HOUSTON – The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers won’t be able to win the AFC North on Christmas. But their games on Wednesday will be crucial in crowning the champions of this highly competitive division.

With two weeks left in the regular season, the AFC North is essentially a coin toss. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Ravens have a 53.2% chance of winning, while the Steelers have a 46.8% chance.

All eyes will be on Wednesday’s games as Pittsburgh hosts the Kansas City Chiefs (1 p.m. ET, Netflix) and Baltimore plays the Houston Texans (4:30 p.m. ET, Netflix).

“I know the scenarios to a certain extent — the ones that matter,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. “I think as a head coach you have to know before a game about draws. What do you want to play on if it comes to that? How does a draw benefit us compared to a loss or a win if it ever comes to that?”

There isn’t much between the Ravens and Steelers, who have the same overall record (10-5) and the same mark in the division (3-2).

Despite Saturday’s 34-17 loss in Baltimore, the Steelers are in control of their fate in the AFC North as they hold the lead over their mutual opponents in the third tiebreaker. Pittsburgh is 7-3 among combined opponents and Baltimore is 7-4. Pittsburgh also holds the lead in the conference record fourth tiebreaker. Pittsburgh is 7-3 in the AFC while Baltimore is 6-4.

So the Steelers would win the division if both Pittsburgh and Baltimore won their remaining two games. But Pittsburgh has a more difficult schedule, playing the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs (14-1) and the Cincinnati Bengals (6-8). Baltimore plays at the Texans (9-6) and returns home to face the Cleveland Browns (3-11).

“We’re just focused on our next opportunity,” Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said. “We get a next target; we focus our energy on that. The big picture takes care of itself.”

Based on Wednesday’s games, the Ravens have a slight chance of winning the division. According to ESPN BET, Baltimore is the 5.5-point favorite over Houston and Pittsburgh is the 2.5-point underdog against Kansas City.

Excluding a tie, the Steelers and Ravens have eight options in Weeks 17 and 18. Pittsburgh wins the AFC North in five of them and Baltimore repeats as division champions in the other three.

Here are the scenarios:

– If the Steelers win, the Steelers win the division with a better record among common opponents.

– If the Ravens win AND the Steelers lose at least one game, the Ravens win the division with a better overall record.

– If the Ravens beat the Texans and lose to the Browns AND the Steelers lose to the Chiefs and beat the Bengals, the Steelers win the division with a better division record.

– If the Ravens lose to the Texans and beat the Browns AND the Steelers beat the Chiefs and lose to the Bengals, the Ravens win the division with a better division record.

– If the Ravens lose to the Texans and beat the Browns AND the Steelers lose to the Chiefs and beat the Bengals, the Steelers win the division with a better conference record.

– If the Ravens beat the Texans and lose to the Browns AND the Steelers beat the Chiefs and lose to the Bengals, the Steelers win the division with a better record among common opponents.

– If the Ravens win one of their last two games AND the Steelers lose, the Ravens win the division with a better overall record.

– If the Ravens and Steelers lose, the Steelers win the division with a better conference record.

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson isn’t worried about those scenarios.

“We’re still trying to win,” Jackson said. “I really don’t care what another team does. I don’t care. I’m trying to win.”

The Steelers and Ravens both clinched a playoff spot, but there’s a big difference between entering the postseason as a division winner or with a wild card. The AFC North champion will host at least one home game in the playoffs and a wild card team will most likely have to win three road games to reach the Super Bowl.

There have only been five instances in which a team won three away playoff games to reach the Super Bowl. The only team to accomplish this in the last 13 years was the Super Bowl LV winner Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who accomplished the feat during the 2020 COVID-19 season when fan attendance was limited.

The Steelers could have clinched the AFC North title with a win on Saturday. After two consecutive defeats, Pittsburgh has been fighting for the first division title since 2020.

“The best thing we can do is keep our heads up,” Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson said. “I think the best thing we can do is just look forward to playing in front of our fans, coming home and fighting for what we came here for and I think that chance is still there in front of us.”