Is the newest member of the Nasdaq 100 — up 764% since its IPO — a buy for 2025?

Is the newest member of the Nasdaq 100 — up 764% since its IPO — a buy for 2025?

Outside of megacap tech companies, I would argue that it is a data analytics specialist Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR) is the hottest name in artificial intelligence (AI). Palantir marked many milestones this year – most recently the company’s entry into the Nasdaq-100 Index.

While Palantir’s early days as a publicly traded company were pretty rocky, the company has performed really well over the last two years. Of course, Palantir can attribute its current growth trajectory to the unprecedented demand for AI. But with shares up 764% since its initial public offering (IPO), is now a good time to invest in Palantir?

Below, I’ll break down Palantir’s foray into the AI ​​landscape and take a close look at the company’s tailwinds. Additionally, I provide a detailed valuation analysis to help you decide whether buying Palantir stock is right for you.

In April 2023, Palantir launched its fourth software suite called Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP). AIP was a huge success for Palantir, helping the company quickly enter the private sector and attract established enterprise software providers. Palantir’s revenue diversification (away from its almost entirely public sector base until two years ago) resulted in better margins, consistent profitability and excess cash flow.

Additionally, Palantir has collaborated with several names from the Big Tech industry throughout 2024, including Microsoft, oracle, MetaplatformsAnd Amazon. The primary focus of many of these partnerships is to connect their respective cloud computing infrastructures to AIP, particularly in classified environments with the U.S. military and adjacent defense operations. In other words, while Palantir continues to make progress in its commercial segment, the company has quietly been finding new ways to re-accelerate growth in its legacy government business.

Palantir’s success in the AI ​​landscape has led to heavy buying activity on the stock from a combination of retail investors and prominent institutional funds. While this all seems like a recipe that makes Palantir a no-brainer investment, the company’s trajectory in terms of valuation may have diverged from reality.

A person looks at a stock chart with his hand on his head.
Image source: Getty Images.

Valuing Palantir is quite a challenge. In the chart below, I compared the company to a cohort of other enterprise software companies using price-to-sales (P/S) ratio. With a P/E ratio of 73, Palantir is about three times more expensive than the next best comparable stock in this cohort.

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