Georgia CFP scouting guide: Do the Bulldogs want to play Notre Dame or Indiana?

Georgia CFP scouting guide: Do the Bulldogs want to play Notre Dame or Indiana?

ATHENS, Ga. – Three weeks ago, Georgia advanced to the SEC Championship, survived an eight-overtime win and then got to watch a game at home – Texas vs. Texas A&M – where the winner would be its next opponent.

By winning this game, Georgia earned the right to hold another watch party for its next opponent. This time there is more at stake and the opponents are less familiar – somehow. (The last time Georgia played Notre Dame was the same season it last played Texas A&M in 2019.)

The College Football Playoff quarterfinals could not only be a repeat of the 1981 Sugar Bowl, when Georgia defeated Notre Dame to win the national championship, but also the teams’ third meeting in less than eight years.

Or it could be the first-ever meeting between Georgia and Indiana.

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Storylines are one thing. But what about the actual matchup? Based on the regular season, here’s how each potential opponent compares to the Bulldogs:

Running QB dilemma

This is no secret: quarterbacks who can run are the kryptonite for this Georgia defense and have been for years.

Georgia Tech’s Haynes King posted a season-high 114 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns in the eight-overtime thriller. Alabama’s Jalen Milroe had 117 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns on 16 attempts. They weren’t the only ones: Jaxson Dart had 50 rushing yards on seven attempts in Ole Miss’ win over Georgia, Kentucky’s Brock Vandagriff had 70 yards on 10 carries and Auburn’s Payton Thorne had 45 yards on 10 carries.

The downside: Texas’ Quinn Ewers isn’t much of a runner, nor is Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, and these were arguably Georgia’s three best defensive games, including two against Ewers.


Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard has 769 rushing yards this season. (Gary A. Vasquez/Imagn Images)

Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard can run: He ran for 769 yards this season and ranked 13th nationally among quarterbacks in sack-adjusted rushing yardage. Over his last three years at Duke, Leonard amassed 1,224 rushing yards (counting sacks) in 21 starts and six other appearances.

Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke, on the other hand, is not a great runner: 109 yards and a few touchdowns on 23 runs, not counting sacks.

So there is a clear preference for Georgia here.

The Stockton Factor

This is the placeholder. Georgia’s offense was already unpredictable, and now it’s evolving from a pure pocket quarterback in Carson Beck to a dual-threat player in Gunner Stockton. Georgia was a much better passing team during the regular season, but with Stockton and a healthier backfield, this offense could be more balanced.

Stockton’s mobility could be an advantage against both pass rushes: Indiana ranks 22nd nationally with 34 sacks and Notre Dame ranks 37th.

So which defense is better equipped to stop Georgia? Both potential opponents are highly ranked: Notre Dame is ninth nationally in defensive yards per game and Indiana is 12th. Notre Dame ranks third nationally in scoring defense and Indiana ranks sixth.

Those appear to be advantages over a Georgia offense that ranks just 44th in offensive yards per play and 29th in scoring. But the quality of the competition must also be taken into account:

• Georgia faced the best defense in the country (Texas) twice, as well as two others in the top five (Ole Miss and Tennessee) and three others in the top 30 (Alabama, Auburn and Clemson).

• Notre Dame faced the third-best offense in the country (Louisville) but only one other ranked in the top 30 (USC 25, although Navy is ranked 31st). Four of the offenses the Irish have faced are ranked 100 or lower (Purdue, Virginia, Stanford and Florida State).

• Indiana faced the No. 8 offense in the country (Ohio State), but otherwise faced no one ranked in the top 50 and four teams ranked in the top 100 or lower.

Georgia’s offense is battle-tested but unimpressive. The two potential defenses it faces are formidable, but not particularly battle-tested.

More on UGA’s offense

Consider all of the game plan strengths above, and here’s how Georgia compares to the run and pass:

When Georgia runs: Indiana is much better equipped on paper, ranking 4th nationally in opponent yards per rushing attempt, and Notre Dame is 84th. That brings with it a qualification: the Irish had to play against Army and Navy. The Irish must bring back Howard Cross, one of the best defensive tackles in the country who has missed the last four games with an ankle injury.

When Georgia comes over: Both seem to be a tough duel. Notre Dame ranks second nationally in opponent yards per attempt, and Indiana is tied for third. That seems like a bad sign for a Georgia team that struggles with drop-offs and probably doesn’t have the strongest passer.

But again, it comes down to strength of schedule: Notre Dame has fielded six passing attacks that ranked 75th or worse in yards per game and four that ranked 102nd or worse. Safety Xavier Watts is a bona fide star, but Notre Dame’s starting cornerbacks are a sophomore and a freshman.

As for Indiana, it has put up some numbers against poor passing teams: five that rank 97th or worse. It faced Ohio State, the ninth-ranked passing team, and Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard had an efficient day: 22-for-26 for 201 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.

More on UGA’s defense

Indiana has the second-best offense in the country, and that comes with some credibility: Ohio State is the best defense it has faced (No. 2 nationally), plus No. 23 Michigan and No. 27 Washington, four others in the top 60 and only four two under 100.

Notre Dame ranks just 71st nationally in offensive yards per play. The top two defenses it faced were No. 8 Northern Illinois and No. 13 Miami (Ohio), with only three others ranked in the top 60.

Indiana is the bigger passing threat: Behind Rourke’s arm, the Hoosiers are second nationally in yards per attempt, behind only Ole Miss. The Fighting Irish rank just 71st in yards per attempt.

Still, Leonard’s running ability is what would be of most concern to Kirby Smart, especially since Leonard’s running ability was particularly strong in the red zone (14 rushing touchdowns), which could pierce a Georgia defense that has been a difficult task to date. T-break unit. Opponents have a 47 percent touchdown percentage in the red zone, with the SEC Championship showing the best performance: Texas made four field goals while missing two more.

Notre Dame ranks third nationally in runs per attempt. Indiana is tied for 57th. And in case anyone needed a reminder, Georgia’s defensive strategy is based on stopping the run.

Common enemy factor

Georgia and Indiana don’t have one. Georgia and Notre Dame have one thing: Georgia Tech, and the Fighting Irish fared better, posting a 31-13 win at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in October. That’s more impressive than Georgia having to come back from 14 points with five minutes left in regulation time and then win in essentially a penalty shootout in overtime.

The big caveat: King, a dual-threat quarterback, was injured when Notre Dame played in Atlanta.

The end result

Opinions and impressions may change after watching Friday night’s game. But purely on paper, this seems like an easy decision for Georgia fans: Notre Dame is the tougher matchup. Leonard’s running ability alone might be enough, but the Irish are closer to Georgia than the Hoosiers in terms of talent: Notre Dame is ranked ninth in the 247Sports Team Composite and Indiana is ranked 57th.

Georgia is second. On the other hand, the Bulldogs almost lost at home to Georgia Tech (46th), beat Kentucky (24th) by just 1, and were routed by Ole Miss (20th). Maybe this unpredictable Georgia team will stop in the playoffs.

Or maybe not.

(Top photo by Kirby Smart: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)

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