Is there already a controversy surrounding the College Football Playoff? Possible farewell is nerve-wracking two weeks before the end – “The data doesn’t lie”

Is there already a controversy surrounding the College Football Playoff? Possible farewell is nerve-wracking two weeks before the end – “The data doesn’t lie”

The College Football Playoff Selection Committee begins its final two weeks of deliberations with a series of momentous decisions thrust upon its 13 members.

(1) Who are the final overall picks in the field?

(2) Which teams will receive a first round home game?

(3) Which four conference champions will receive a bye in the first round?

The first two cause a lot of fear. But it is the third focus that offers perhaps the most interesting debate. The top five ranked conference champions receive a nod to the 12-team field, and the top four champions are seeded numbers 1-4 and receive a bye to the quarterfinals.

Many assumed that the champions of the four power leagues would get byes in the first round every year.

The latest rankings from the CFP Selection Committee paint a different picture. In the rankings released last week, Boise State (10-1) ranked ahead of all Big 12 teams, paving the way for the Broncos to earn the No. 4 seed and a first-round bye in a Group of Five-over-Power Four jump .

Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark said such a decision was wrong.

“Given where we are today, I see no reason for the Big 12 champion not to receive a first-round bye,” Yormark told Yahoo Sports. “The winner of our championship should receive a bye. I have great confidence in the selection committee and am sure that they will see it that way too. Just look at the data. The data doesn’t lie. From a strength of schedule standpoint, all four of our schools are at the top of the rankings ahead of Boise State.”

The 12-team College Football Playoff has sparked plenty of controversy in its first year. (Grant Thomas/Yahoo Sports)The 12-team College Football Playoff has sparked plenty of controversy in its first year. (Grant Thomas/Yahoo Sports)

The 12-team College Football Playoff has sparked plenty of controversy in its first year. (Grant Thomas/Yahoo Sports)

The focus of the debate is the comparison not only of the individual teams, but also of the two leagues. The argument is intriguing in an era of college football in which the power leagues continue to differentiate themselves from the five others: Mountain West, Sun Belt, Conference USA, American and Mid-American.

Yormark is loaded with Big 12 data points. His league has 42 wins against teams with a winning record. The Mountain West has 11 (five from Boise and UNLV). Nine Big 12 teams are bowl eligible. The Mountain West has five.

Boise’s strong schedule puts it at No. 81, 12 spots behind the worst of the Big 12’s top four teams (Iowa State at 69). In fact, the two leagues met on the field eight times this season. The Big 12 has a 6-2 record with an average margin of victory of more than three touchdowns. UNLV holds both Mountain West wins (at Houston and Kansas).

“Arizona State defeated Wyoming by 41 points. BYU beat them by 20 points. Boise struggled to get a four-point win against Wyoming,” Yormark said. “There’s no reason we can’t get a bye.”

In an interview with Yahoo Sports on Monday, Boise State coach Spencer Danielson isn’t looking too far into the future — a message he made clear to his team.

“We still have two more games to go to even continue this conversation,” he said. “That’s my opinion.” We’ve been playing playoff football since the Oregon game. I believe in our schedule. We played well. We played well against Oregon. Are we suitable for a farewell? That’s a matter for the committee.”

Seven of Boise State’s 10 wins were by at least two points, including a 21-point win over a Washington State team that beat Texas Tech by three touchdowns in Week 2 of the season.

But Boise State’s strongest arguments may be its only loss and its best player. The Broncos led most of their game against No. 1 Oregon on September 7, eventually losing on a last-second field goal. Boise State has the best runner in the country, Heisman Trophy candidate Ashton Jeanty, who has run for nearly 600 more yards than the next best runner.

“There were several teams in the rankings that are no longer in the rankings because they were involved in this matter,” Danielson said. “It is difficult for me to lobby as there are still two games left. You control what you can control.” “

Mountain West commissioner Gloria Nevarez declined comment, only pointing to similar data points for the Broncos, particularly the three-point loss in Eugene.

