Trade Details: Philadelphia Phillies acquire LHP Jesús Luzardo and catcher Paul McIntosh from the Miami Marlins in exchange for infielder Starlyn Caba and outfielder Emaarion Boyd

The Phillies are getting a slight upgrade to the bottom of their rotation with the trade of two prospects to Miami for Jesús Luzardo, who was among the best left-handed starters in baseball in 2023 before injuries ruined his 2024 season. The cost is reasonable, including one of the Phillies’ top prospects in shortstop Starlyn Caba, but both prospects are so far from the big leagues that it’s the kind of deal a contending team should make any day and twice on Sunday , which (checks calendar) It happens to be today.

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Phillies acquire left-hander Jesús Luzardo in trade with the Marlins

Luzardo may be the captain of the Good When Healthy team, but like most of his teammates on this squad, he isn’t healthy often enough. His 2023 season marked the first time he qualified for the ERA title – in fact, it was his first season with at least 101 innings pitched in the majors and only the third time in his eight-year professional career that he had thrown that many innings. He also peaked at 4.0 bWAR/3.8 fWAR this 2023 season, so there is clear potential here that would put him right into any contender’s rotation at 100 percent.

His 2024 got off to a bad start as he missed a few starts due to tightness in his throwing arm and then suffered a stress reaction in his lower back, a weakening of the vertebra that wouldn’t result in a fracture but is trending in that direction. Just a week ago, he told MLB.com that his body felt “like nothing ever happened” and that he should be ready for spring training.

Luzardo’s performance was down last year, but in 2023 he dominated with his four-seater reaching 95-98 mph and topping out at 99.2. Statcast ranked it the ninth most valuable four-seater in the sport by run value this year with 15 runs saved. His slider has never performed all that well since he doesn’t spin the ball well and it’s very flat, but he has more than enough experience generating swings and misses (52.7 percent in 2023, never below 41 percent in every season). I can say that it is effective despite below average spin and movement. This 2023 season, left-handed hitters sniffed his slider 60 percent of the time they swung at it. He probably could have told them it was coming via semaphore and still have succeeded.

Luzardo has always had a plus changeup, so he’s good enough against right-handed batters to turn a lineup over two or three times, and I think he could probably improve there a little by simply improving the usage of his pitches to righties changed – he leans too much on the slider and not enough on the change. The Phillies may not want to tinker with his pitch mix too much, but he seems like a good candidate for cutter considering his arm slot and difficulty getting high spin on any breaking pitch.

Regardless of whether they try to add pitching, he is a No. 2 starter when healthy, and in the Phillies’ rotation he would be their No. 3 or No. 4 starter, allowing them to address the potential departure of Rangers plan to release Suárez in free agency after the 2025 season. This also likely means the end of Taijuan Walker’s time in Philadelphia, as the right-hander was atrocious in 2024, losing over 1 mph with his fastball and often threw as if he was still frustrated by Rob Thomson’s decision not to use him at all in the 2023 playoffs. Walker has two years and $36 million left on his contract, which the Phillies will likely have to pay if they find a buyer at all. (There are a few teams that should be willing to give him a chance to see if he even regains his lost speed, like the White Sox or… well, the White Sox.)

The Phillies also get a minor league catcher, Paul McIntosh, who is now 27 and spent last year in Double A, batting .246/.340/.385. He is an expert in organizational depth.

Shortstop Starlyn Caba is a plus defender. (George Kubas/Diamond Images via Getty Images)

The Marlins’ return is still a ways off, but they’ve committed to the cap here, and that’s the way to go in this market.

Switch-hitting shortstop Starlyn Caba could become a star if he continues to get stronger. He’s already at least a Grade 70 defenseman with a plus arm and excellent instincts at the position. He played all of 2024 at age 18, turned 19 this month, and hit .254/.427/.335 with a hilarious 2:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the Florida Complex League, then managed He continued to make contact at the highest level in Low A, but only hit .179/.304/.190.

He’s just not strong enough to make even reasonably good contact yet; In 26 games in the Low-A Florida State League, his maximum exit velocity was just 101 mph. He’ll never be a power hitter, but he has the upside of a true leadoff hitter who can get on base at a high clip, make plus runs and throw the ball over the fence into the gaps with occasional power. It would shock me if he ends up getting past the 45 power level, but I think he will reach the hand strength to be a strong hitter on average and thus post high OBPs. With his defense, he’s an All-Star.

Emaarion Boyd is more of a developmental project, as he hit .239/.317/.331 as a 20-year-old in High A last year. The speedy outfielder was a raw hitter when the Phillies drafted him in the 11th round out of a Mississippi high school in 2022, and that’s still the case, even though he’s shown he can make a lot of contact, with strikeout rates below each 20 percent of the last two years.

He’s better right now when he gets something past the plate, and he needs to learn to hit the ball in the inside third, where he’s currently putting the ball on the ground en masse – over 60 percent of his balls in play are on inside pitches Thirds were ground balls, compared to 41 percent on pitches in the outer third. He is a 70 runner and can play all over the outfield. There’s a lot of development work to be done here, from reducing his pursuit rate (34 percent) to getting him to turn pitches inside, but there’s a plus every day if it works out.

This may not be the return Marlins fans were hoping for after Luzardo’s outstanding 2023 season, but it’s a really good return considering Luzardo’s health and poor performance in 2024. Its value might have increased if it had emerged strong at the start of 2025. But with only two years left of free agency and a huge question mark over his current skills and availability, trading him now for two quality prospects is a smart baseball move.

The Marlins won’t win anything in 2025, and they actually have some depth in their rotation, at least with players who need innings for development or returning from injury. Sandy Alcántara should be back from Tommy John surgery at the start of this season, and Eury Pérez could be back from the same surgery later in the year. Both Edward Cabrera and Max Meyer missed time last year due to shoulder problems, with Meyer’s season ending due to bursitis. Ryan Weathers may be their only starter who has a spot secured at the moment, but he’s also coming off a season cut short by injury, in his case a finger injury sustained while on the field. Luzardo might have been their best starter had he returned healthy, but they can use these innings to try to develop some of these other guys and/or recover them from injuries.

For the Phillies, that’s a given – they traded two prospects who wouldn’t help the major league team over the next three years, and the better of the two, Caba, plays a position where they have unusual depth. with two legitimate starting shortstops on the big league roster, their best prospect (Aidan Miller) a legit shortstop, and several other shortstop candidates behind him in the system, including another elite defender in Bryan Rincon.

Luzardo certainly carries some risk, but they didn’t have to give up Miller or Justin Crawford to get him. That’s a modest cost for the potential of a big payout in 2025 or 2026 before Luzardo hits free agency. Since Suárez is a free agent after 2025, they are covered in case he leaves, or they could decide to extend Suárez this year and just let Luzardo play until he is free. It’s a good situation for a team that’s targeting a $300 million payroll but wants to keep the competitive window open for a few more years.

(Top photo of Luzardo: Megan Briggs / Getty Images)