LeBron James and Stephen Curry will meet on Christmas Day for the fourth time and 24th time overall. Can James lead his team to victory tonight against a familiar opponent, or will the chef cook at home to get his team back on track at Chase Center? Tipoff occurs at 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.

My Lakers-Warriors predictions are for King James to put in a strong scoring performance in the spotlight of this primetime matchup.

Read my NBA tips to learn why you should get James’ scoring prop in the over.

Lakers vs Warriors prediction

My best choice
LeBron James over 22.5 points (-125 at bet365)

My analysis

LeBron James is usually at his best when the lights are brightest, and he’ll look to stay productive in a prime-time Christmas Day showdown with Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors. James has played on Christmas Day 18 times in his career and averaged 26.4 points in those games. He has averaged 25.8 points on Christmas since joining the Los Angeles Lakers.

James has hit the over on this line in three of his last five Christmas games and 12 of 18 overall. I expect him to recognize the gravity of the moment and come out firing. There’s no guarantee we’ll see LeBron vs. Curry again in a game as big as this one, and James will do everything he can to make this contest entertaining.

James is averaging 23.2 points per game this season and has reached the over on that line in 12 of 27 games. He was a slightly better scorer away than at home, and seven of his 12 games with at least 23 points took place outside the Crypto.Com Arena. James has scored at least 28 points in two straight games and I’m counting on James to extend that streak tonight.

Defensively, this isn’t a scary matchup. The Warriors are eighth in season-long defensive rating at 109.7, but over the last five games, Golden State is 27th at 119.6. I expect James to take over this game and deliver a top-notch performance when it matters most. This is a simple over.

Same game between Lakers and Warriors

LeBron James over 22.5 points

Over 225

Anthony Davis Over 11.5 rebounds

Anthony Davis has grabbed at least 12 rebounds in 13 of 28 games this season. That includes three of his last four appearances, and his streak of 15 rebounds was snapped at three as he grabbed just 10 boards against the Pistons on Monday. Davis faced Golden State three times last season. He only played 12 minutes and four rebounds in one game, but in the two games he played at least 30 minutes, Davis had 15 and 13 rebounds.

During the 2022-23 season, AD averaged 12.9 rebounds in 10 matchups with Golden State and hit the over four times on that line. Davis was a better rebounder at home (12.5) than away (10.9), putting him in a favorable position to win the over here. Golden State has allowed the fourth-most rebounds to opponents, and I love the over for Davis here.

As mentioned above, the Warriors have struggled to contain their opponents in recent meetings. The Dubs allowed just 110.8 points per game all season (12th-fewest), but over the last three games, Golden State gave up 119.3 points per game (7th-highest). The Lakers have allowed the 13th most points per game to their opponents this season, conceding 114.6 on the road.

These teams have reached the over in two straight games and in five of the last six head-to-head meetings dating back to the 2022-23 playoffs. After five unders in a row, the Lakers reached the over on Monday. Although these teams have only reached the over in 24 of 33 games overall, I expect this to be a high-scoring game as James & Co. benefit from the Warriors’ defense, which has been quite generous of late.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

More NBA Christmas Day picks from Covers

Lakers vs Warriors odds

Live odds between Lakers and Warriors

Lakers vs Warriors opening odds

• Spread: Los Angeles +3.5 (-110) | Golden State -3.5 (-110)
• Money line: Los Angeles +135 | Golden State -160
• Over/Under: Over 225 (-110) | Under 225 (-110)

Odds courtesy of bet365.

Lakers vs. Warriors distribution and over/under analysis

• Los Angeles is 1-3 straight and ATS in its last four games, and the team is 16-13 straight and 13-16 ATS.
• Golden State has suffered four losses and covered two of its last five games, increasing its team record to 15-13 in a row and 15-12-1 ATS.
• The Lakers have hit the over just once in their last six games, and they have shot over it in 12 of 29 games this season.
• The Warriors have lost in three straight games and in 16 of 28 games.
• Covers consensus data shows that 61% of picks are on the Warriors side, while 66% are on the over side.

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