The CFP selection committee will meet again early this week before its rankings are released Tuesday night on ESPN. Over the weekend, the Big 12’s two top-ranked teams, No. 14 BYU and No. 16 Colorado, lost. Boise State, ranked 12th last week, survived that scare from Wyoming.

In the updated AP Poll released Sunday, Arizona State was the top-ranked Big 12 team at No. 14. Boise was No. 11.

“What’s happening right now is not fair to the Big 12,” Kansas State coach Chris Klieman told reporters Monday. “Other teams can lose in other leagues and it’s like, ‘This league is really good!’ We lose in this league and people say: “This league stinks!” I don’t understand that. As a conference we need to come together and clarify some things. In order for a bunch of teams to be 9-2 and for us to not have any (advantage) in the College Football Playoff, we have to cancel one of those (conference) games and then go with eight games.”

The selection committee’s decision on the first round bye is not insignificant. The fourth-ranked conference champion, the No. 4 seed, will receive an additional week of rest. The team would face one of the winners of the No. 5-12 seeds in a quarterfinal matchup at the bowl site.

The fifth highest ranked conference champion is likely to be ranked 12th, at least according to the rankings projections. That means he has to play a first round game away at No. 5. For now, the No. 5 seed is projected to be the loser in the Big Ten championship games, likely to Oregon or Ohio State, the top two ranked teams in the country.

However, the remaining schedules must be reviewed before the committee makes a decision.

Boise State hosts Oregon State (5-6) and then faces Colorado State or UNLV in the Mountain West championship game, which will be played in Boise.

The Big 12, on the other hand, is significantly less safe. The 16-team conference is considered the one with the highest parity of all power leagues and definitely delivers.

Nine teams remain qualified for the conference championship game, four of which have the best ranking. BYU (9-2), Iowa State (9-2), Arizona State (9-2) and Colorado (8-3) are 6-2 at the top of the conference standings. All four are favorites to win their regular season finale, a result that would put Arizona State and Iowa State in the title game.

“I said in July that we had great depth and parity and I thought it would work out, and it did,” Yormark said. “I said the month of November would be magical, and it is. It’s made for television.”

The debate over the CFP’s final first-round bye is a continuation of a long-running dispute between the power leagues and those from the more resource-poor tier of the Football Bowl Subdivision. The gap between the two is widening, both due to the decisions of those in power and the courts.

The decisions have accelerated the concept of schools compensating athletes directly — a much more difficult proposition for Group of Five programs. Their budgets are typically a fraction of the budgets of schools in power conferences, which have more lucrative television contracts and generate more internal revenue through donations and ticket sales.

In fact, according to data from ESPN, the Group of Five is having the most difficulty winning games against the top leagues this season. The Group of Five programs — including independents UMass and UConn as well as Oregon State and Washington State — are 8-87 against power teams. The winning percentage of 0.084 is considered the worst in modern history.

The decision to add a fifth conference champion to the field – thereby securing a spot in the Group of Five – is a topic that has drawn heated debate and scrutiny from power league executives over the years. Craig Thompson, the former Mountain West commissioner, was part of a four-person working group that originally developed the current 12-team format. He was the only representative from the ranks of the G5.

“What happens with Boise State potentially getting a bye is not surprising,” Thompson said in a recent interview with Yahoo Sports. “The Group of Five champion will be rewarded in the system if he has a big year.”

The five automatic bids and first-round byes were not intended for specific conferences to avoid scrutiny from members of Congress who in the past had skewered the old BCS concept of creating a caste system.

Last spring, CFP leaders — the 10 conference commissioners and Notre Dame’s athletic director — reevaluated the format when they agreed to a new six-year extension that begins with the 2026 playoffs. They did not agree on a format, but only agreed on protections that (1) guarantee the top five ranked champions an automatic berth, (2) limit the field to 12 or 14 teams, and (3) Notre Dame will receive an at-large bid if it is in the top 12 or 14 depending on the field size.

During the discussions, debate raged over whether the Group of Five access spot should be retained. Speaking to Yahoo Sports at their soccer media conference in July, Nevarez said leaders of the power conference had “threatened” to withdraw the G5’s bid in the spring. But “to their credit, it never came off the table.”

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