WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald Trump won’t be sworn in for another month, but a possible government shutdown is raising questions in Washington about how a funding shortfall could affect the opening of the next Congress, the certification of Trump’s election and his inauguration.

The short answer: probably not much.

That’s because the employees and functions that support the constitutional duties of the President and Congress – as well as life and property – are exempt from misconduct.

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Although the federal government has never shut down its businesses in January after a presidential election, Congress and previous administrations — including Trump’s — have plenty of experience with continuing operations during a shutdown.

On Capitol Hill, legislative experts have spent time trying to figure out what could happen in various scenarios. Here’s what we know — and what we don’t know — about the first shutdown of its kind before the inauguration.

The new congress

Pursuant to the 20th Amendment, the new Congress will meet on January 3rd at 12:00 p.m.

A shutdown would not, in and of itself, impact that process because neither lawmakers nor “essential” helpers are required to stop working during a shutdown. Some employees deemed “non-essential” would be furloughed, but only those whose jobs are not necessary to legislative, security and other functions related to Congress’ constitutional duties.

The government, which implements shutdown protocols for federal agencies, has no power over congressional staff.

The certification of the election results

While a loss of federal funding wouldn’t stop Congress from fulfilling its constitutional duties, the political chaos that led to this month’s shutdown fight could.

Before the representatives are sworn in on January 3rd, the House of Representatives will elect its speaker so that all further business can be conducted. But the current speaker, Mike Johnson, R-La., is in the hot seat — as evidenced by his fight for votes to keep the government open.

In 2023, it took Republicans five days — and 15 rounds of voting — to hand the gavel to then-Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., on Jan. 7.

That raises the prospect that the House may fail to elect a speaker before Jan. 6, the day set aside for Congress to certify the electoral votes that will make Trump president.

If there is no speaker, there is no one with the procedural authority to begin counting the votes. Without a speaker, newly elected representatives cannot be sworn in – meaning they could not cast an official vote to confirm the electoral votes or reopen the government.

No one expects that January 6, 2025, will be an echo of the same day in 2021 when a mob of pro-Trump loyalists stormed the Capitol in a vain attempt to prevent the certification of President Joe Biden’s defeat. But a different kind of chaos – a headless house – is a related possibility.

Because the Senate is a “continuous body” with two-thirds of its members not voting in November, it does not face the same procedural hurdles.

Parliamentary experts on Capitol Hill have told House leaders that there are possible workarounds if Republicans don’t reach consensus on who should serve as speaker by Jan. 6.

“One of the things the House can do when there are problems is elect a temporary speaker or a speaker whose purpose or duration is limited,” a former House staffer familiar with the situation said on condition of anonymity was granted to speak openly.

But as the expert said: “This is all new territory.”

The inauguration

Typically, the new president is sworn in by the Chief Justice of the United States on the West Front of the Capitol – a rare meeting of all three branches of government at the same time and place. This is a major national security event requiring intensive coordination among federal agencies and between the government, Capitol Police and law enforcement officials in Washington, DC.

Every federal security agency has employees who would be furloughed during a shutdown, but the Office of Management and Budget makes clear in its guidance to agencies that employees who support the president’s official actions and ensure public safety should remain their contributions.

For example, the Department of Homeland Security’s emergency shutdown plan calls for retaining 150,063 employees who are “necessary to protect life and property” and 152 who are “necessary to carry out the constitutional duties and powers of the President.”

Even the National Park Service, which oversees the National Mall grounds and adjacent attractions, has a plan in place to ensure that a closure does not cause contamination of the site. The Park Service can use “the minimum amount” of its money to “provide critical health, public safety and protective services as an exempt activity, in a manner that includes restrooms and sanitation, trash collection… law enforcement emergency response and protection of …maintains park resources.”

But before the inauguration, officials are busy preparing to transfer power and information to federal agencies. An administration official said that while the impact is still unclear, a shutdown will make work more difficult.

“A shutdown so close to the inauguration will be incredibly disruptive to the new administration,” this person said. “It will slow down the offboarding and onboarding process and make it significantly more difficult for agency landing teams to meet with their outgoing colleagues. We’re in some uncharted territory here, but that’s not how you prepare for taking office.”