It’s no surprise that the Detroit Lions were aggressive on fourth down in their 34-31 win on Thursday night against the Green Bay Packers. Since Dan Campbell led the team, fourth-place Detroit has been one of the most aggressive teams. In his first year they finished first in fourth relegation attempts, in 2022 they were third, in 2023 they were second and this year they are currently tied for sixth place.

But Campbell made some decisions Thursday night that seemed more than just aggressive and reckless.

On the first play, with the Lions leading 24-21 late in the third quarter, Campbell went for a fourth-and-1 from his own 31-yard line. Detroit couldn’t convert. Four plays later, the Packers seized the advantageous field position and turned it into a 28-24 lead early in the fourth quarter.

It may surprise you to learn that, according to one analytical model, this was the right move by a fairly large margin. According to Ben Baldwin’s Fourth Down Decision Bot, Campbell’s decision increased Detroit’s win percentage by nearly six percent.

While Campbell is generally half analytical and half gut, he had a compelling explanation for why the Lions were so aggressive on fourth down on this particular day (they attempted five conversions).

“Our offense, we knew they had to carry the load,” Campbell said. “‘You gotta carry a little bit more backpacks and stuff,’ and man, we did that, they did that.”

Detroit was severely undermanned on defense in this game. They had to use three players added earlier in the week and lost their only remaining starter on the defensive line (Alim McNeill) to a head injury midway through the contest. The Lions knew they needed the offense to carry it through, and they did. These fourth down conversions helped extend drives, allowing the Lions’ offense to run a total of 76 plays and have 36 minutes of possession. The Lions defense only had to play 45 plays and 24 minutes.

While it’s easy to point out that the one failed conversion cost the Lions seven points, don’t overlook the impact of all the other four conversions. Two of Detroit’s four touchdowns came on fourth down, and the last one – another controversial decision – led directly to the Lions winning the game.

Instead of kicking a 39-yard field goal with about 40 seconds left, which gave Packers quarterback Jordan Love a small chance to move downfield and tie the game (with no timeouts), the Lions opted to time to try again on fourth and one. David Montgomery collected seven yards, the Lions ran the rest of the game and Jake Bates won the game with a 35-yard field goal.

“I just felt like we had to finish it on offense and I didn’t want to give the ball back and I believed we could get it,” Campbell said. “I believed we could convert, and I trust that O-line, I trust David (Montgomery), and they came through for us. It’s a heck of a decision by (offensive coordinator) Ben (Johnson). I knew how I wanted to play this game, the team knew it and everything in me said, ‘Let’s finish this,’ and so we did.”

And that’s the other part of the equation. You can look at any fourth-down model, but that doesn’t measure confidence. The Lions have a physically impressive offensive line and a brilliant offensive coordinator, and that’s what gives Campbell the, as Jared Goff put it, “stones” to make his gameday decisions.

“You know you’re taking a lot of risk,” Campbell said. “There is a risk, but I felt like it wasn’t as much of a risk as it might seem with our guys.”