HTS leader is not just a player in Syria’s rapidly changing future

HTS leader is not just a player in Syria’s rapidly changing future

EPA crowds wave flags in Damascus following the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.EPA

“They came here worried about the Islamists,” one source said, describing the mood of Arab foreign ministers who flew to Doha on Saturday evening for urgent talks aimed at preventing a collapse into chaos and bloodshed in Damascus.

Within hours, the powerful Islamist group fueled the rebels’ rise to power reported that they had reached the center of the Syrian capital.

The leader of Hayat Tahrir-al Shams, Abu Mohammad al-Jowlani, triumphantly announced “the capture of Damascus.” Now he is using his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, instead of his pseudonym as a sign of his sudden rise to a much larger national role.

He will certainly play a crucial role in defining Syria’s new order after this sudden, surprise end to half a century of repressive rule by the Assad family. But the leader of an organization banned by the United Nations and Western governments is not the only central player in Syria’s rapidly changing scene.

“History is not yet written,” warns Marie Forestier, senior Syria adviser at the European Peace Institute. They and other informed observers who happened to attend the annual Doha Forum point out that it was another rebel group, recently dubbed the Southern Operations Room, working with people from the city, that stormed into the capital. The ranks of this force are dominated by fighters from the former Free Syrian Army (FSA), which worked closely with Western powers at the start of the Syrian uprising in 2011.

“The game begins now,” is how Ms. Forestier describes the beginning of this momentous new chapter, marked by an explosion of cheers in the streets but also critical questions about what comes next.

As an Islamist Hayat Tahrir al Shams (HTS) advanced with astonishing speed and encountered little resistance, it sparked an onslaught of rebel forces elsewhere in Syria as well as a wave of local armed groups keen to play a role in their own areas.

“The fight against the Assad regime was the glue that held this de facto coalition together,” said Thomas Juneau, a Middle East expert at the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, who is also in Doha.

“After Assad flees, continued unity among the groups that toppled him will be a challenge,” he says.

The groups include an umbrella alliance of Turkish militias known as the Syrian National Army, which, like the HTS, dominated part of northwestern Syria. The predominantly Kurdish groups of the Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) have also gained ground in the northeast and are determined to maintain their successes.

But the ambitious, high-profile leader of HTS has captured the spotlight. His rhetoric and behavior are now being scrutinized by Syrians, but also in neighboring capitals and far beyond. The commander, whose militia first emerged as an al-Qaeda affiliate, broke off with the jihadist group in 2016 and has been trying to polish his image ever since. He has been sending conciliatory messages abroad for years; Now he is reassuring Syria’s many minority communities that they have nothing to worry about.

Reuters Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani looks directly into the camera in this screenshot from a video. He wears a green military shirt and has a dark beard.Reuters

HTS leader al-Jawlani has burnished his image since breaking with al-Qaeda in 2016

“His messages are greeted with caution,” emphasizes Ms. Forestier. “But we must not forget the last eight years of his authoritarian rule and his background.” The rule of the HTS, a both political and paramilitary organization, in the conservative province of Idlib was marked by the establishment of a functioning government called the “Salvation Government”. included restricted religious freedom, but was also characterized by repressive measures.

In Syria’s second largest city Aleppo the first urban area captured by HTS as part of its lightning pushits fighters have tried to prove that they are capable of governing.

The group has also sent reassuring messages to countries like Iraq that the war would not spread beyond their borders. Other neighbors, including Jordan, fear that Islamist successes next door could galvanize disgruntled militant groups within their borders. Turkey, which is sure to play a key role, has its own concerns. It views the SDF as a terrorist group linked to the Kurdish group PKK, which is banned in Turkey, and will not hesitate to intervene militarily and politically, as it has done for years, when its own interests are threatened.

EPA A smiling woman in a blue and white dress looks up at the sky. Behind her, two other women hide their smiles with their hands.EPA

In the hours after the fall of the regime, the mood on the streets of Damascus was exuberant

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at the Doha Forum on Saturday that it was “inadmissible” for a group he described as terrorists – a clear reference to HTS – to take control of Syria.

That evening, the UN special envoy for Syria, Geir Pederson, told me that there was a “new understanding of a new reality.”

Regional foreign ministers, including President Assad’s former staunch allies Iran and Russia, left wrong-footed by this spectacular turn of events, are still calling for efforts to create an inclusive political process. This is confirmed by Mr. Pedersen.

“This dark chapter has left deep scars, but today we look with cautious hope to the beginning of a new chapter – a chapter of peace, reconciliation, dignity and inclusion for all Syrians,” he said after his meetings here in Doha, where halls full of high-ranking diplomats, scholars and officials from around the world are abuzz with the latest news from Syria.

Many observers here appear unwilling to draw quick conclusions about what kind of rule will emerge in a country known for its diversity of Christian and Muslim sects.

“I don’t want to follow that line of thinking yet,” said a Western diplomat when asked about concerns about a harsh Islamist-dominated order. “We’re just getting started with HTS, who led a bloodless coup.”

Juneau agrees. “Right now it’s good to just acknowledge the truly historic collapse of one of the most brutal regimes in recent decades,” he said.

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