Two possible scenarios for ice timing

But let’s take a step back and talk about where to start with this winter storm system. Overall, there are two main options for the timing of the storm. Option one calls for the winter storm system to develop isolated freezing rain, sleet or a wintry mix across our southern counties by late morning. Between 12:00 p.m. and 2:00 p.m. the freezing rain may reach the subway, creating a widespread risk of freezing rain and sleet for the rest of the day until around 11:00 p.m. This would result in significant ice accumulations around the metro, which could reach approximately half an inch to a full inch of ice accumulation, with ice accumulation in areas to the south being closer to 1 to 3 inches of ice accumulation.

However, option two says we won’t see freezing rain or a wintry mix in our southern counties until this afternoon at 3 or 4 p.m. It then builds up to I-70, where there will be isolated threats of freezing rain and sleet between 6 and 8 p.m. This event will continue overnight, with us finally seeing a transition to snow early Sunday morning between the hours of 1 a.m. and 4 a.m. In this scenario, it is more likely that a layer of ice up to a tenth of an inch thick will be seen on the north side of the subway. On I-70 downtown, ice accumulation could be closer to about a tenth to a quarter of an inch, and south of the loop, ice accumulation would be between half an inch and an inch.

It’s very possible that we’re seeing one of these two outputs, a combination of both, or even an abstract transition that wasn’t necessarily accounted for in either of these models. Until the actual winter storm system develops in the area, all options remain open.

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Snowfall expectations

The same statement can be made as we move into snow and how much snow we will see across the region. This morning we adjusted snowfall amounts in our forecasts, which take long-term and short-term data into account. Unfortunately, the total amount of snow has not decreased and actually appears to be increasing.

Last night, Chief Meteorologist Luke Dorris told you snowfall amounts ranging from 7 inches to 12 inches, with pockets of 12 inches possible. This morning it is more likely that snow depths of around 20cm will be exceptionally common, with pockets of snow as high as 35cm in certain areas.

North of the metro and south of Saint Joseph could see snowfall amounts between 15 and 20 inches. And remember: At the same time the snowfall tapers off, we’ll be dealing with wind gusts up to 40 mph through Sunday afternoon.

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temperatures

Temperatures for the winter storm system will feature highs in the upper 20s this afternoon, falling into the teens and lows into the 20s tomorrow. Low temperatures between 5° and 12° are expected in the morning.

On Monday morning temperatures of -10° to -20° are common, as well as high temperatures, barely in double digits. For this reason, a first day weather warning was issued for the entire Monday due to the extreme cold.

Cold conditions like these will continue throughout the work week, so we don’t expect the snow to go away any time soon.

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