Here’s everything you need to know about the NFL playoff races

Here’s everything you need to know about the NFL playoff races

Week 17 is here, which means the playoff race is entering the final stages. In the AFC, the 9-6 Chargers and Broncos hold a two-game lead over the 7-8 Colts, Dolphins and Bengals in the final two wild cards.

But if the Patriots can somehow beat the Chargers on Saturday at Gillette Stadium and/or the Bengals beat the Broncos, that would keep the Colts, Dolphins and possibly Bengals in the playoff race.

Conversely, wins by the Broncos and Chargers on Saturday would lock up the playoff field and render the remainder of Week 17 and all of Week 18 meaningless in most AFC cities.

“Obviously we would like to be in a better situation, but we still have life,” Dolphins defensive tackle Calais Campbell said. “So we’re going to act the way we do and we’re going to continue to prepare and fight with everything we’ve got. It’s football, crazier things have happened. I’ve experienced it before.”

The playoff picture came into sharper focus Wednesday as the Chiefs secured the AFC’s No. 1 seed and the Ravens passed the Steelers to take the AFC North lead.

Let’s take a closer look at the playoff storylines heading into Week 17:

AFC

▪ The Chargers and Broncos, currently No. 6 and No. 7, can clinch wild-card spots with a win in their final two games.

The Chargers land in New England and Las Vegas, so it’s unlikely they lose both. The Chargers would also clinch a wild card if the Dolphins and Colts lose or tie on Sunday.

The Broncos face a tough test in Cincinnati on Saturday and then host the Chiefs in Week 18. The Chiefs’ win on Wednesday increases the chances that they will rest Patrick Mahomes and several starters each week starting Sunday in Denver.

▪ The Colts have to win both games, which is likely – at the Giants and at home against the Jaguars. But they need the Chargers or Broncos to lose.

▪ The Dolphins have to win (at the Browns, at the Jets), the Chargers or Broncos have to lose and the Colts have to lose a game.

▪ The Bengals must win (against the Broncos, at Steelers), the Chargers or Broncos must lose and the Colts and Dolphins must lose a game.

▪ The Ravens improved to 11-5 with a win over the Texans on Wednesday and took a one-game lead over the 10-6 Steelers (who lost to the Chiefs) in the AFC North. That puts the Ravens at No. 3, which comes with a home game in the first round (probably against the Broncos or Chargers), and drops the Steelers to No. 5, where they would almost certainly have to play on the road against No. 4 Houston (which wouldn’t be a bad draw). The Steelers would then have to travel to Kansas City in the Divisional Round, while the Ravens would likely travel to Buffalo.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens now control the AFC North race.David J. Phillip/Associated Press

The Ravens still need to beat the Browns next week to clinch the AFC North title. If the Ravens and Steelers (who host the Bengals) have the same record, the Steelers win the tiebreaker due to a better conference record.

NFC

▪ The number 1 seed, who has a bye and home advantage in the first round, is about to be eliminated. The 13-2 Lions are ahead of the 13-2 Vikings due to their straight win earlier this season. And the Lions will clinch home-field advantage on Sunday based on the division record tiebreaker if they win (at the 49ers) and the Vikings lose (at the Packers).

But if both teams win this weekend, it would be a winner-take-all showdown in Week 18 when the Lions host the Vikings. The loser gets the No. 5 seed and will likely play a wild-card game with the NFC South champions, the Falcons or Buccaneers (the Rams are also a possibility).

▪ The 12-3 Eagles can still win the No. 1 seed, but face losses to the Lions and the Vikings to the Packers this weekend.

AJ Brown and the Eagles can clinch the NFC East with another win or another loss for the Commanders.Daniel Kucin Jr./Associated Press

More likely, the Eagles will secure the NFC East title and the No. 2 seed with just one win in the next two weeks (vs. Cowboys, v. Giants) or one loss by the Commanders (vs. Falcons, at Cowboys).

▪ The Vikings/Lions and 11-4 Packers have secured two wild card spots. The 10-5 Commanders hold a two-game lead over the 8-7 Buccaneers for the final spot and need another Buccaneers win or loss or tie to secure their first playoff appearance in four years.

▪ The 8-7 Falcons are tied with the Buccaneers for the record, but overtook them last week on a head-to-head matchup to take the lead in the NFC South. The Falcons can secure the division title and the No. 4 seed with another win (at the Commanders vs. the Panthers) or another loss at the Buccaneers (at the Panthers vs. the Saints). The Falcons cannot win a wild card spot – a win secures them the division, a loss knocks them out of wild card contention.

▪ The Buccaneers can still win the NFC South if they win and the Falcons lose once. The Buccaneers can also win the final wild card spot if they win and the Commanders lose.

▪ The 9-6 Rams have a one-game lead over the 8-7 Seahawks in the NFC West and can clinch the division title and No. 3 seed with a win Saturday night against the Cardinals. But if the Rams lose, it would be a winner-take-all in Week 18 – Seahawks at Rams for the NFC West title and a home game in the first round.

Puka Nacua can clinch the NFC West title and No. 3 seed with a win Saturday night against the Cardinals.Adam Hunger/Associated Press

There is another scenario in which the Rams can win the NFC West based on the strength of the win tiebreaker on Sunday. The Rams need to beat the Cardinals and ensure that at least four of the following teams win this weekend: Vikings, Bills, 49ers, Commanders, Bengals and Browns.

It’s NFC West or Bust for both teams, as the Seahawks can’t win a wild card spot and the Rams have less than a 1 percent chance.


Ben Volin can be reached at [email protected].

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *