Juan Soto broke Shohei Ohtani’s contract record after one year. How long will Soto’s record deal last?

Juan Soto broke Shohei Ohtani’s contract record after one year. How long will Soto’s record deal last?

Shohei Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million contract has shattered any notion of how big a baseball contract can be. And then, a year later, Juan Soto surpassed it in every way imaginable.

It’s 15 years and $765 million for the New York Mets’ newest slugger. Unlike Ohtani, the deal does not include any deferred money. Unlike Ohtani, the deal includes escalators that could bring the total value to $800 million. Unlike Ohtani, the deal comes with an opt-out, which the Mets can override by paying in an additional $40 million.

Soto and his agent Scott Boras got everything they could want, and the result is the largest contract in the history of the sport.

That Ohtani’s record was broken after one season is startling, but perhaps not that surprising considering we knew Soto’s payday was coming. The question now, however, is when the next Juan Soto will emerge in free agency. Which MLB player could possibly reach the $765 million mark?

To find out, we’ll go through future free agent classes and try to figure out which player is on track for a mega deal.

It’s not particularly difficult to figure out which players could enter the elite tier of free agent signings. They have to be position players because no team is going to spend that much money on a pitcher who isn’t made of adamantium, and they have to be young, like Soto at 26 years old.

And of course they have to be very, very good.

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 26: Juan Soto #22 of the New York Yankees throws his bat over as he runs the bases after hitting a solo home run in the third inning in the second game of the 2024 World Series at Dodger vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers Stadium on October 26, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 26: Juan Soto #22 of the New York Yankees throws his bat over as he runs the bases after hitting a solo home run in the third inning in the second game of the 2024 World Series at Dodger vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers Stadium on October 26, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Juan Soto’s contract will no longer be honored in many, many years. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Next year’s top name will be a good friend of Soto’s: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The Toronto Blue Jays attempted to unite the two but failed due to the sheer financial power of the Mets under owner Steve Cohen. Guerrero expects a deal worth about $300 million — nowhere near as good as Soto. He could also have free agency at age 26, but he’s not as good a hitter as Soto and plays a position further down the defensive spectrum.

Aside from Guerrero, we’re talking guys like Kyle Tucker, Dylan Cease and Luis Arraez.

This class is starting to look awfully pitcher-heavy, with Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet serving as the headliners. As spectacular as Skubal has been this year, he will also be a 30-year-old who has an injury history that includes Tommy John surgery.

As far as position players go, the group looks pretty bleak. Interested in Alec Bohm? Adolis Garcia? Randy Arozarena? That will be the case for some teams, but not enough to get those players anywhere near the top of deals. Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies are both technically free agents this winter, but the Atlanta Braves will have club options on both.

This could be the catcher’s winter as Baltimore Orioles backstop Adleyrutschman is the big name and he is flanked by William Contreras of the Milwaukee Brewers and Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners.

Catcher is an important position, but its physical demands are so strenuous that teams rarely invest large contracts in backstops. Joe Mauer’s old deal is still the largest at $184 million, which is essentially Willy Adames money. rutschman is great, but he faces significant headwinds if he wants to advance to the next level of contract.

In addition to the catchers, there are Logan Gilbert, Steven Kwan, Ozzie Albies, Luis Robert Jr. and many more who won’t touch Soto money.

Here’s the big one. If you’re looking for a player who, like Soto, plays a paid position, has several more years left in free agency at 20 years old, and hires Boras, Gunnar Henderson is probably the best answer in this whole matter, especially because he’s a rookie Classmate Bobby Witt Jr. has already been paid.

In three MLB seasons, Henderson hit .268/.346/.504 while playing the primary position off battery. Everything about him screams huge free agent status, and he will enter the 2029 offseason just a year older than Soto is now.

And yet, in order to surpass Soto, Henderson will have to a) keep that bat for four more years while avoiding injuries and b) continue to grow the MLB free agent market. It is the biggest compliment for him that we even say that this is possible.

Elly De La Cruz is an electric talent and so strikeout-prone that it’s hard to imagine teams wanting to invest in him in his late 30s. Jackson Merrill had a great rookie season at age 21, but that’s all we can say at this point.

These are guys who are two years or less into their MLB careers, which really shows what a special talent Soto is. By the end of his sophomore year, Soto was a career .287/.403/.535 hitter, a World Series ring and one of the game’s most advanced batting eyes. We already knew he and his team were going to get an absurd amount of money.

Paul Skenes is on track to be the next MLB ace, if he isn’t already, but he’s a pitcher too. Arm injuries are basically a given for modern pitchers, and that’s why big deals for them are rare. At this point, we simply don’t know who the biggest free agent in this class will be since it’s six years from now.

Jackson Chourio would have been a great answer here after a fantastic rookie year in his age-20 season, but he has already signed an eight-year extension with the Milwaukee Brewers.

Do you see a trend with these names? With the exception of Henderson, none of them appear to be on track to get anywhere close to Soto and Ohtani, which is why the Mets and Dodgers paid so much for their superstars.

When we say that free agents like Soto come along once in a generation, we’re not exaggerating. Soto brings an incredible mix of power, stability, youth, health and postseason performance, with every major MLB team having a use for him. How can we expect a player like that to show up again?

Shohei Ohtani (left) and Juan Soto at the 2021 Home Run Derby in Denver while playing for the Angels and Nationals, respectively. Each of them made sports history in free agency. (Photo by Matt Dirksen/Colorado Rockies/Getty Images)Shohei Ohtani (left) and Juan Soto at the 2021 Home Run Derby in Denver while playing for the Angels and Nationals, respectively. Each of them made sports history as free agents. (Photo by Matt Dirksen/Colorado Rockies/Getty Images)

Shohei Ohtani (left) and Juan Soto at the 2021 Home Run Derby in Denver while playing for the Angels and Nationals, respectively. Each of them made sports history in free agency. (Photo by Matt Dirksen/Colorado Rockies/Getty Images)

If there is only one telescope to see Halley’s Comet, rich people will fight each other for that telescope. And in this case, the next Soto — the next guy who’ll have us screaming profanities into our phones after seeing the biggest number in the history of sports contracts — probably hasn’t made his MLB debut yet.

The situation is analogous to Alex Rodriguez, who signed a 10-year, $252 million contract with the Texas Rangers in 2000, when the contract record was $121 million. Until Albert Pujols signed a $210 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels after the 2010 season, MLB didn’t get another $200 million contract, aside from the $275 million Rodriguez got when he opted out in 2007 .

It took a full decade for the market to catch up.

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