Happy New Year, blog readers –

January is a month where it tends to be cold and snowy… so let’s get started!

There’s a weak gravy system passing through to our north on Thursday, but oh boy is it going to be interesting there this weekend.

Thursday

Expect a cloudy and cool start into the morning with light snow in areas north of Highway 36. It should stay mostly dust and anything that sticks will stay under an inch.

KSHB 41 – Cassie Wilson

In Kansas City, the sun should try to come out a bit during the afternoon, with temperatures remaining mild, in the mid to low 40s.

But that was it for a while with mild temperatures. High pressure will occur Friday, drawing in cool air and triggering a nine-day cold snap. Be careful, the cold snap also brings unpleasant arctic air!

KSHB 41 – Cassie Wilson

weekend

When it comes to this weekend, here are the key things to keep in mind:

1. There is potential for ice (and could impact I-70 and areas to the south)
2. Some large snow zones are possible (especially north of the metro…but the main destination is still open)
3. This is all happening during a really cold part of our forecast

The threat of ice seems likely because this system initially sucks in some warm air.
Expect a mix of rainfall to come into focus between 4pm and 6pm on Saturday. I think we could see some ice accumulating near the I-70 corridor and areas to the south.

I’m keeping a close eye on our Kansas friends near and along I-35. So if you are in these areas, be sure to stay up to date on the ice potential and the development of this forecast. A little push from north to south can make all the difference.

KSHB 41 – Cassie Wilson

KSHB 41 – Cassie Wilson

As we head toward sunrise on Sunday, the ice potential will begin to fade and we will see the back side of this system – the cold air and main snow potential will begin to take effect.

Tracking low temperatures is crucial to determining where the biggest snowfall will occur. The area we observe is called the deformation zone. This is the area behind the low where the heaviest bands of snow form. Right now it looks like that will be the case through midday Sunday…but that’s subject to change, and a small shift in the low could create big waves where the heaviest snow falls.

KSHB 41 – Cassie Wilson

So right now the models are spitting out some high amounts of snow because they’re confident that this deformation zone will hit right over Kansas City.

Some have totals in the 6 to 10 inch range, but for now I think it’s a safe bet to expect somewhere between 3 and 6 inches around the subway core.

KSHB 41 – Cassie Wilson

However, stay tuned to this snow forecast as we can assess what will strike a little better, where and when. So when it comes to getting to the halfway mark on the subway, remember that forecasting is a science, even if the models suggest so. Here are a few things to back that number up a bit.

The most snow we have ever seen in 24 hours was 16.1 inches in 1912.

KSHB 41 – Cassie Wilson

Let’s look at the most recent snowfall over 6 inches that fell in the winter of 2022 when a blizzard brought 7 inches of snow to KCI. But remember, when it comes to achieving a snow depth of at least 6 inches, this has only happened 68 times in KC’s history!

This is a very small amount considering we kept 49,673 records within 24 hours. That means 6 or more inches of snow will fall 0.14% of the time.

But Cassie, it really only snows a few months a year. Well, that doesn’t change the statistics. In Kansas City, 16,557 winter days were recorded and only 68 of them had a “major snowfall,” meaning we’re still talking about less than 1% of winter days.

KSHB 41 – Cassie Wilson

That being said, this may be the biggest storm of the year or two years and we will keep you updated 24/7.

So be sure to follow the entire KSHB 41 weather team as we battle through the ice, snow and cold weather over the next week!

And remember to be kind to one another.

—