Indianapolis postseason scenarios

The Indianapolis Colts have had an up-and-down second season under coach Shane Steichen, but they enter Week 17 with a legitimate chance to make the playoffs.

Such a run seemed unlikely when the Colts lost straight to the Denver Broncos in a crucial game in Week 15, losing Indianapolis 6-8. However, due to an easier schedule at the end of the season, the Colts are among the top challengers for the AFC’s No. 7 seed.

The Colts have little room for error in their pursuit of the playoffs. They also need help to get back to the postseason for the first time since 2020.

How close is Indianapolis’ path to the postseason? Here’s a look at the Colts’ playoff chances for their Week 17 contest.

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Colts playoff chances

According to The Athletic’s playoff prediction model, the Colts have an 18% chance of making the playoffs before Sunday of Week 17. That represents the highest chance among the three teams that will battle the Broncos for the AFC’s seventh spot (the Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals have a 16% and 7% chance, respectively).

Colts playoff odds

Oddsmakers are a little more pessimistic about the Colts’ postseason chances. DraftKings Sportsbook lists Indianapolis at +650 odds to advance to the postseason heading into Week 17 Sunday action. This gives the Colts an implied probability of 13.33% of qualifying for the playoffs.

What needs to happen for the Colts to make the playoffs?

The Colts need two things to make the playoffs. They are as follows:

The Colts must win their final two games;
The Broncos are coming off a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18.

This represents the only way for the Colts to continue to compete after the season, as the Houston Texans have already clinched the AFC South thanks to their nine wins and two straight victories over the Colts.

Colts remaining schedule

The good news for Colts fans? Indianapolis has the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, according to Tankathon. They play the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars, who have a combined record of 5-25, in the final two weeks of the season.

The Colts will be the favorite in both games. That gives them a chance to assert themselves and put pressure on the Broncos to win in a tough Week 18 matchup.

Below is a complete overview of Indianapolis’ schedule:

Broncos remaining schedule

The other good news for Indianapolis fans is that the Broncos are having a difficult finish to the 2024 NFL season. They face the 15-1 Chiefs in the final week of the season. Sean Payton’s team will have to do their best to beat Kansas City after failing to secure a playoff spot in a 30-24 loss to the Bengals in Week 17.

However, the Chiefs have already secured the No. 1 seed in the AFC and could rest their regular players in this game. If Patrick Mahomes and Co. do not participate or only partially participate in this competition, it could give Denver an easier path to securing the number 7 seed in the AFC.

Will Andy Reid prioritize rest or view Week 18 as a chance to knock a division rival out of the playoffs? The answer to that question could determine whether the Colts have a legitimate chance to reach the postseason.

Below is a complete overview of Denver’s schedule:

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Colts potential playoff opponents

If the Colts make the NFL playoffs, they can only be a No. 7 seed. That leaves them with two potential first-round opponents. They are as follows:

The Bills have control of the No. 2 seed in the postseason and can wrap it up with a Week 17 win over the New York Jets.

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AFC playoff picture week 17

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winner, No. 1 seed)*
Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East winner)*
Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*
Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South winner)*
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, Wild Card No. 1)*
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, Wild Card No. 2)*
Denver Broncos (9-7, Wild Card No. 3)

On the hunt: Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), Indianapolis Colts (7-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8).

NFC

Detroit Lions (13-2, NFC North leaders)*
Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, NFC East leaders)*
Los Angeles Rams (10-6, NFC West leaders)
Atlanta Falcons (8-7, NFC South leaders)
Minnesota Vikings (13-2, Wild Card No. 1)*
Green Bay Packers (11-4, Wild Card No. 2)
Washington Commanders (10-5, Wildcard No. 3)

On the hunt: Seattle Seahawks (8-7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)

An asterisk

denotes teams that have secured a spot in the playoffs. Teams that have won division titles will be marked accordingly.

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Indianapolis postseason scenarios

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