not necessarily being back in time for the Packers’ Thursday Night Football game. Even if Doubs plays, this matchup is excellent for Reed. Overall, the Lions are the sixth-softest matchup for fantasy receivers. However, they are particularly vulnerable to players working out of the slot, where they rank second with over 100 yards allowed per game. This is perfect for Reed, who ran 79% of his routes from the slot in 2024. The other great thing about this matchup for Reed (and the other Packers receivers, for that matter) is that the Lions are the 3.5-point favorite. The Packers have been the league’s fourth-most conservative team in passing percentage compared to expectations this season, but they will need to pass to keep up with Detroit’s explosive offense. A potentially negative game script is particularly good for Reed because it would mean more three-WR sets (he only ran two routes with two or fewer receivers on the field all year). If even I’m willing to back Reed, that means he’s definitely a must-buy, so add him to your lineup.

Bad Matchup: Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA) vs. New York Jets

Waddle has shown signs of life in recent weeks in a thoroughly disappointing season. He had by far his best outing of the season in Week 12 and four catches for 53 yards with an elite 90% route participation rate (by far his best season) in Week 13. Unfortunately, don’t expect his winning streak to continue, if we can call it that, continues into week 14. The Jets rank last in fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers at just 21.7 per game. They are a tough opponent across the board, conceding the fewest receptions, third-fewest yards and second-fewest touchdowns at the position. Meanwhile, their offense is imploding, giving the Dolphins a six-point lead at home this week. This is not the Miami offense of years past that would run up the score at will. In a tough matchup where the Dolphins may not have to pass much, I expect another quiet performance from Waddle.

Week 14: Tight End Fantasy Football Matchups

Good matchup: Grant Calcaterra (TE – PHI) vs. Carolina Panthers

Dallas Goedert suffered a knee injury in Week 13 Reportedly from week to week. That means he will miss at least Sunday’s game and Calcaterra remains the Eagles’ primary tight end. In four weeks without Goedert earlier this season, Calcaterra averaged a solid 16% target share with an elite route participation rate of 83%. This week he faces the Panthers, who are allowing a league-leading 14.5 points to opposing tight ends. To be fair, a large portion of those points were touchdowns, but they still rank 10th in receptions and eighth in yards given to TEs. More importantly, we’d definitely give Calcaterra a touchdown, which is still just a major league streaming option. The Eagles have an impressive total of 29.5 points for this game. Unless Saquon Barkley takes all of the production (which is a real risk), I like Calcaterra’s chances of getting a few catches and hopefully scoring his first NFL touchdown.

Bad Matchup: Tucker Kraft (TE – GB) @ Detroit Lions

The Lions only allowed opposing tight ends 5.2 points per game. It’s true that they weren’t exactly facing a killer line-up of the game’s elite TEs (outside of Trey McBride and Jake Ferguson, Kraft was probably the best fantasy TE they faced, even in Week 9). Still, it’s impressive that they give up the fewest receptions, yards and touchdowns per game at this position. Meanwhile, Kraft has performed like a fringe TE1, ranking ninth in points per game, but is still capable of duds, including a complete donut in Week 11. If you have another option, would I’ll leave him on your bench for week 14.

Join the FantasyPros Discord

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *