The fate of TikTok – and its 170 million American users – hangs in the balance as the Supreme Court considers the constitutionality of a law that would ban the platform in the United States if its China-based owner ByteDance does not sell it for U.S. use by January 19th.

If the court upholds the law — as a lower court did last month — TikTok’s days in the country would be numbered.

“As far as I know, we closed on January 19th,” TikTok lawyer Noel Francisco told the judges during Friday’s hearing.

That doesn’t mean the viral video app will automatically disappear from people’s phones or that individuals will risk a penalty just for signing up.

However, it will be more difficult for the platform’s users in the US to access the app, says Kate Ruane, director of the Free Expression Project at the Center for Democracy and Technology (which joined an amicus brief in support of TikTok and its users’ protected speech connected).

“I think the biggest obvious result of this law going into effect is that … accessing TikTok will require more technical skill,” Ruane told NPR. “And that alone is going to be too big of a hurdle for many, many people to continue to access TikTok or to continue to try to use TikTok as a service.”

According to TikTok officials, it is possible that on January 19, when US users try to open the app, they will see a message that the service is no longer available in the country. This is what happens when someone tries to launch TikTok in India, where the app was banned in 2020.

It’s also possible that users could access the app but it was buggy, ran slowly or crashed frequently, the TikTok official said.

Here’s what can happen and how to prepare.

Fine print: How the law would actually work

The Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act (PAFACA), which President Biden signed into law in April 2024, gives the government the authority to ban foreign apps that it deems pose a threat to national security.

The bill passed with significant bipartisan support as many lawmakers fear that the Chinese government, through TikTok’s parent company, could access and use Americans’ data to surveil Americans, spread misinformation and influence public opinion.

While the law affects TikTok, it actually targets the companies that make the platform accessible in the US, including app stores like Apple’s App Store and Google Play, as well as cloud service providers like Oracle.

The fine print makes it illegal for such companies to “distribute, maintain, or update (or facilitate the distribution, maintenance, or updating of) an application controlled by a foreign adversary,” whether through a marketplace or through Internet hosting. Services.

In mid-December, Democrats on a House committee dealing with U.S.-China competition sent letters to the CEOs of Apple and Google urging the companies to take action to ensure they “do this “fulfill the requirement within the deadline” – which would also have an immediate impact on the users.

“If you already have (TikTok) on your phone, it’s not going to disappear from your phone on January 19th or 20th,” Ruane says. “However, it will most likely disappear from app stores.”

This means users will no longer be able to download the app or updated versions of it.

And without the ability to update, the platform is unable to fix bugs, add features, or address security concerns. At some point, Ruane says, it could also become incompatible with the operating system of certain phones.

“Over time… the service you receive with the application will deteriorate,” she adds, although it’s too early to say whether that will be a matter of days, weeks or months.

Action Points: Preparations and possible workarounds for TikTok users

With the TikTok ban impending on January 19, experts like Ruane recommend users download their data and save any videos they want to access in the future.

“The other thing is to remember that even after this law goes into effect, it will not be illegal for them to continue using TikTok if they already have it on their phones — or even if they can purchase it from some.” from a source other than an app store,” she says. “This law does not apply to individuals accessing TikTok.”

One of the most discussed workarounds is a so-called virtual private network (VPN), which encrypts users’ location data and makes it appear as if they are accessing content from another country.

They are often used in countries with strict internet restrictions to access blocked social media platforms, streaming services and other geographically restricted content.

“Even if the application on your phone dies down, you may still be able to access it through a virtual private network in a web browser,” says Ruane.

There are also ways to download TikTok outside of the Google and Apple app stores through processes known as “sideloading” and “jailbreaking,” respectively.

But they’re not without potential complications or consequences: Apple won’t honor warranties on jailbroken iPhones, for example. Ruane believes the extra steps will turn off many TikTok users.

“It’s a barrier to accessing the application, and it’s also something you have to weigh, like, ‘Is it really worth it for me to access TikTok, do all of this, or learn how to do all of these.’ Necessary technical things done? “Things?”,” she says. “And I think for a fair number of users who only use the application occasionally, the answer will probably be no.”

Uncertainties: How the Trump Administration Might Fight a Ban

It’s no coincidence that the potential ban would take effect on January 19, the last full day of Biden’s term. That puts the ball in President-elect Donald Trump’s court, who has his own strong views on TikTok.

While Trump previously decried the app as a threat to national security and even tried to ban it during his first term, he has now become a staunch supporter of the platform and even asked the Supreme Court last month to suspend the start date of the law in question.

From Ruane’s perspective, Trump has three options for his next course of action once he is in office, and all of them are complicated.

For one thing, he could try to persuade Congress to repeal the original 2024 law requiring ByteDance to divest TikTok’s US operations – a law that both the House and Senate passed with overwhelming support.

“It’s pretty simple, but it’s also incredibly difficult politically because it would require changing the votes of many, many, many members of Congress,” Ruane says.

Trump’s second option is to order the Justice Department and attorney general not to enforce the law, essentially allowing Google, Apple and others to continue providing services to TikTok.

But Ruane says that’s also easier said than done, as lawyers for these companies would still see a “giant legal risk” in flouting the law – and would likely try to avoid it – which includes steep penalties.

“So if someone uses your service to access TikTok and you break the law, it will cost every person who does that $5,000,” Ruane says. “If you accepted the president’s offer and continued to provide services to TikTok even though you were technically breaking the law, that would be $5,000 times hundreds of millions of people.”

The third possible option was postulated by Alan Rozenshtein, an associate professor of law at the University of Minnesota Law School and director of research at Lawfare. As he told NPR Fresh air In December, Trump could “simply declare that the law no longer applies.”

Trump could choose to use his broad powers under the law to determine that ByteDance did engage in a “qualified divestiture” of TikTok if it took certain steps to that effect.

“There’s a scenario where ByteDance could move some paperwork, transfer some assets from one company to another, do some fancy legal work, and that would basically give Trump enough cover to declare that TikTok is no longer owned by.” ByteDance is controlled.” Rozenshtein said.

This is also not a valid approach, says Ruane, as it can be challenged in court by both competitors and the companies involved.

One option being discussed among TikTok stakeholders is reinstating a national security deal called Project Texas, which would involve hiring Austin-based Oracle to host all U.S. user data. Oracle would also monitor all data flows between TikTok’s US operations and Beijing. The plan would also allow the federal government to activate a “kill switch” that would shut down TikTok if the terms of the agreement were violated.

The deal initially found support in the Biden administration, but talks stalled. People interested in the talks about TikTok’s future believe it’s possible that Trump could bring the project back to Texas, with Trump potentially noting that the deal will result in TikTok having to comply with the divest-or-ban law harmony.

Ultimately, Ruane said, it’s unclear what, if anything, Trump will do to bring back TikTok — an app that she says is “not immediately replaceable,” even though new and existing platforms will certainly compete for many displaced users .

NPR’s Bobby Allyn contributed reporting.