Fantasy Football Week 18 Start Sit Decisions: One Last Drive for Joe Flacco
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Fantasy Football Week 18 Start Sit Decisions: One Last Drive for Joe Flacco

Posted on by Amelia Pressman

quarterback

Starting: Michael Penix, Falcons

We’re doing it again with Penix. The Falcons’ total score is 28 points. You get a Carolina defense that ranks 31st in EPA per dropback allowed and has given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Atlanta took an extremely conservative approach to Penix’s first start, posting a success rate of -11% above expectations with an aDOT of 5.7 for the rookie. Both numbers skyrocketed last week. Atlanta posted a much more comfortable PROE of -2% and Penix’s average target depth was an aggressive 12.7.

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Starting: Joe Flacco, Colts

Anthony Richardson is out again, giving Flacco what will likely be his last start with the Colts. Expect him to hurl like always. This year, Flacco ranks 10th in long-distance throw percentage (13.5) and 13th in mid-range throw percentage (22.6 percent). The Jags are terrible at blocking these throws. They rank 31st in YPA (12) and 27th in explosive play rate (37.8 percent) allowed on throws over 10 yards downfield.

Seated: Caleb Williams, Bears

The Bears have an implied team total of 15.5 points this week. There are at least 10 teams starting a backup quarterback with a higher implied team total. The Packers rank fourth in EPA per dropback allowed and have given up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing passers.

Seated: Geno Smith, Seahawks

The Seahawks have mostly abandoned their fun, pass-heavy approach. Since week 11, their success rate has been above expectations at zero. After 10 weeks it was +4%. Geno’s numbers, in turn, have fallen sharply.

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The reduction in volume has not led to better efficiency either. Both Smith’s YPA and touchdown rate have dropped and changed over the last month.

Run back

Starting: Michael Carter, Cardinals

The Cardinals will be without James Conner, Trey Benson and Emari DeMercado this week, all of whom are on IR. That leaves only Carter and DeeJay Dallas for the backfield. Head coach Jonathan Gannon has already mentioned that he is getting a lot of action this week.

Vegas has Arizona as a four-point favorite at home against a 49ers team led by a backup quarterback.

Starting: Jaleel McLaughlin, Broncos

Speaking of leadbacks who can prevail against teams that are missing their starting quarterback, McLaughlin and the Broncos have a 14.5-point advantage at home. The Chiefs, who have already secured the bye, are giving Patrick Mahomes and probably many other starters a rest. McLaughlin returned from a quad injury last week and led the Broncos with 10 runs. Before missing a game due to the injury, he led Denver with seven attempts in Week 15. Although he’s still on a committee, this is a great place for McLaughlin to increase his overall touch.

Seated: Rico Dowdle, Cowboys

In Week 17, the Cowboys showed us what they had left in their tank without CeeDee Lamb, and the answer was clearly “nothing.” They ranked 30th in dropback EPA and 20th in rushing EPA. Dallas made it into the red zone with two drives, one of which Dowdle botched. The Cowboys are six-point dogs to the Commanders this week and fullback Hunter Luepke is stealing Dowdle’s work on passing downs.

Sitting: Joe Mixon, Texans

Mixon and the rest of Houston’s starters are expected to play this week. The question is, for how long? My money is no more than a quarter. The Texans have a firm grip on the No. 4 seed and can’t move any further up or down. All Texans can remain on the bench until the playoffs.

Wide receiver

Starting: Drake London, Falcons

London was already the Falcons’ No. 1 receiver before Penix took over, but he has reached a new level of target dominance under the rookie. London has seen 35 percent of destinations and 39 percent of airports in the last two weeks. He was also responsible for 3 of 5 end zone targets and has a 43 percent share of first read targets. As far as the eye can see, it’s the Falcons’ Week 18 stack.

Start: Olamide Zaccheus, Commander

London is the obvious place to start. If you want a sick salary, Zaccheus is the man. Noah Brown is done for the year and Dyami Brown is devastated, so the WR2 role in Washington is still open. Zaccheus has taken advantage of the opportunity, completing a route on 75 percent of Commanders’ dropbacks over the last two weeks. He has a 25 percent target share with two games over 23 points in that span.

Seated: Jerry Jeudy, Browns

Is Bailey Zappe an upgrade over Dorian Thompson-Robinson? It is possible. DTR ranks 84th in EPA per dropback since 2020, also known as dead last. Zappe is at the top of… 80. Sportsbooks aren’t buying this, however, as the Browns are currently 20 point underdogs to the Ravens. They are quickly heading towards one of the lowest team finishes in the last decade.

Realistically, the bad quarterback who will give your team a better chance of winning is the one who has been practicing with the team all year as a backup and eventual starter. Zappe didn’t join the Browns until late October. With a Ravens defense that has turned things around over the last month, I can’t in good conscience recommend playing a wide receiver on the worst team in football.

Sitting: DK Metcalf, Seahawks

Metcalf hasn’t been the same since coming back from his knee injury in Week 11. In his last seven games, Metcalf has had a 20 percent target percentage and has been targeted on 18 percent of his routes. These numbers were each three percent higher before the injury. His yards per route run dropped from 1.98 to 1.58. The knee injury and the JSN acquisition buried Metcalf in the WR3 ranks entering Week 18.

Tight end

Starting: Juwan Johnson, Saints

The Saints have been forced to use Johnson more often as a receiver in the last month due to numerous injuries to their primary receivers. He has completed a route on 79 percent of the Saints’ dropbacks since Week 13 and has been in the slot on nearly half of them. Johnson has a 17 percent target share in his last five games and increased that to 29 percent in Week 17.

Starting: Payne Durham, Bucs

Durham has completed a route on 78 percent of the Bucs’ pass plays over the past two weeks and has a target share of 12 percent. Last week he scored his first career touchdown. With an implied team total of around 30, Durham is a good stacking partner for Baker Mayfield.

Sitting: Mike Gesicki, Bengals

Gesicki had 10 catches for 86 yards last week. This type of production was not the norm for him with Tee Higgins.

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He posted a 24 percent target percentage versus Denver. It was his first game with Higgins on the field and a target percentage of over 14 percent. Considering how clear his differences are with and without Higgins, I’m betting Week 17 will be the outlier.

Seated: Kyle Pitts, Falcons

We don’t think Pitts’ prime-time exploits are an indication of future success. He caught a game-winning touchdown against the Commanders and scored 14.4 fantasy points. He ran only 66 percent of the routes and achieved a modest target share of 15 percent. Pitts makes Payne Durham available to a team that wants fewer passes and fewer points.

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