Market Share Report: Jonnu Smith Achieves Stud Status; Ameer Abdullah is a worthy addition for Week 13

Market Share Report: Jonnu Smith Achieves Stud Status; Ameer Abdullah is a worthy addition for Week 13

Target and touch totals are important, but not as important as market share. Targets is largely a receiver statistic (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the running back’s currency.

What we do is really simple. For pass catchers, the market share is equal to the targets divided by the team’s pass attempts. For running backs, it’s touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).

The number of snaps, depth of target, and type of touch (running back receptions are far more valuable than carries) are also important, but are generally not discussed here. That’s pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for evaluating waivers and trades.

Here is the list. Make sure you select the current week, although all weeks of the season are archived so you can get a multi-week sample of a player if you wish. Also note that I have made a great effort to provide these statistics on a weekly basis. The aim is to react quickly to current trends. Annual statistics flatten everything to a somewhat meaningless middle. As our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be completely right, you have to be willing to be completely wrong.”

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Running back touches

There were a lot of byes in Week 12, so the column is shorter than usual. You have to think about your byes in Week 14 – Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Patriots, Commanders.

The Saquon Barkley Managers want me to say something (Sunday night is not covered in my Sunday Takeaway column). He was a god. Without the tush push, Barkley would have a top-five RB season in fantasy history. In this week’s market report, he was No. 1 with a 44 percent percentage of his 30 touches (over 300 yards).

Nick Chubb converted chances on the goal line. The efficiency wasn’t there and the Browns’ schedule is brutal, but No. 6 is No. 6.

Rico Dowdle is now over 70 percent on the roster and was the No. 7 prospect in the model, although it would be nice if he could finally find the end zone on the ground. Still, he is a low-end RB2.

Bucky Irving was almost 30 percent, and Rachaad White wasn’t far behind. The Bucs ran their offense through their RBs, although that was likely determined by the matchup. Irving is a very good, perhaps great player and elite runner. He doesn’t have the role of goalkeeper and shares the rest of the work, but in flatter leagues it is very difficult to leave him on the bench. However, despite his top skills, he is not a true RB1.

Ameer Abdullah is worth picking up this week if you are in need. He’s probably the top waiver player among RBs who are less than 25 percent on the roster. We don’t know Alexander Mattisons status, but since he was doubtful in Week 12, he’s likely out in Week 13. The QB change won’t help him, but the game script offers a good floor and probably about five catches for 35 yards against the Chiefs, which is a nice starting point in PPR.

If JK Dobbins is out with his bad knee, Gus Edwards will probably take on a more important role. He will definitely be the goalkeeper. I would prefer Abdullah in the PPR assuming the injuries go in the right direction for both of them.

Jaylen Warren is someone we wouldn’t normally want to start, but he was 22. The Steelers have become an extremely run-dominant team.

Recipient goals

The biggest news in the rankings is David Moore – played in less than 1 percent of leagues – ranked 8th. He had 10 goals – that’s usually a given for me. He has had at least 82 percent snaps in the last four games, setting a season-high against the Chiefs. He has the Bucs this week and again in our playoffs.

TE Trey McBridestill without a touchdown, was No. 1 in the report at 40.5 percent.

We trust CeeDee Lamb on Thanksgiving? He was No. 2. Cooper Rush looked competent. The problem is that he was picked as your best receiver, but now you’d take 15 points when 30 almost seems out of the question.

Zay flowers is in such a depressed passing offense that he’s almost certainly falling short of his market share, especially given his touchdown woes. But you have to play him in the Flex10 format (three WRs and one Flex).

Malik Nabers was No. 10 in the report. I don’t understand what he’s complaining about. The QBs stink – that’s the problem, not the play-calling.

Jonnu Smith is now a stallion. I can’t believe I’m writing this. He’s the No. 1 option in Miami’s passing game, and teams won’t care enough about him to try to stop him. It’s perfect.

Noah Brown is widespread. He was No. 13 and easy to beat Terry McLaurin. Again, if you complete 10 goals, I will automatically count you off the waivers.

Sterling Shepard was in model 24., but didn’t do anything. Despite it, Mike Evans was back, and it was at 23.3 percent. I hate to denigrate market share, but in this case I will, even though Shepard’s ranking is noted for decision.

I am more optimistic Joshua Palmerwho had more snaps than Quentin Johnston. Additionally, Johnston was having a bad day, dropping an almost certain touchdown that would have tied the game in the fourth quarter. Palmer, ranked 30th in the rankings, was open and missed a long play – maybe a TD. If Dobbins is injured, he could see the overall pass volume increase.

Devaughn Vele was 21.4 percent, about the same level as Palmer. He was also very effective for the Broncos, who can be expected to botch their pathetic running game.

Cole Kmet is now a TE starter for every format. Book him again in week 13 for five to seven catches.

(Photo by Jonnu Smith: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)

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