As of January, more than 770,000 people were living in shelters or outside, according to a report annual federal report on homelessness by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development. The number has increased by 18% Census from last year – which also marked an increase from the previous year – and is the highest number since HUD began compiling this report in 2007.

HUD released its report Friday, based on January’s Point-in-Time survey of cities across the country. The findings underscore a trend that homeless and affordable housing advocates have highlighted.

“Many families, many households and many individuals are still struggling. I think we’re still, for deeply poor people, in a real recovery from the pandemic,” says Jeff Olivet, who was until recently executive director of the United States Interagency Council on Homelessness.

He says homelessness has increased since 2017, driven by a massive shortage of affordable housing that has driven up prices. Research notes that as rents rise, homelessness also rises. That increase stalled during the pandemic, Olivet notes, as comprehensive federal aid helped keep people housed. But since this aid ended, people still have to reckon with higher prices for housing, food and other everyday goods.

HUD officials say another key factor is the recent increase in asylum seekers coming to the U.S., often fleeing dangerous conditions in their home countries. In 13 communities that reported being affected by migration, family homelessness more than doubled. Overall, it increased by 39%.

The number of people living outside – i.e. not in emergency accommodation – also increased; those considered chronically homeless; and unaccompanied young people. One bright spot was the decline in the number of unhoused veterans. This year, this figure has even fallen to a record low after years of intensive investment in subsidized housing and support services.

The report also said extreme weather disasters contributed to the increase, citing in particular last year’s fire on Maui, which still had 5,200 people in shelters as of the January count.

The annual report is widely seen as under-reporting and does not take into account people huddling with family or friends because they can no longer pay their rent.

According to HUD, numbers have likely decreased in some locations since that count

Despite the near-universal increase in homelessness, HUD and others say there is reason to believe that numbers in some places have fallen since the January count.

On the one hand, President Biden took action in June to limit asylum applications and limit illegal border crossings. Since then, Denver, Chicago and New York — which had been inundated with asylum seekers — reported sharp declines in migrants in shelters.

The increase in rental prices in recent years has also slowed, so that rents in some cities have remained almost unchanged or even fallen. And some places where homeless numbers have been rising for years saw a turnaround this year, including Phoenix, Los Angeles and Dallas.

“That means if we continue to invest properly to get people off the streets and into housing as quickly as possible, we can really see a decline in these numbers,” says Olivet.

Housing costs have risen due to inflation, interest rates and a tight construction labor supply. The Biden administration has urged cities to relax zoning regulations that restrict apartments and other lower-cost housing. In addition, spending on housing vouchers and other subsidies specifically for homeless people was increased. But there is also growing opposition to this kind of spending, including among allies of President-elect Donald Trump.

Trump has called for a different approach to homelessness

The report comes amid growing public frustration over homelessness and a wave of homelessness States and cities make it one Crime of sleeping outside in public spaces. President-elect Trump supports these bans on so-called street camping and a landmark Supreme Court Decision This year, cities were allowed to enforce them even when people have nowhere else to go. Since then, more and more people have been summoned or even arrested.

Trump’s allies also want to shift billions in federal homeless funding away from housing and toward treatment for drug addiction or mental illness. He has also talked about putting people in “mental hospitals.”

Housing advocates, including Olivet, worry that camping bans and funding changes will only make the problem worse. But “what we need is investment in a range of solutions for people,” he says. “We need all of this. It’s not an either/or mindset that will solve the problem.”