In an attempt to save himself, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol could follow a well-trodden path from the Blue House to prison

In an attempt to save himself, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol could follow a well-trodden path from the Blue House to prison

It was a shocking nightly sequence of events that shook and tested a relatively young democracy.

While South Korea is seen by many as a bustling modern society that now exports pop culture and technology to the world, it was ruled by a brutal military dictatorship until 1988.

In the decades since, the country has experienced several political upheavals, but never has a president attempted to seize complete power through military force.

President Yoon Suk Yeol seems to have tried to do just that, but failed.

He claimed the surprise late-night declaration of martial law was necessary to thwart “anti-state forces” and “eradicate pro-North Korean forces” so that he could “protect the constitutional democratic order.”

When the military took to the streets, ordinary Koreans poured out of their homes to meet them.

Meanwhile, the opposition convened the National Assembly and voted to overturn the decision.

When members of President Yoon’s own party turned against him, he seemed to realize the hopelessness of his position and relented.

His strength had instead revealed his weakness.

The lame president who tried to yell

Yoon took office in 2022 as a political newcomer, promising a new approach to governing the country.

About halfway through his only five-year term as president, he already seemed increasingly politically neutered before last night’s wild events.

Opposition parties won a landslide victory in April elections and used their majority in the National Assembly to suppress his agenda and effectively sideline him as a lame-duck leader.

A man in a suit waves the South Korean national flag.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and his wife Kim Keon Hee deny allegations of corruption and influence peddling. (Reuters: Ahn Young-joon )

Since last month, Yoon has been caught up in a growing influence-peddling scandal involving his wife – an allegation both have denied.

But the corruption allegations damaged his public image. In recent months, his approval rating has fluctuated between 17 and 20 percent.

The opposition was also preparing an impeachment trial that, if approved, would force him from office.

But this declaration of martial law, which looks like a desperate attempt for President Yoon to seize power, could now cement his downfall.

A group of people hold up South Korean flags

When martial law was declared, Koreans took to the streets in protest. (Reuters: Kim Soo-hyeon)

A two-thirds majority in the National Assembly is required for impeachment.

The opposition party does not have enough votes in its coalition, but it is now possible that enough members of the ruling party will be so appalled by this statement that they will support Yoon’s removal from office.

If he is removed from office, that probably won’t be the end of his problems

South Korean presidents don’t typically enjoy a relaxing retirement.

They often end up in prison.

When I was an East Asia correspondent in Seoul in 2021, two former presidents were in prison after being found guilty of corruption.

Two other former leaders had been in prison since the 1980s, and another had committed suicide during the investigation.

President Yoon himself gained national prominence by leading the prosecution of former President Park Geun-hye.

A Korean woman looks dejected.

Former South Korean President Park Geun-hye served three months in prison before being pardoned.

She was convicted of a huge corruption scandal and sentenced to 20 years in prison.

She was subsequently pardoned by Yoon’s predecessor, Moon Jae-In. Yoon himself then pardoned former President Lee Myun-bak in 2022.

The opposition – led by Lee Jae-myung, the man Yoon defeated in the 2022 election – has already said last night’s chaos was an “opportunity” to be seized.

It is likely that the opportunity will be to oust Yoon from Korea’s Blue House, their version of the White House, through an assembly vote.

Without presidential immunity, Yoon would be liable to prosecution.

History suggests that investigations into alleged corruption would soon follow.

In this case, Yoon could soon have to rely on similar acts of mercy from future presidents if he also follows the now well-trodden path from the Blue House to prison.

A group of men in suits, all with white flowers

Opposition politicians have suggested they may try to impeach President Yoon. (AP: Ahn Young-joon)

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