Is franchise tag the best way to go with QB?

Sam Darnold chose the right time to have a career year. But in the coming weeks, this is likely to create unique dilemmas for both the 27-year-old quarterback and the Minnesota Vikings.

For the first time this season, Darnold is a first-time Pro Bowler. On Monday night, Darnold will have his final opportunity to prove that he has finally blossomed into a franchise QB when he was selected by the New York Jets with the third overall pick of the 2018 draft. The Vikings will play in the final wild card game of the playoffs 2024 against the Los Angeles Rams. It will be the first postseason start for Darnold, who set an NFL record among quarterbacks by earning 14 wins in his first season with a team, Minnesota’s fourth in his seven-year career.

“It’s exciting, man, to be able to walk into an environment like we’re going to walk into on Monday night,” Darnold said Thursday.

“All the guys in the locker room are very excited, but we know and understand that we have to work hard this week to go out there and earn the excitement that we will feel on Monday night.”

(However, feelings will be somewhat mixed for Darnold, a Southern California native and USC product who also felt the effects of the wildfires in the Los Angeles area.)

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But regardless of Monday’s outcome, the Vikings and/or Darnold will have to make a decision about their relationship sooner or later as his one-year, $10 million contract expires. He joined the team last March after spending the 2023 season as a backup for the San Francisco 49ers, and was joined a few weeks later by JJ McCarthy, whom Minnesota selected No. 10 overall in last year’s draft. Darnold earned rave reviews in the offseason before inheriting the starting job automatically when McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury in preseason.

But good luck finding almost anyone who predicted what followed: Minnesota (14-3) tied for the league’s third-best record, thanks largely to Darnold’s breakthrough. His 4,319 yards and 35 TDs through the air and a passer rating of 102.5 were all career highs with exponential variance. Head coach Kevin O’Connell regularly praised him as a leader, competitor and reliable decision-maker.

Soon, Darnold and the team will have to weigh their relative options after a season that could be a one-year wonder, could be an indication that he’s done it all, or perhaps something in between – the right player finds the right situation to do it maximize his talents. There is no doubt about the way Darnold, always popular with his teammates despite disappointing results early in his career, has been embraced by that locker room and staff.

“Just to see how he was ultimately able to make the most of his opportunities, our football team loves him for that,” O’Connell said after last month’s loss to the Green Bay Packers, in which Darnold rushed for a career-best 377 yards and was harassed by teammates and then doused with water in a noisy locker room.

“I really enjoyed coaching him.”

So what’s next? Darnold and the Vikings are basically exploring three options – and there are some additional variations – before coming to a solution, although one seems to be the obvious choice:

Sam Darnold is heading into free agency

Maybe the Vikings would let him go, and maybe that would be his preference. McCarthy was selected with the goal of being a long-term replacement for Kirk Cousins, who moved to the Atlanta Falcons last year. The Michigan product showed, if only briefly, the athleticism and composure during his preseason action that suggests he may eventually be able to translate his championship-caliber resume to the NFL with the Wolverines.

With the number of quarterbacks in the 2025 draft seemingly far more limited than the previous one – McCarthy might have been the first pick had he waited to turn pro this year – Darnold could be highly sought after given the supply and demand dynamic the most prominent position in team sports. And while it’s highly unlikely that he would reach the $60 million per year cap set by the Dallas Cowboys’ Dak Prescott last September, it’s entirely likely that Darnold would match his 2018 draft colleague’s mid-range QB pact and former Carolina Panthers teammate, Baker Mayfield, took three years and $100 million when he re-signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2024 US dollars.

If the Vikings don’t want to be in a more expensive area, they can hand the keys to McCarthy, secure a third-round compensatory pick in 2026 – perhaps keeping the Daniel Jones reclamation project as a McCarthy insurance plan – and let Darnold move on something that may or may not be more environmentally friendly, but will almost certainly go to a greener bank account.

Sam Darnold re-signs with the Vikings

The depth of Minnesota’s playoff run will undoubtedly have a big impact on Darnold’s future with the franchise – especially after his disappointing performance in the Week 18 loss at Detroit cost the Vikes the NFC North title and the No. 1 seed in the playoffs.

“He’s proven himself time and time again,” Marc Ross, former New York Giants vice president of player personnel and longtime NFL scout, told USA TODAY Sports. “If they have a good run and he gets out, they have to lock this guy up.”

And considering how successful the marriage between Mayfield and the Bucs has been, why not? While it’s tempting to build a roster around a quarterback on a rookie contract, it’s also tempting to have a young passer who can stay in town for an extended period of time – without necessarily breaking the salary cap – assuming the personnel and the front office feel comfortable opposite McCarthy, he is a reliable companion who has never played a snap in the regular season and has hardly had to face a talented Michigan squad for two seasons.

“I think the level of confidence that this group has in their quarterback and the level of confidence that the quarterback has in the 10 guys in the huddle is significant,” O’Connell said last month.

Sam Darnold and the franchise tag

It makes a lot of sense on many levels and seems to be the only logical decision, at least in the short term – even if it is just the catalyst in a multi-stage sequence.

Darnold’s franchising, presumably labeled “Non-Exclusive,” opens up a world of possibilities:

▶ He’s not far below the market value of a Pro Bowl-caliber QB1.

▶ Darnold would be guaranteed at least the biggest payday of his career — around $40+ million for the 2025 season, and that’s probably just a starting point.

▶ If the Vikings have no intention of keeping him and are acting entirely out of their own interest, then the tag could start a bidding war and make an off-offer offer — which would result in two first-round picks if Darnold signs and Minnesota doesn’t go along.

▶ Minnesota could also use Darnold and help him at the same time, with GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah also allowing him to easily sell his services to interested suitors – particularly ones Darnold might prefer – and still get a sizable return on the investment, regardless , whether they are players or draft picks or a combination thereof.

▶ As with most marked actors, the mechanism could simply be the opening step of a longer process, which nevertheless ends with both parties agreeing to a multi-year extension.

▶ And it could just mean another season for Darnold in the Twin Cities while McCarthy’s progress is further assessed.

▶ Another compelling avenue the day can theoretically open up is a trade market for McCarthy – again, the 2025 draft isn’t expected to be plentiful in terms of quarterbacks – while parallel talks with Darnold can take place.

“Worst case, you’re going to keep (Darnold) somehow. Give him a franchise, it’s right for him. Assess the market and see if they can get something for them,” Ross says.

“With the lack of quarterbacks in the draft, teams are going to be as desperate as possible. I mean, Sam Darnold will be The Man, people are going to fall over themselves to get him. This only benefits the Vikings.”

And may just fuel one of the most intriguing offseason quarterback problems in years.

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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.

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Is franchise tag the best way to go with QB?

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