The Giants agree Justin Verlander with a one-year contract, pending a physical examination. Verlander, an ISE Baseball client, will reportedly receive a $15 million guarantee.

The future Hall of Famer will play his age 42 season in San Francisco. Verlander has previously indicated that he hopes to pitch until he is 45 years old. There was never any doubt that he would eventually get another one-year contract. It always seemed unlikely that things would continue in Houston. Verlander had a brilliant run with the Astros during his first half with the Mets in 2023. However, he has had a challenging season, which led Houston to let him walk.

Verlander took the ball 17 times and posted a 5.48 earned-run average over 90 1/3 innings. He was on the injured list twice with shoulder inflammation and then was out for two months between June and August with a neck problem. Opponents marked him for an ERA over 8.00 in his seven starts after he returned from the latter injury. Verlander acknowledged after the season that he came back too soon as he tried to contribute to Houston’s playoff push.

San Francisco believes it has more left in the tank with a healthy offseason. Verlander is just a year removed from an outstanding season. In 2023, he posted a 3.22 ERA over 162 1/3 innings with New York and Houston. This was accompanied by a strikeout rate of 21.5%, which was well below Verlander’s previous level. That suggested a regression from his Cy Young form, but he still had a lot of success this year with less swing-and-miss stuff.

Verlander averaged 93.5 MPH with his four-seam fastball last season. That’s a slight decrease from the 94-95 MPH range it was in between 2022 and 2023, but it’s not completely off the table. The reason for this drop could be pitching at less than full power. If Verlander is fully healthy in 2025, it’s not unreasonable to expect his velocity to rebound.

Health is an obvious caveat for a 42-year-old pitcher. Verlander has already exceeded expectations once, coming back from Tommy John surgery to win his third Cy Young in 2022 at age 39. While it’s unlikely he’ll repeat that type of performance, he could be an asset as a mid-rotating arm and veteran presence on a staff that’s lost Blake Snell.

Logan Webb will come back to be the team’s No. 1 player. Verlander and Robbie Ray Place in the middle of the rotation as high-profile veterans trying to recover from injuries. Former top candidate Kyle Harrison should be the fourth starter. Buster Posey, president of baseball operations, said last month that the Giants intend to move on from hard-throwing sinkerballers Jordan Hicks another chance for a rotation spot. Younger arms Landen Roupp, Mason Black And Hayden birdsong could push Hicks for the fifth starter role.

This is the second free agent move of Posey’s first winter in baseball. His big achievement was signing a seven-year contract Willy Adames at shortstop. Posey has publicly indicated that further strengthening the offense was a bigger priority than rotation, but they obviously liked the value of rolling the dice on Verlander for a year.

San Francisco had around $208 million in luxury tax liabilities today, according to RosterResource calculations. This will bring them to around $223 million, which is a little less than $20 million below the base threshold of $241 million. Verlander’s deal is in line with the $15 million salaries of veteran starters Alex Cobb And Charlie Morton also landed earlier this winter.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan initially reported that the Giants and Verlander had agreed to a one-year deal. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reported the salary at $15 million. Image courtesy of Imagn.