Justin Trudeau is trying to save his party. Is he hurting Canada?

Justin Trudeau is trying to save his party. Is he hurting Canada?

Justin Trudeau’s announcement of his resignation on Monday was the last card left to play by Canada’s deeply unpopular prime minister, who had put his party on track to lose a national election.

The policy levers he has pulled will give Mr. Trudeau’s Liberal Party a chance to reinvent itself without him. But they will also leave Canada weakened as it prepares for President-elect Donald J. Trump, who has threatened the country with tariffs that could cripple its economy.

It appears to be a risk Mr. Trudeau is willing to take.

To give his party’s thousands of members a chance to elect his successor – a lengthy process that requires an election campaign – Mr Trudeau suspended Parliament until March 24. Parliamentary elections are expected to take place afterwards.

In countries with parliamentary systems like Canada’s, it is common practice to hold a party leadership election before a general election. Suspending Parliament to hold such an election is far less common. By doing so, Mr. Trudeau avoids the likely collapse of his minority government and gives the Liberals time to elect a leader who will not be burdened by his dismal poll numbers.

But it means that in two weeks, when Mr. Trump returns to the Oval Office, Mr. Trudeau will be running Canada like a lame duck, weakening the country in crucial negotiations with his closest ally.

“The prime minister’s resignation means it will be difficult for him to exercise a meaningful mandate in negotiations with the United States, and it does not signal unity within Canada,” said Xavier Delgado, senior program fellow at the Canada Institute of Canada Wilson Center Washington-based foreign policy research institute. “It’s not a good time for Canada to be in this situation.”

Mr. Trudeau’s opponents wanted a quick general election that would allow a new government with a new mandate — presumably led by Pierre Poilievre, whose Conservative Party has a commanding lead in polls — to become Canada’s answer to Mr. Trump as quickly as possible to lead.

Mr. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on Canadian goods that could plunge the country’s economy into recession and upend the North American trade pact struck in recent decades. (It would also be harmful to the U.S. economy; the two nations are each other’s largest trading partners.)

The president-elect has repeatedly suggested that Canada should become part of the United States, calling it the “51st.” State”. He repeated his menacing joke on social media Monday following Mr. Trudeau’s resignation announcement: “Many people in Canada LOVE being the 51st nation,” Mr. Trump said in a post on Truth Social, promising no tariffs if Canada “with whom would merge”. US”

When Mr. Trudeau became leader of the Liberals, the party was in shambles. It came third in the 2011 national elections for the first time in its history. Mr. Trudeau, who took the leadership in 2013, is widely credited with raising it from the dead and bringing it back into government two years later.

“The Liberal Party, such as it is, has been Justin Trudeau’s party for more than a decade,” said Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, a research center. That made it difficult for the party to let go of him and for Mr. Trudeau to relinquish control, Ms. Kurl said.

But Mr. Trudeau finally admitted Monday morning that his time was up after weeks of pressure from the party to resign.

“I really feel like eliminating the dispute over my continued leadership is an opportunity to lower the temperature,” he told reporters gathered in the freezing cold outside his Ottawa residence.

“With the internal disputes, it has become clear to me that I cannot be the one to carry the liberal standard into the next election,” he added. Until the Liberals elect their new leader, he will remain in that role and as prime minister, Mr. Trudeau said.

The party’s internal election process, which will take several weeks, will allow a handful of candidates to reintroduce themselves to the public, no longer as Trudeau staffers but as individuals vying for leadership of the party and the country.

“I think the Liberals are now clinging to the idea that there is no path forward for him, but there is certainly a path forward for someone else,” Ms. Kurl said.

Still, the path Mr. Trudeau leaves for his successor is likely to be treacherous, with the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 25 percentage points in recent polls.

“Sixty or 90 days is not a long time to reinvent a party after 10 years in power,” Ms. Kurl said. “How many rabbits are left in the hat?” How many pivot points are there left?”

For many Canadians, Mr. Trudeau’s departure was a necessary condition if they wanted to consider voting for the Liberals.

David Coletto, head of polling firm Abacus Data, said initial research on Monday suggested Canadians were relieved at the news of Trudeau’s resignation and that his departure had the potential to divert attention from his unpopularity.

“People say they are relieved and optimistic about the prime minister’s resignation,” he said. “This is a signal to me that there may be an opportunity for the Liberals to rebuild relations with Canadians.” But it is far from certain that this will happen, he warned.

While Mr. Trudeau’s departure can only improve the Liberals’ situation, analysts say, the country is unlikely to benefit from a virtual leaderless situation when Mr. Trump takes office.

As the new president begins to push his agenda – which has Canada in his crosshairs as Mr Trump has complained about border security, Canadian military spending and a trade imbalance – Canada will try to figure out who is in charge.

“Canada would be strongest in dealing with the United States if it could agree on its leader’s message – and that would apply to every country,” said Mr. Delgado of the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute.

Others were less concerned, suggesting that Canada’s dealings with the Trump administration would be a long game.

Gerald Butts, a former top adviser to Mr. Trudeau and now vice president of Eurasia Group, a consulting firm, said no leader would be able to make a deal with Mr. Trump on day one.

“Nothing irrevocably bad will happen in the next three months,” Mr Butts said. “We will have Trump for four years; The next three months won’t be the whole story.”

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