The coldest start to December in decades in the U.S. has many wondering whether wintry conditions will last through the holidays and create a picture-perfect winter wonderland, but Mother Nature will have the final say.

During an average holiday season, just over a quarter of the country has snow on the ground. But whether temperatures are cold enough to allow frozen precipitation depends on the larger patterns that have occurred somewhat randomly over the past few years.

Sometimes the land can get lucky and moisture can combine with arctic air to create a winter wonderland, such as in 2009 when an estimated 63% was covered in snowfall, but in 2023 only 17% saw measurable snow, making it too one of them has the fewest public holidays since records began.

Air mass patterns typically last days to a few weeks. Therefore, it is unrealistic to expect December to continue what has already been established in the first week, as the country as a whole is likely to experience several ups and downs before the holidays arrive.

What are the chances of a white Christmas?

With holidays like Christmas, Hanukkah and Kwanzaa just over two weeks away, the forecast looks pretty complicated, with at least one, if not several, pattern changes before the end of December.

Climate models continue to indicate that December will be warmer than average overall, meaning the heat will persist in the second half of the month to make up for snowfall surpluses and temperature deficits accumulated in the first few days of the month.

For most, computer models such as the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Global Forecast System (GFS) show that the heat actually arrives in the second half of the week of December 9th.

The FOX Forecast Center expects a strong ridge of high pressure to form along the East Coast, covering most of the country with temperatures 5 to 15 degrees above average.

The warm temperatures take some of the Christmas freshness out of the air and lead to extensive melting of snow.

Most of the country’s 21.5% snowpack will simply evaporate as temperatures more reminiscent of October arrive, but the big question remains how long the warm weather will last.

Will warming extend into the week of December 23, or will a sharp frontal boundary cause temperatures to drop to seasonal norms?

This is where longer-term tools related to the polar vortex and world oscillations come into play, giving forecasters a sense of what to expect in the longer term.

Christmas lawn decorations are sometimes no match for Mother Nature

The combination of neutral or La Niña status for ENSO, lack of polar vortex disruption, lack of extensive snow cover, and overall changing climate patterns all point to a Christmas that is unlikely to deviate much from the norms.

There are currently no clear signs that cities that don’t normally have a white Christmas will experience one this year. The best chances continue to be those that normally experience frozen precipitation.

For example, the last snowy Christmas in New York City was in 2009, a year that set a modern record for the snowiest holiday season and is unlikely to be repeated in 2024.

Residents of Minneapolis or even Buffalo, which have the best chance of snow each year, will likely be in a better position to see frozen precipitation, unlike more southern cities like Charlotte or Atlanta.

Those planning to celebrate the holidays in shorts should head to Florida or the Southwest, where temperatures won’t hit record lows and will even have a better chance of reaching above average rather than below average levels on December 25th.

Those interested in more specific holiday weather impacts should keep an eye on the FOX Forecast Center’s forecasts for the week of December 16, where a team of FOX meteorologists can pinpoint who could receive precipitation and what temperatures will be for Christmas and over and beyond.

Original source of the article: Find out what the Christmas forecast has in store for the USA