Five reasons why Duke basketball will beat the Kansas Jayhawks on Tuesday

Five reasons why Duke basketball will beat the Kansas Jayhawks on Tuesday

Small sample sizes always leave fan bases with conflicting feelings entering a season, but few blue-blood basketball programs have experienced ups and downs like the Blue Devils did in 2024-25.

Duke, now led by 17-year-old phenom Cooper Flagg, shut out its first two opponents before jumping to a nine-point halftime lead against the Kentucky Wildcats. A collapse in the final 10 minutes allowed first-year Kentucky coach Mark Pope to snatch the decisive win from under Jon Scheyer’s nose, and suddenly excitement turned to concern as fans questioned whether the freshman class could pull off the victory .

However, with questions abounding, the Blue Devils flew to Tucson and beat one of the program’s biggest Dragons. Former North Carolina Tar Heels star Caleb Love, who now plays for Arizona, scored just eight points as Duke defeated the Wildcats in a 69-55 game.

With spirits now rising, Duke travels to Las Vegas for a night game against No. 1 Kansas. While the Jayhawks remain undefeated this season, Flagg scored at least 24 points against his previous two top-25 opponents. Who says the superstar newbie can’t do it again?

Here are five reasons why the Duke Blue Devils will defeat the top-ranked team in the country on Tuesday night.

Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images

The Arizona Wildcats entered last Friday’s game with one of the best rebounding margins in the country with an offensive rebound rate over 50%, but the Blue Devils came away with the win in Tucson. Duke finished the game with 43 rebounds to Arizona’s 30, largely due to the backcourt. Kon Knueppel grabbed seven boards, Tulane transfer Sion James finished with six, and returning starters Tyrese Proctor and Caleb Foster grabbed four each to contribute to the win.

Conveniently, the Jayhawks have one of the lowest offensive rebound rates in the country so far. The size of this Duke basketball squad is often mentioned, but the advantage is particularly evident at the smaller positions. Flagg and Khaman Maluach can crash the glass, but with each guard standing at least 6-foot-3, no team can keep up with the Blue Devils if every member of the backcourt is willing to dive for the ball.

Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images

Cooper Flagg leads the Blue Devils with 17.8 points per game, but he finished with 26 points against Kentucky and 24 points against Arizona. He shot 46.3% from the floor against both Wildcats teams, an improvement over his 42.4% against unranked opponents. His first half in Tucson wasn’t particularly efficient, but he scored 16 points after halftime to secure the win.

He made several big shots to answer Arizona’s 3-pointers down the stretch, and he scored 12 of Duke’s final 14 points against Kentucky. The best freshman in the country has already overcome several tough tests in his first few games, and the Blue Devils have a guy they can turn to when they need a basket.

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In games between national championship contenders, the offensive ceiling is incredibly important, and Duke’s offense can surpass that of the Jayhawks. Kansas currently has an effective field goal percentage of 57.3%, slightly higher than Duke’s 55.6%, but the shot distribution is heading the Blue Devils down the road to chaos. The Blue Devils made 47.0% of their shots from behind the 3-point line, while the Jayhawks made just 33.2% of their shots from behind the line, one of the lowest marks in the country.

Granted, Duke’s defense has yet to stop Hunter Dickinson and Co. (more on that later), but aside from the loss at Kentucky, the Blue Devils have made 40.8% of their triples and can put up points quicker than Kansas when they get hot .

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Through five games this season, the Blue Devils have given up 57.4 points per game and allowed their opponents to shoot 34.7% from the floor and 25.8% from 3-point range. The best performance of any Duke opponent this season came from Kentucky when it shot 39.7% and held Wofford to 35 points, a program record in the shot clock. Of course, there is some luck and blatant misses involved, but when Maluach is on the floor, he allows the other four athletes around him to harass opponents on the edge. If any team can slow Kansas down, it’s the team from Durham.

Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

When the Blue Devils lost to Kentucky, the main problem was with everyone around Flagg. Scheyer built the 2024-25 roster with the idea that some of these other elite rookies would contribute against great teams, and while that’s a tall order in the opening games, that’s still a learning curve to focus on left the squad.

Knueppel, another five-star talent, initially seemed a bit disappointing in this regard. After making one of his eight attempts in the second half against Kentucky, he scored two points on four shots in the first 20 minutes against Arizona.

However, fans watched this learning curve in real time in the second half. The ACC Rookie of the Week from the opening week returned to form and made three of his four 3-pointers to finish the game with 13 points and several big shots to keep the Wildcats at bay. If he can remain a reliable threat in the final 10 minutes, be on your guard.

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