Jimmy Butler’s six-year tenure with the Miami Heat appears to be nearing its end. Butler, who led Miami to the NBA Finals in 2020 and 2023, was suspended by the team on Friday for “conduct detrimental to the team,” a day after he told the Heat he would like to be replaced.

Butler, who came into training camp this season saying “no games,” had totaled just 18 points in the last two games after missing the previous five due to illness. ESPN’s Shams Charania reported back on Dec. 10 that the Heat were listening to offers for Butler and reported on Dec. 25 that Butler favored a trade from Miami.

It escalated to the point that after Thursday’s loss to the Indiana Pacers, Butler said he wanted to find his joy on the court again. When asked if he could do that in Miami, he replied “probably not.”

ESPN insiders Tim Bontemps, Bobby Marks, Kevin Pelton and Brian Windhorst take a look at how the situation between the six-time All-Star and the franchise he has played for since 2019 got to this point and why a trade might not be possible is as simple as it seems and what Butler could offer a competitor.

How did Pat Riley go from vowing not to trade Butler to a seven-game suspension while the Heat are now listening to trade offers?

Butler’s tactic of forcing the Heat to take action and change their stance seemed to work in the short term. The Heat did not articulate all aspects of his “harmful behavior” that they believed led to the suspension, but Butler clearly wanted to be replaced and took action to lead the Heat to the same conclusion. His lackluster performance in the last two games after missing five games due to illness is likely on the list.

In the short term, this Butler gig will cost him $2.3 million in salary, but he could eventually recoup some or all of it through a planned player union grievance. — Brian Windhorst

This isn’t the first time Butler’s tenure with a team has ended badly. What happened in Chicago, Minnesota and Philadelphia?

Each of these situations was different. Chicago didn’t want to pay Butler a maximum contract, so they decided to trade him to Minnesota for a package of young players and draft picks.

The situation in Minnesota was very similar to this: Butler was unhappy with his contract and requested a trade. There was one huge difference, however: Butler had just turned 29, not 35. He was eventually sent to the 76ers for Dario Saric, Robert Covington, Jerryd Bayless and a second-round pick.

Then, after one season in Philadelphia, the 76ers essentially opted to pay a combination of Tobias Harris, Josh Richardson and Al Horford instead of Butler, sending him to Miami in a sign-and-trade in the summer of 2019. – Bontemps

Can the 7-game ban be extended? Have previous players been banned for so long because of similar stalemates?

The suspension includes Saturday’s home game against the Utah Jazz and the upcoming six-game road trip. It’s clear that Riley is sending the message that he doesn’t want Butler on the team right now. The unknown is what happens when the suspension ends before Miami’s Jan. 19 home game against the San Antonio Spurs.

Unless Butler is deemed to be violating the anti-conduct policy in his contract from the start of the suspension, Miami cannot extend the suspension to additional games. Since the suspension is by the team and not the NBA, the Heat will not receive any luxurious tax savings.

Butler isn’t the only player to be suspended by his team over the last three seasons. In November 2022, the Brooklyn Nets suspended guard Kyrie Irving for eight games for “failure to be associated with the team” after the guard failed to say he did not have anti-Semitic beliefs. — Markings

How much will Butler be fined and can a complaint be filed?

Butler will be fined $336,543 for each of the seven games missed. The amount represents 1/145 of his $48.8 million salary, for a total of $2.4 million. Butler has 30 days to file a complaint and the fined amount will remain in escrow until the situation is resolved. The complaint process can take up to a year. The NBA Players Association issued a statement late Friday saying the suspension was excessive and inappropriate.

Which teams could actually trade for him?

Butler asking for a trade and the Heat listening to offers now doesn’t change the challenge of finding a new home for the former All-Star. The combination of Butler’s $48.8 million salary this season and nearly a third of teams not allowed to take back more salary in a trade complicates any potential deal.

Three of the four teams on Butler’s wish list – the Dallas Mavericks, the Golden State Warriors and the Phoenix Suns – would either have to trade a quarter of their roster. The Suns would have to get Bradley Beal to waive his no-trade clause. Sources told ESPN that the Heat had no desire to reclaim the $110 million they owed Beal and that Phoenix would have to find a third team. The Warriors and Mavericks would likely need to find a third or fourth team to redirect some of the contracts being sent out.

The Heat are also not allowed to take back more salary because they are a frontcourt team. — Markings

Could Butler help a contender this season and in the future (if he were to re-sign with this team)?

That depends on how much Butler benefits from rediscovering the joy of basketball with another team. His 17.6 PPG this season is Butler’s lowest since 2013-14, the year before he won Most Improved Player and was named an All-Star for the first time, but there is reason to believe Butler elsewhere has more to give.

Butler’s usage rate is 21%, well below last season’s 24%. At the same time, Butler scores more efficiently. His true shooting percentage of .648 would be the best of his NBA career, just ahead of 2023-24. And Butler’s 58% two-point shooting is certainly a career high, suggesting his drop in points is due to his selection rather than his inability to create shots.

Not only do Butler’s peripheral stats continue to be strong, we also have ample evidence that “Playoff Jimmy” is at his best when the stakes are highest. During Butler’s four playoff runs in Miami – before missing the Heat’s first-round loss to the Celtics in 2024 with an MCL sprain – he led the NBA with 12.4 wins by my WARP (wins above replacement) metric over that span.

During the regular season, Butler ranked just sixth overall in WARP in respective seasons. He produced 3.7 more WARP in the playoffs than we would expect based on his regular season performance. Only Denver guard Jamal Murray was a better playoff overperformer than Butler from 2020 to 2023.

At some point, Butler’s age (35) will undoubtedly take its toll, which explains Miami’s reluctance to offer him a max extension. My SCHOENE prediction system predicts Butler will drop by about three wins in regular season value over the next three seasons, based on the development of similar players at the same age. Although Butler is still among the NBA’s top 20 players in his 2025-26 projection, that projection drops to 45th for 2027-28. — Kevin Pelton

What type of expansion is Butler looking for? What is the most likely outcome before the trade deadline?

Due to the league’s over-38 rule, the maximum two-year contract extension Miami can sign Butler to is $112.6 million. That would replace his $52.4 million player option for next season with a new salary starting at $54.1 million. In the second year, Butler would be paid $58.5 million when he turns 37.

If Butler were traded, he would be eligible to sign a two-year, $111 million contract extension with his new team.

A trade demand from Butler and the suspension that has now occurred does not mean that the Heat are obligated to make a trade. If Miami doesn’t get an offer they like, they can either let Butler hit free agency if he declines his player option – or work together on a trade.

Butler, who turns 36 in September, doesn’t fit the roster plan of the Brooklyn Nets, the only team projected to have more than $40 million in player cap space. — Marks

Are we sure he will even be traded?

No. The way things played out with George last year with the Clippers is a blueprint for how this situation could play out over the next few months.

The NBA’s longstanding paradigm in such situations is that the team needs to “get something” with a disgruntled player like Butler and trade him somewhere. However, this was a previous financial reality in which the league existed.

Under this far more restrictive collective bargaining agreement, the NBA operates in an environment that is much closer to a hard cap environment than it once was. So if the process of getting something in a deal requires a team to take back negative long-term salary, that can cause real problems for a team trying to get past such a deal in the future. That’s doubly true for the Heat, who remain one of the league’s hottest destinations for players and want as much flexibility as possible to acquire more high-end talent in the future.

That’s one of several reasons why the Heat are hesitant to take back long-term money from a Butler trade, according to sources. Combined with trade restrictions making it difficult to move large salaries around the league, sources around the league are far from confident that a deal is guaranteed to happen next month. — Bontemps