One of the wildest spectacles of bowl season begins this afternoon in the desert as the Miami (OH) RedHawks (8-5) take on the Colorado State Rams (8-4) in the Snoop Dog Arizona Bowl.

This is an intriguing matchup between two programs that have come up just short in their respective conference title races, and my Miami (OH) vs. Colorado State predictions have a Rams program that has been able to seamlessly revamp its personality taking the points fetch.

Learn more in my college football picks for Saturday, December 28th. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET at Arizona Stadium in Tucson, with the game broadcast on the CW.

Miami (OH) vs. Colorado State prediction and best bet

Who will Miami (OH) win against Colorado State?

The surprise comes from the Colorado State Rams (+115). MAC teams generally struggle during bowl season, and a recent misstep by Bowling Green in the 68 Ventures Bowl doesn’t give me confidence that the conference has turned things around.

Meanwhile, the Miami (OH) RedHawks have struggled outside of the conference. They have a 1-3 record in non-MAC games, with their only win coming against a struggling UMass team. We still don’t know what they’ll look like against an opponent like CSU, but I don’t give the MAC the benefit of the doubt.

My best choice
Colorado State +2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

Normally, Norvel is an air raid trainer whose offensives pave the way. He switched to a run-heavy, defense-first style after star wide receiver Tory Horton was sidelined with injury earlier in the year, and it paid off as the Colorado State Rams nearly clinched the Mountain West -Championship.

CSU prefers to keep the ball on the ground (29th in rush rate) and has two good running backs in Avery Morrow (956 yards, 13 touchdowns) and Justin Marshall (662 yards, four touchdowns). The Miami (OH) RedHawks’ defense is not invulnerable, as it has given up 136.8 rushing yards per game this year.

The advanced metrics don’t appeal to Miami’s defense quite as much as one would think given the RedHawks’ reputation on that side of the ball. They rank just 98th in rushing success rate and fail to make any significant impact at the line of scrimmage (103rd in line yards, 126th in stuff rate).

The Rams should be able to establish their style of football by giving Morrow and Marshall a heavy workload throwing a few shots through the air.

Their strong defense (58th in EPA per game, 38th in explosiveness) has a statistical advantage over Miami’s offense (100th in EPA per game, 95th in success rate) and should, given the failures facing their MAC -The opponent has to fight, do well.

Although the RedHawks are happy to breathe air under sixth-year quarterback Brett Gabbert, two of his top receiver targets have left. Reggie Virgil is heading to Texas Tech (and will be joined by starting left tackle Will Jados), while Javon Tracy is taking his talents to Minnesota.

Miami’s offensive identity is reeling without two wideouts who combined for 1,634 yards and 16 touchdowns. If you were an avid viewer of MACtion this year, you know that Virgil and Tracy were two talents that changed the calculus of the game.

Even if the Rams themselves have to do without four starters, they will not feel the losses as badly as the RedHawks. Give me the underdog to cover that short spread.

Miami (OH) vs. Colorado State, Match (SGP)

Colorado State +2.5

Over 40.5

A total of 40.5 is simply too low for bowl season. In a scrimmage-like environment, defenses tend to loosen up while offenses want to take a more in-depth look at what skills players can either achieve one last time or showcase for next season.

CSU has three defensive starters in the transfer portal and was without another player in the regular season finale due to injury. This could give Miami running back Keyon Mozee more leeway than one would normally think in this matchup.

On the other hand, Miami’s defense excels at limiting big plays (third in explosiveness), but that’s not CSU’s thing anyway. The Rams have a slight edge in success rate (83rd in offense to Miami’s 87th in defense), and that can’t be explained by this low total.

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Miami (OH) vs. Colorado State odds

Live odds for Miami (OH) vs. Colorado State

Opening odds for Miami (OH) vs. Colorado State

• Miami (OH) vs. Colorado State Spread: Colorado State +1.5
• Miami (OH) vs. Colorado State Moneyline: Miami (OH) -120, Colorado State +100
• Miami (OH) vs. Colorado State Over/Under: 43.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Miami (OH) vs. Colorado State spread and over/under analysis

• Colorado State is 7-4-1 ATS this year, while Miami finished the regular season 6-7 ATS.
• The Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games.
• This game could be off to a slow start: Miami is 4-9 O/U in the first half in the last 13 games while Colorado State is 4-8 O/U in the first half in the last 12 games.
• 57% of Covers Consensus users support Colorado State in terms of spread, while 63% take the majority.

Things worth knowing about the Miami (OH) vs. Colorado State betting trend

Miami is 1-3 ATS in non-conference games this season. Find more college football betting trends for Miami (OH) vs. Colorado State.

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