Patriots

The Patriots are the No. 3 overall seed entering Week 16.

The Patriots could be one step closer to securing a top-three pick in the NFL Draft for the second straight year with the No. 1 overall pick still in play.

New England holds the third overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, which begins in Week 16. However, ESPN’s FPI gives the second-best odds of getting the No. 1 overall pick and predicts New England will keep the No. 2 overall pick in the draft. According to ESPN’s FPI, there is a 23.6 percent chance of becoming No. 1.

The Patriots’ path to securing the pole position for the No. 1 overall pick after Week 16 is relatively simple. They have to lose, while the Giants (who are currently the No. 1 overall pick) and the Raiders (who are currently the No. 2 overall pick) both have to win.

New England is a 14-point underdog heading into Sunday’s game against Buffalo after a four-game losing streak that ended at 11-3. However, 2-12 New York and 2-12 Las Vegas each suffered longer defeats. The Giants hope to end their nine-game losing streak when they travel to Atlanta to face the 7-7 Falcons, with rookie Michael Penix Jr. making his first career start. Nevertheless, New York goes into Sunday’s game as a nine-point underdog.

The Raiders have a better chance of winning on Sunday. Even though the Raiders are on a 10-game losing streak, they host the Jaguars on Sunday, 3-11. Las Vegas is actually a two-point favorite in this game.

With the Raiders facing a much weaker opponent on Sunday, it makes sense why the Giants currently have the best chance of getting the first overall pick (37.4 percent), while the Raiders are projected to go fourth and the third-best odds of getting the top pick (13.8 percent), according to ESPN’s FPI.

If all three games go as the odds suggest, the Patriots would remain the No. 2 overall seed entering Week 17. That would also be the case if the Patriots lose, the Raiders lose and the Giants win. New England has a significant lead over both teams when it comes to the strength of the schedule tiebreaker.

While a win for the Raiders on Sunday would hurt the Patriots’ chances of getting the No. 1 overall pick, it could further solidify their chances of finishing in the top five. The Jaguars hold the fourth overall spot heading into Week 16 and are the team closest to the Patriots in strength of schedule tiebreaker (New England is 0.019 points worse).

If the Patriots lose, the Jaguars win, the Panthers upset the Cardinals, the Titans upset the Colts and the Browns upset the Bengals, New England would have a one-game lead over those four teams for the No. 3 seed with the tiebreaker in hand .

If the Patriots upset the draft law on Sunday, they wouldn’t fall too far behind in the draft regulations. The furthest they could fall back to is No. 7, as they have strength in the schedule tiebreaker over the two 4-10 teams (Jets and Bears).

The Patriots’ lead in the strength of the schedule tiebreaker could also widen in Week 16. Since the Jaguars are currently the only team with a top-10 pick threatening the Patriots with this tiebreaker, the Texans, Eagles, Panthers, Browns, Lions, Vikings and Packers would help New England in that regard.

With New England in an advantageous position heading into Week 16, it’s no surprise that it has a strong chance of finishing in the top 5 and top 10. ESPN’s FPI model gives the Patriots an 87.6 percent chance of holding a spot in the top five and a 99.7 percent chance of holding a top 10 pick.