new York
CNN
—

Joanne Molinaro’s life changed when she discovered TikTok.

She had risen to partner at a major Chicago law firm after working in corporate litigation for more than a decade. And it almost crushed her.

“I thought to myself … it’s lucky that I have this job that can pay my bills,” Molinaro said in an interview with CNN’s “Terms of Service” podcast. “And what if it sucks my soul and I want to curl up in the fetal position at night and cry? That’s okay because that’s what adults do.”

How many people were bored at home during the pandemic In the spring of 2020, Molinaro downloaded TikTok for fun. She mostly watched other people’s videos, but also posted some cooking videos of her own. But then one of her videos unexpectedly went viral.

A little over a year later, Molinaro withdrew from her company’s partnership to become a full-time TikTok creator. She has since built a brand around her profile: @TheKoreanVegan, with which she is publishing a cookbook the same name, and has more than 3 million followers on TikTok and Instagram.

Molinaro is just one of many TikTok influencers who are now bracing for a possible ban on the app in the US – and the associated loss of their six-figure income.

A US law that could ban TikTok is set to take effect on January 19 unless the app is sold or the law is blocked by the Supreme Court. On Friday, the Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on TikTok’s legal challenge to the law, which the company says violates its First Amendment rights and those of its 170 million American users. The US government argued that the app posed a risk to national security, because the parent company ByteDance is based in China.

“TikTok collects vast amounts of data on tens of millions of Americans that the (People’s Republic of China) could use for espionage or extortion,” the U.S. Department of Justice said in a filing with the Supreme Court. “And the PRC could secretly manipulate the platform to advance its geopolitical interests and harm the United States.”

But many TikTok users aren’t worried about the Chinese government, at least if the revenue they generate is any indication.

By TikTok’s own estimate, there are 7 million small businesses in the United States If the app is banned, about 2 million YouTubers would lose $300 million in revenue in just one month from using the app’s stand.

“A TikTok ban would be absolutely disastrous for creators and the small businesses that rely on it,” said Jess Maddox, an assistant professor at the University of Alabama who studies social media and internet culture. “I have spent my career speaking to creatives and influencers. They are resilient, they will change, but in the meantime things will be difficult and they will suffer a setback financially.”

TikTok’s popularity skyrocketed in 2020, thanks in large part to its unique algorithm that prioritizes displaying entertaining content to users regardless of whether it comes from an account they follow. It was different than the feeds of older major platforms that had done this was largely based on strengthening existing social connections. Users flocked to the app, as did developers, who found it much easier to quickly build an audience and achieve almost overnight success if they correctly predicted what the algorithm would want.

That’s what happened to Eli Rallo, who downloaded the app in 2020 when he was in his final year of college and stuck at home because of Covid-19.

“One evening I was playing around with my brothers…in our kitchen. And I made a video of us filling a jar of snacks with trail mix and I added music to it. It was kind of random, very humorous like Generation Z,” Rallo told CNN. “And the next day it had like 200,000 views. I was shocked. And then I just started making videos from there.”

Social media was Rallo’s full-time job since October 2021; She now has more than 1 million followers on TikTok and Instagram and is currently in the process of writing her second book.

“Without TikTok, my career simply wouldn’t be where it is today,” she said.

Rallo says she now tattoos regularly Five-figure deals with brands to promote their products on TikTok. It is part of the “creator economy,” which Goldman Sachs estimates could be worth $480 billion by 2027.

However, she fears that could change if the app is banned.

“I’m very worried, if I’m honest, about what would happen because I believe my financial situation would change,” she said. “I’m very lucky that I make money from my books, and I’m very lucky to make money from brands on Instagram. I think we would see an increase in deals on Instagram, but TikTok money is definitely the majority of my income.”

Molinaro said she is already seeing the financial impact of a potential ban, starting as early as April when President Joe Biden signed the “sale or ban” law. Molinaro estimates she will have taken in 30% less money from sponsors in 2024.

“These brands are not willing to spend money right now because they are afraid. “Oh, why would I spend money on a campaign that’s just going to fizzle out in a few days?” she said. “It directly influenced me, and I’m sure it influenced a lot of influencers.”

A TikTok ban could give a boost to competitors like YouTube, Facebook and Instagram.

But for people who make their income from TikTok, it can be difficult to fully rely on these other platforms.

It may take time to build a following large enough to attract major sponsors on other apps, such as: Your TikTok followers may or may not follow you. And other platforms’ algorithms often prioritize other things — perhaps longer videos or certain types of music — and it can take time for people to adjust their strategies.

“It’s not the same technology. They are not the same type of user. It’s not the same culture,” Maddox said.

And a ban could have far-reaching implications beyond individuals on TikTok. Lots of influencers employ teams to support their careers, such as agents, accountants and lawyers, to review brand deals.

“A lot of people think, Oh, a TikTok ban would mean these glamorous, frivolous influencers have to get real jobs,” Maddox said. “Yes, there is the top 1% who make a lot of money and live a very glamorous lifestyle. But the reality is that the people who will be most affected by a TikTok ban are those staunchly middle-class Americans who use it for information, for entertainment, to grow their business, their fan base, and grow their community. “

For now, Rallo and Molinaro say they are working to diversify their businesses and grow their following elsewhere, including other social platforms or email newsletters.

“Social media, someone once described it to me, it’s like building real estate on sand.” “You never know,” Molinaro said.