Is January likely to bring more snow as we start the new year?

January is here and what will this year bring? To recap, last year the temperature was 3 degrees above average, with the majority of our total winter snowfall of 9 inches falling this month. The coldest temperature of last winter was also recorded in January at 14 degrees.

Making a prediction for a whole month is obviously risky and comes with caveats. There is no way to get the daily forecast for 31 days, but there are some signs about what general weather we might have for the coming month.

January is the coldest month of the year. This means that even in January it will be cold with above average temperatures. Think about the month of July – a cooler-than-average July isn’t cool, but it’s just not particularly hot. I do think that this January will be significantly colder than last year. So plan sweaters, hats and gloves right from the start.

After the first few days of the new month, you might think that this forecast is completely wrong because we will start the month on a very mild note, with some areas possibly near or above 50 degrees, but many of us will be in such areas would be in the 1940s. The ground will be bare at the beginning of the month as the snow has melted.

Temperatures are forecast to get colder, with an 85 percent chance of average or colder than average temperatures in the first week of the new month.Boston Globe

There will be colder air from the first weekend. Depending on the direction of a storm that arrives around January 5th or 6th, it may briefly become warmer, but more cold air will enter the area during the second full week of the month. Along with this colder air, there will be some opportunities for storms as the pattern appears to be active through the first half of the month.

Long-term modeling shows an active weather pattern will continue in New England through the first two weeks of January.Decisive

When it comes to January, it is important to remember that although it is a cold month, it is not as cold as it was at the beginning of the 20th century and it is continuing to get warmer due to climate change.

January, like all months over the last 100+ years, has become increasingly warmer.NOAA

It will snow in January. We have never had a first month of the year without measurable snow. There were January months with very little of it, even less than an inch. But memories are short: Just three years ago, there was over 3 feet of snow in Boston in January. Snowfall can vary greatly in January – check out the snow totals in the Greater Boston area over the past 10 years.

2024: 9 inches
2023: 6.9 inches
2022: 36.2 inches
2021: 5.8 inches
2020: 3.1 inches
2019: 2.1 inches
2018: 17.8 inches
2017: 8.9 inches
2016: 9.5 inches
2015: 34.3 inches
2014: 21.8 inches

The key to a snowy month is obviously having cold air and moisture come together at the same time. This all depends on the jet stream and just a hundred mile difference in configuration can mean the difference between shoveling or listening to the rain in the gutters. I am confident that there will be several opportunities to observe the track of storms in the first month of the year.

Finally, if you want to know what weather parameters to keep an eye on this winter, watch out for a negative North Atlantic Oscillation, which could lead to more storms on the East Coast. A positive Arctic Oscillation allows Arctic air to move southward to the northeast. Finally, a positive pattern in Pacific North America may result in colder than average temperatures. These phases could bring a favorable jet stream for stormy weather and ultimately determine what the first month of 2025 will bring.

Three key parameters for our winter weather are the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Pacific-North American Oscillation. Depending on their configuration, our weather can be mild or wild.NOAA

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Is January likely to bring more snow as we start the new year?

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