How the Eagles' narrow path to No. 1 is hurting Saquon Barkley's NFL record hunt

PHILADELPHIA – The NFL’s single-season rushing record is within reach for Saquon Barkley as the Eagles running back faces two of the NFL’s worst rushing defenses in the final two games of the season.

Barkley has 1,838 yards rushing. He needs 268 yards to surpass Eric Dickerson’s NFL record of 2,105 yards set in 1984. That means Barkley would need to average 134 yards per game this Sunday against the Cowboys at 1 p.m. and against the Giants on January 5th.

The Cowboys (7-8) rank 28th in the NFL in rush defense, allowing 136 yards per game. The Giants (2-13) are 31st allowing 143 yards per game.

But it’s all but certain that Barkley and most of the Eagles’ starters will either not play at all or play very sparingly in the Finals.

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That’s because the Eagles (12-3) have little chance of clinching the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs after their last-second 36-33 loss to the Washington Commanders on Sunday. The Lions and Vikings (13-2) are tied for first place in the NFC North and both have a tiebreaker over the Eagles (see below).

The top seed is the only team that receives a bye in the first round. While Eagles coach Nick Sirianni hasn’t explained how he’ll treat the finale, he’ll likely view it as a glorified bye week.

And that could be the case even if the Eagles have to win this game to clinch the NFC East.

“That was one of the things I told the team,” wide receiver AJ Brown said after the game. “No one better loses confidence in here. You don’t let hard times humble you. These aren’t even hard times. These are things you can’t control. Life happens. You won’t get everything you want. The good thing is that we have everything in front of us.

Barkley, meanwhile, has said several times that he would like to get the record, but only in the context of reaching the Super Bowl.

Barkley has already surpassed his career high in rushing attempts after completing a season-high 29 carries (for 150 yards) on Sunday. That gives Barkley 314 carries this season. His previous high was 295 in 2022, when he was with the Giants.

So rest before the playoffs should be a priority. That means Barkley would likely have to get all or the vast majority of the yards needed to overtake Dickerson this Sunday.

The dilemma would be if Barkley was within about 50 yards of Dickerson’s record by the finale. Would the Eagles let him play the first half against the Giants?

Here are the Eagles’ playoff scenarios:

Can the Eagles win the NFC East on Sunday?

Yes. The Eagles can win the division with their next victory or the Commanders’ next loss.

The Eagles currently hold a two-game lead over the Commanders (10-5) with two games left to play. But the Commanders would win the division tiebreaker if they win and the Eagles lose.

The Eagles finish the season with home games against the Cowboys and Giants. The Commanders face the Falcons (8-7) at home on Sunday night and land at the Cowboys.

What about the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs?

The Eagles will secure the No. 2 seed once they win the NFC East.

That’s because neither the Rams (9-6) nor the Falcons, the division leaders in the NFC West and South, respectively, can catch up with the Eagles.

As a No. 2 seed, the Eagles would face the No. 7 seed at the start of the playoffs. At this point, Washington would be the Eagles’ opponent. If the Eagles are still alive for the NFC Championship Game on Jan. 26, they would only have to travel if the No. 1 seed is still alive.

Can the Eagles still get the No. 1 pick?

Yes, but it’s next to impossible.

The Eagles do not play against the Lions or the Vikings, both of whom play in the NFC North. So the first two tiebreakers are not in play – direct comparison and best division record.

The third tiebreaker consists of common opponents (at least five), and it’s likely the Eagles will be tied with Detroit and Minnesota there too.

Both the Lions and Vikings face the Eagles in the fourth tiebreaker, which is a conference record. Detroit is 9-1 in the NFC, while the Vikings are 8-2 and the Eagles are 7-3.

This means the Eagles cannot finish with either team. They would have to win while the team that wins the NFC North loses.

The problem is that the Lions and Vikings play each other for the division title on January 5th. This means that it is impossible for both teams to win 0-2.

So the only way for the Eagles to win the top seed is for both Detroit and Minnesota to go 0-1-1 the rest of the game while the Eagles win. The Lions play at the 49ers (6-9) on Sunday night, while the Vikings face the Packers (11-4) at home.

What happens if the Eagles find themselves in a three-way tie at the end of the season?

A three-way tie at the end of the season doesn’t help the Eagles. Since the Lions and Vikings play in the same division, this tiebreaker will be determined first. Then the same principles would apply to a tiebreaker between the Eagles and the NFC North winner.

Why is the No. 1 seed so important in the NFL playoffs?

The top seed in each conference has a major advantage in the playoffs.

That’s because this team would be the only team to receive a first-round bye and home field advantage until the Super Bowl. The No. 2 seed would have to play the weekend of the first round and win a total of three games to get to the Super Bowl. The No. 1 seed would only need to win two games, and both would be at home.

When and where will the Super Bowl take place in 2025?

The winners of the NFC and AFC would face each other in the Super Bowl on February 9, 2025 at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

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