Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em
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Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

Posted on by Amelia Pressman

Build your Week 16 fantasy football lineups with Dalton Del Don’s top starting/sitting picks for every game on the list.

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Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals

Starting Thompson-Robinson is bad news for Jerry Jeudy, but Ford is a smart choice if you need an RB this week. He saw 84% of the snaps and every RB opportunity after Nick Chubb went down with a broken foot last week, and the Bengals have given up the most timely fantasy points to running backs over the past five weeks. Pierre Strong and D’Onta Foreman could also see work, but the Browns should switch to run-heavy with DTR.

New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons

Nabers surpassed the 40% target percentage last week for the fourth time this season, while no other wideout has done it more than twice. It was also Nabers’ eighth game in which he recorded a target share of over 40% on the first read. Nabers’ role expanded last week as he posted season highs in routes, targets, catches, yards and TDs from the slot where he absolutely dominated in college. The Falcons have been contested for the most timely fantasy points against wide receivers over the last five weeks (and they just faced Desmond Ridder), so Nabers gets a favorable (and fast-paced) matchup in the arena on Sunday (even shadowed by AJ Terrell). him).

Drew Lock is an upgrade over Tommy DeVito’s low aDOT/high sack combination. Nabers has a 28.4% target share in two games with Lock this season. The Giants have a low implied point total of 16.75 points, so the ceiling for Nabers is likely limited. But he’s still a top-20 WR this week.

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

Despite the return of Jalen Coker last week, Thielen led Carolina in route running and saw 67% of his snaps in the slot. Xavier Legette is out this week and Coker could be hampered with what is expected to be a quadriceps injury, so Thielen will be particularly busy on Sunday. The Cardinals have shut down outside receivers but have struggled to defend their spot, allowing the second-highest target rate (51%) this season. Thielen also ranks in the top 25 in fantasy points per route completion compared to zone coverage, which Arizona has used at the 10th-highest rate in the league.

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Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

Goff is a safer start at home (and indoors), but he has posted a YPA of 9.0 on the road this season. His TD:INT ratio is 10:1 over the last three games, and Goff could continue to throw more passes with David Montgomery sidelined and Detroit’s defense rife with injuries. The Lions have a solid implied point total of 27.5 points, and the Bears’ pass defense has since fallen from first in EPA/dropback allowed Weeks 1-8 to 27th.

Sit down, Caleb Williamswho ranks last among 34 qualified quarterbacks in the YPA this season (4.9!) against man coverage, which the Lions have used at the highest rate in the league (42.3%).

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

Richardson has averaged nine rush attempts in four games since returning as a starter, including four carries inside the five. AR continues to struggle with accuracy issues, but no quarterback is throwing deeper downfield, and he’s facing the most pressure in the league since reclaiming the starting job in Week 11; Richardson ranks first in Big Time Throw% (9.3) when he remains error-free over that period. Injuries have hit a Tennessee secondary that ranks 28th in EPA/dropback allowed since Week 10. The Titans’ opponents have the fourth-highest passing rate above expectations in the last month. The Colts are expected to score 23 points this week, so Richardson has potential.

Los Angeles Rams @ New York Jets

Start: Cooper Kupp & Matthew Stafford

Kupp clearly took a backseat to Puka Nacua and had goosebumps in the first week of the fantasy playoffs. In Kupp’s defense, both teams had major passing issues during a rainy game that combined to result in zero touchdowns, but he is now the WR57 over the last three weeks.

Kupp is clearly not the same player he once was, and Nacua has developed into a bona fide No. 1, but he gets a quality match this week to get back on his feet. The Jets have allowed the third-most scheduled fantasy points to wide receivers over the last five weeks, and New York ranks 29th in EPA/dropback since Week 9. Additionally, New York has given up the most fantasy points to the slot. where Kupp has run 62% of his routes this season.

