Patriots history to watch: In the Patriots and Bills’ last two games in Buffalo, the opening kickoff was returned for a touchdown, something that has never happened in consecutive seasons between the same teams at the same venue. This will also be the coldest game for Patriots rookie quarterback Drake Maye, with the forecast calling for temperatures in the teens. “I’m excited to wear long sleeves for the first time and embrace it,” he said. – Mike Reiss

Bill’s plot to watch: The Bills’ offense has a chance to become the first team to score more than 30 points in nine straight games. The Patriots have given up 24.1 points per game this season (10th worst). New England’s biggest task will be slowing down MVP candidate Josh Allen, who could also become the first quarterback in the last 90 years to score multiple rushing touchdowns in three consecutive games, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. — Alaina Getzenberg

Statistics you should know: Maye has scored a passing touchdown in six straight games starting Sunday. Another would tie Jim Plunkett (1971) for the longest streak by a rookie in franchise history.

Bold prediction: Bills Edge Von Miller will record at least one sack. He has just one sack since returning from suspension in Week 9, but actually boasts a 25% pass-rush win rate at the rim over that span, which is third-best at the position. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Bills are in a battle with the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed. According to ESPN Analytics, Buffalo’s odds increase to 25% with a win and drop to 3.6% with a loss. On the other hand, the Patriots’ chances of being ranked No. 1 increase to 30% if they lose.

Fantasy X Factor: Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir. He was often targeted by Allen, with seven or more targets in eight games and two with ten or more. Shakir has scored 16 or more fantasy points in consecutive games. He should do well against the Patriots defense, especially out of the slot.

Betting nugget: The Patriots have been 14-point underdogs only one other time in the last 30 seasons – in 2023 against the Bills, when they lost by six points.

Kahler’s choice: Bills 33, Patriots 17

Moody’s selection: Bills 41, Patriots 13

Walder’s choice: Bills 27, Patriots 17

FPI forecast: BUF, 82.5% (average 13.9 points)