How Denver can make the postseason in Week 18

The Denver Broncos started the 2024 NFL season with relatively low expectations. They were expected to use a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix, so many expected it to be a breakout year for the first-round pick in Sean Payton’s offense.

Instead, the Broncos emerged as a legitimate playoff contender in the AFC. Their defense has been one of the most cohesive units in the league and Nix has continued to grow in his first NFL season.

The Broncos can secure a spot in the playoffs for the third consecutive year. The matter is still entirely in their hands, but Denver could also find its way into the postseason if a few NFL teams lose.

How can the Broncos make the playoffs? Here’s a look at their playoff chances heading into Week 18.

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Broncos playoff chances

According to The Athletic’s playoff prediction model, the Broncos have a 74% chance of making the playoffs as of Week 18. This makes them the favorite for the AFC’s final playoff spot ahead of the Miami Dolphins (19% chance) and the Cincinnati Bengals (6% chance).

Broncos playoff odds

According to BetMGM Sportsbook, the Broncos are listed at -700 odds to make the postseason. This gives Denver an implied probability of 87.5% of qualifying for the playoffs, which is slightly more optimistic than The Athletic’s predictions.

In comparison, the Dolphins have a +650 chance of becoming the No. 7 seed in the AFC, while the Bengals are considered underdogs at +1600 odds.

How can the Broncos make the playoffs?

The Broncos are in control of their path to the playoffs. You need one of the following scenarios to unfold:

The Broncos win or draw against the Kansas City Chiefs;
The Dolphins and Bengals will lose or tie their Week 18 games.

Denver can take care of business simply by beating Kansas City in Week 18. The Broncos are expected to have the advantage in this contest as Andy Reid revealed that the Chiefs plan to rest their starters in Week 18, including star quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

This means Carson Wentz will start for the Chiefs. The No. 2 pick in the 2016 NFL Draft has plenty of starting experience but faces a strong Denver defense that will allow the fifth-fewest points per game (19.4) in 2024. That should give the Broncos a lead.

If the Broncos make a mistake, they can still make the postseason. They need both the Dolphins and Bengals to not win their matchups. Miami faces a coin toss game where they will be without the services of Tua Tagovailoa (Hip). Backup Tyler Huntley led the Dolphins to a victory over the Cleveland Browns. Still, the Jets will be a tougher matchup for them, especially with Aaron Rodgers potentially playing his final NFL game and going for his 500th career touchdown pass.

The Bengals didn’t have a walk in the park on Saturday night either. They face a Steelers team that is on a three-game losing streak but beat Cincinnati 44-38 in Week 13. Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense continue to play at a high level, but this looks like another coin toss game.

As mentioned, Denver won’t have to pay attention to the scoreboard if it wins on Sunday. However, if Cincinnati wins on Saturday night, Denver knows it has to win to get into the NFL playoffs.

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Potential playoff opponents for the Broncos

The Broncos can only be the No. 7 seed in the AFC if they make the NFL playoffs. That puts them on track to play against the Buffalo Bills if they make it to the postseason. Buffalo secured the No. 2 seed in the conference after its 40-14 win over the New York Jets in Week 17.

A Bills-Broncos matchup would pit the NFL’s second-best team (Buffalo, 31.8 points per game) and the league’s fifth-best defense (Denver, 19.4 points per game) against each other in a thrilling power-versus-strength duel compete. The outcome would likely depend on how Nix deals with Buffalo’s hostile and potentially frigid environment.

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NFL playoff picture week 18

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winner, No. 1 seed)*
Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East winner, No. 2 seed)*
Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*
Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South winner, No. 4 seed)*
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, Wild Card No. 1)*
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, Wild Card No. 2)*
Denver Broncos (9-7, Wild Card No. 3)

On the hunt: Miami Dolphins (8-8), Cincinnati Bengals (8-8).

NFC

Detroit Lions (14-2, NFC North leaders)*
Philadelphia Eagles (13-3, NFC East winners, No. 2 seed)*
Los Angeles Rams (10-6, NFC West winner)*
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7, NFC South leaders)
Minnesota Vikings (14-2, Wild Card No. 1)*
Washington Commanders (11-5, Wildcard No. 2)*
Green Bay Packers (11-5, Wild Card No. 3)*

On the hunt: Atlanta Falcons (8-8)

An asterisk

denotes teams that have secured a spot in the playoffs. Teams that won division titles are marked accordingly.

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How Denver can make the postseason in Week 18

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