Stafford had a 10-0 TD:INT ratio in his last four games, before last week’s rainy slog that totaled just 18 points. The Rams have an implied point total of 24.75 points and a rejuvenated Aaron Rodgers could make it a shootout on Sunday. The Jets are a pass funnel defense that has stopped the run but has allowed the third-most scheduled fantasy points to QBs over the last five weeks. New York has ranked last in defensive EPA since firing Robert Saleh (they were fifth previously). The Jets’ opponents also posted the third-highest success rate above expectations last month. Stafford is a top-12 QB this week.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders

Robinson is the RB18 in this week’s Expert Consensus Rankings, so you may not have better options. But Robinson’s expectations need to be lowered considering the Eagles’ defense is allowing its lowest EPA/rush since Week 9. Philadelphia hasn’t had a running back rush for over 100 yards this season, and the Eagles have given up the fewest rushing fantasy points, adjusted for the schedule to RBs over the last five weeks. Robinson’s role remains strong (and he’s always a threat to score a few goal-line TDs), but he’s averaged just 38.7 rushing yards in losses this year, and the Commanders are 4-point underdogs heading into Sunday.

Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks

Metcalf has scored the fewest goals (three) in a game in which he hasn’t been injured since his rookie season last week, but he’ll get a good spot to bounce back on Sunday. Geno Smith (and Metcalf) returned to a full practice this week as Metcalf would otherwise have been a bench candidate with Sam Howell in the starting lineup. Metcalf leads Seattle this season in target rate (19.2%) compared to zone coverage, which Minnesota has used at the fifth-highest rate in the league (77.0%). The Vikings have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to outside receivers this season, but they have given up the second-fewest ANY/A (5.1) to the slot since Week 8 (where Jaxon Smith-Njigba ran 86% of his routes) this year ).

The Vikings’ opponents have the highest pass rate in the league this season (64%) and average the most pass attempts (37.9). Metcalf faces a touchdown regression (and more targets!) and should remain in fantasy lineups this week.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

Stevenson has averaged 16.8 fantasy points in wins (would be the RB5 this season) but just 9.9 in losses this year (RB31). The Patriots are a whopping 14-point underdog this week and have a low implied team total of 16.25 points. The Bills have been far less vulnerable to fantasy backs over the past five weeks, and this matchup will likely be a slow one. Look for alternatives to Stevenson this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Las Vegas Raiders

Meyers has seen the second-most targets (45) and air yards (447) in the league over the last month – and that was the case with Desmond Ridder last week. The return of Aidan O’Connell gives Meyers a boost. The Jaguars have allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, and this matchup should be fast-paced. Meyers’ target rate has increased to 25.5% compared to man coverage this season, giving Jacksonville the fourth-highest rate in the league (38.2%).

San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins

Jennings had a quiet fantasy performance, but he posted a 29% target rate and suffered in a game where the weather severely affected the passing game. The 49ers did it No. 5 running back With Isaac Guerendo injured this season, San Francisco was able to pass more than usual. Jennings has a 35.5% first-read target percentage since the loss of Brandon Aiyuk (Week 7) and ranks fifth in yards per route run this season (2.64). Jennings is a top 15 WR this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys

Mayfield enjoyed a healthy Mike Evans, who threw seven touchdowns in the last two weeks. He should continue on Sunday night against an injury-riddled Dallas defense (though they fared much better with Micah Parsons, who is likely suffering from a gastrointestinal illness). The Cowboys have allowed the most fantasy points per dropback this season, and the Buccaneers have one of the highest implied team totals this week (26 points).

Cooper Rush is a sleeper at QB this week as he gets a pass funnel Tampa Bay defense that blitzes heavily.

New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers

Miller has impressed despite limited work this season and should lead New Orleans’ backfield on Monday night with Alvin Kamara out. But he faces a difficult setup on a depleted Saints team with one of the lowest projected point totals this season (14.25 points) this week. Spencer Rattler starts at QB and New Orleans’ top two WRs could be Kevin Austin Jr. and Dante Pettis. The Saints are 14-point underdogs, and the Packers haven’t had a running back rush for 75 yards since Week 8. Jamaal Williams expects to be more involved in a slow matchup, so Miller is a fringe starter on Monday night.

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