Let’s face it: If this were an Independence-era bowl game, BYU fans would be having a parade down Center Street. A standalone Saturday night game on ABC against a ranked Colorado team and Heisman Trophy winner in Travis Hunter could be a top-five BYU bowl game. Of course everyone wanted to face Colorado in a Big 12 title game, but I think the fans will have to settle for that. Too bad (heavy sarcasm).

A BYU win against Colorado would go a long way toward alleviating a disappointing end to an otherwise magical season. A win tonight secures an 11-win season, a top-15 finish and enough offseason momentum to likely give BYU a preseason ranking that, unfortunately, is a lot more important than you think. Here are four reasons why I think BYU can do it.

Advanced Analytics believes this is a good fit for BYU. BYU’s offense ranks 22nd in Expected Added Points (EPA) per rush, compared to 43rd for Colorado’s defense against the run. Meanwhile, BYU’s defense ranks 27th in EPA per rush and 12th in EPA per drop back, compared to 73rd and 25th for Colorado’s offense. The only EPA edge Colorado has is its 24th national ranking in defensive EPA per dropback, compared to BYU’s 36th in offense. BYU also ranks 14th nationally in net yards per game, compared to 27th. In less data geek terms, BYU averages bigger plays per game than Colorado. The question then becomes whether Jake Retzlaff can continue to generate the big plays without the costly mistakes that plagued BYU in November.

You’d be hard-pressed to find a quarterback who has been under more pressure this season than Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders. Colorado ranks 124th nationally in sacks allowed (3.5 per game), while QB hurries are possible on over a third of Sanders’ dropbacks. Under pressure, Sanders’ completion rate drops from 80% to 54% while his turnover play rate nearly doubles. Most concerning for Colorado is that over 20% of allowed pressures result in sacks. That’s welcome news for a BYU defense that has been able to put pressure on quarterbacks all season but has had trouble shutting down opposing quarterbacks. If BYU can keep Colorado off schedule through QB pressure on early downs, Colorado’s 39 percent 3rd/4th down conversion rate won’t be enough to keep Colorado’s high-flying offense on the field.

You may not like it, but sometimes the easiest way to play defense is to never let an opposing offense onto the field. If any team is good at this, it’s BYU. BYU is the third-best offense in the country at generating scoring drives and ranks 23rd in available yards gained per drive. Translation: BYU moves the ball as well as anyone in the country. The struggles came last month with execution in the red zone, with blunders and turnovers. With a consistent running game, BYU will be able to keep Colorado’s offense off the field for long stretches. Whether they win or not depends on whether they can capitalize on touchdowns on those long drives like they did earlier in the season.

Colorado ranks last nationally in rush yards per game (71) and third-to-last in yards per rush (2.6). I don’t think this gets any better against a BYU defense that ranks in the top 50 in both areas. Instead of the running game, Colorado has relied on the quick passing game to fill the void created by an ineffective running game. Over 60% of Sanders’ passes are 10 yards or less, with a hit rate of nearly 20%. These throws are incredibly efficient for Colorado, as nearly 90% of these throws are made to a variety of elusive wide receivers, led by Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter with room to maneuver.

BYU’s ability to operate at the edges in space will be critical. BYU is stronger than you think in this regard. BYU’s linebacking trio of Jack Kelly, Isaiah Glasker and Harrison Taggart all possess exceptional speed, while three of BYU’s top four cornerbacks all have tackle ratings above 70 on PFF. If BYU can limit screen play and force Colorado into riskier throws downfield, there will be more opportunities for an elite BYU secondary to make the game-changing plays they have been making all season.

If BYU’s pass rush can’t reach Shedeur Sanders and BYU turns the ball over multiple times, the game could go the wrong way. On the other hand, if BYU plays successful and clean run-oriented football, Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders won’t be on the field enough to do any real damage.

Teams that beat Colorado are teams that dominate football. Nebraska, Kansas and Kansas State combined for 665 yards and had a combined time of possession of +40. This is BYU’s path to victory. BYU won’t rush for 330 yards like Kansas, but they can reach the 150-yard mark set by Nebraska. BYU has averaged 172.5 yards rushing per game over the last 8 games and has completed at least 2 9+ play drives in each game during that span. Don’t overcomplicate it. Run the (redacted) ball and let Jay Hill and LJ Martin lead BYU to its second 11-win season in the last 15 years.

BYU 27-Colorado 24