Alim Sailybaev knows how to drive change: He is literally developing Kazakhstan’s voluntary carbon credit market from seed. And he does it on the parched bottom of the Aral Sea.

When we meet at a planting site in Aralkum, one of the youngest deserts on earth, 50 kilometers northwest of the fishing village of Karateren, Sailybaev is brimming with ideas: micro-nurseries for seedlings, an eco-corridor, a green e-currency and much more crowdfunding -Platform. His salty hair blows as he excitedly discusses concepts ranging from green ecology, sustainable development, equity financing, anthropology and Richard Florida’s transformation theory.

“One thing is to create a new ecosystem. Another is to certify the carbon model (to make it financially sustainable),” he says.

Sailybaev, 50, was born in Almaty and studied international relations at “Q” University, which bills itself as Kazakhstan’s first private university. He moved to the UK in the late 1990s to study diplomacy at the University of Reading and in 2003 received another master’s degree, this time in economics and cultural studies at the City, University of London.

In recent decades he has worked largely in the development sector, including at the United Nations Development Program. However, his career has really been about innovation and creating transformative value for communities and businesses. Lately his focus has been on going green.

“In terms of CO2 emissions, Aralkum is terra incognita”

In 2023, Kazakhstan adopted a strategy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 and aims to offset emissions by developing carbon sinks. The state regulatory framework for carbon quotas is set out in the Environmental Code of January 2021. However, the agricultural sector is left out of the national carbon unit plan. And the voluntary carbon market that is just beginning to take shape looks more like a financial Wild West than a Holy Land of Opportunity.

In February 2023, around the same time as the government’s carbon strategy was launched, Sailybaev founded Qazaq Carbon. The platform aims not only to solve environmental problems, but also to restore degraded lands, preserve biodiversity and improve community well-being.

In May, Qazaq Carbon partnered with public association Aral Oasis to implement a series of projects in the Aral Sea region, which has largely dried up and become an environmental disaster area over the past 60 years.

After 2005, the World Bank’s eight-mile-long Kok-Aral Dam returned water to some areas. Elsewhere, efforts have focused on creating new ecosystems by planting saxaul – green, sturdy shrubs whose roots can absorb up to 8,818 pounds of sand.

“We are in the middle of the new desert, but as far as carbon content is concerned, it is terra incognita,” Sailybaev said, meaning that there are no ready solutions for measuring the carbon potential of Saxaul plots on the exposed Aral Sea floor.

Qazaq Carbon works with a Scottish company, Plan Vivo, and the Swiss-based Open Forest Protocol. Both help small farmers generate CO2 credits. However, their expertise is largely focused on tropical and subtropical climates and is not directly transferable to Kazakhstan, which is 99 percent dryland. That’s why it’s important to think outside the box.

CO2 revenue, a financial lever for agricultural parks?!

In April, trading prices in the European Union exceeded $60 per ton (2,200 pounds) of CO? Equivalent. But Kazakhstan’s oil sector, which is heavily dominated by state-owned companies, is unwilling to pay more than $5, according to Sailybaev.

Creating a voluntary carbon market will inevitably drive up prices, he added, resulting in higher electricity, gasoline and fuel bills. It is no surprise that the move has received little political support so far, he said. Introducing the auctioning of carbon credits requires changes to environmental and stock market legislation, but such measures have struggled to gain support in parliament.

Nevertheless, Sailybaev is ready to break new ground: “Kazakhstan lacks affordable long-term investments in agriculture; It is a high-risk business.” The idea is to use carbon units as a financial tool to create a value chain for the development of local agricultural parks.

Given Kazakhstan’s proximity to China, such agricultural parks have the potential to provide large new markets in China for Kazakh organic food grown according to European standards. “Carbon revenue would replace agricultural subsidies and make it a viable financial lever.”

Qazaq Carbon supports farmers in developing planting models with carbon targets in mind. Certification can be done through NGOs such as Plan Vivo. Sailybaev is also considering an e-currency backed by carbon units. This would be a way for companies to buy products directly from agricultural parks in exchange for carbon offsets, he said.

But despite all the zeal, there are still huge challenges. Large Kazakh customers, including banks and airlines, are reluctant to buy carbon units from small farmers, preferring package deals instead.

The emerging voluntary carbon market in Kazakhstan is unknown to US and EU traders working with Western industry. “We’re just starting out, we don’t have much background knowledge and the competition is tough,” he said.

The pricing machinery is also still in its infancy. Kazakhstan’s emissions trading system, introduced in 2013, has been criticized for creating a surplus of free quotas.

“The green economy is neo-nomadic”

Sailybaev is aware of the hurdles he faces. But as a former cultural scientist, he advocates a broader perspective. “The low-carbon economy is a cultural phenomenon. It’s about new ways of thinking and new values,” he said. “In the Aral Sea region, an entire generation grew up on handouts,” he added, referring to social benefits in the environmental disaster zone. “And that corrupted people terribly.”

“Our goal is to help young people break out of this victim mentality,” he said. In May, Aral Oasis and Qazaq Carbon launched “100 Micro Nurseries.” The new project aims to empower communities to plant “green belt” seedlings.

“We want local people, especially women and girls, to grow saxaul seedlings from seeds in three auls (villages),” said Zauresh Alimbetova, head of the public association Aral Oasis. “We will then buy these seedlings for 100 tenge (about $0.20) each and plant them on the (exposed parts of) the Aral Sea.”

The aim is to create an eco-corridor to the Barsakelmes Biosphere Reserve, a former island in the Aral Sea where free-living kulans (wild donkeys) and dzerens (cropped gazelles) live. By October 2025, around 250,000 seedlings will be planted on 300 hectares. At a later date, communities will also create “green belts” around their auls to prevent sand from entering.

So far the project has been managed by Freedom Holding Corp. and the GEF Small Grants Program. A crowdfunding platform will be launched in January to explore further financing options. High-resolution satellite maps will help track green developments online, and three Auls will compete in a bizarre duel.

Sailybaev is ready to play a long game. “We are preparing for the next 20 years,” he said. “We are the descendants of nomads. Autonomy, tolerance, openness, mobility and adaptability have accompanied us across the steppe.” These values, in modern form, will drive Kazakhstan’s green transition, he reflected. “They are actually neo-nomadic.”

Research for this article was made possible with support from the Pulitzer Center.

By Ekaterina Venkina via Eurasianet.org

More top reads from Oilprice.com

Read this article on OilPrice.com