Miami postseason scenarios

The Miami Dolphins weren’t thrilledRed is a serious playoff contender after starting the season with a 2-6 record.

However, the Dolphins are 5-2 in their last seven games, making them a potential wild card threat in the AFC. Their path to the postseason isn’t easy, but if Mike McDaniel’s team can keep winning, they may have a chance to make the playoffs for the third straight year.

Miami is not in control of its own destiny. To reach the 2025 NFL playoffs, it must win and get help from multiple teams.

How can the Dolphins make the playoffs? Here’s a look at their postseason chances in the final weeks of the 2024 NFL season.

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Dolphins playoff chances

According to The Athletic’s playoff prediction model, the Dolphins have a 16% chance of making the playoffs. That’s the second-fewest chance among the four AFC teams vying for the conference’s seventh spot.

Dolphins playoff odds

The Athletic’s model is much more optimistic about the Dolphins’ chances than DraftKings Sportsbook. DraftKings lists Miami at +1600 odds for the postseason. This gives the Dolphins an implied probability of just 5.88% of qualifying for the playoffs.

What needs to happen for the Dolphins to make the playoffs?

The Dolphins need three things to make the playoffs. They are as follows:

This is the Dolphins’ only path to a postseason appearance.

Dolphins remaining schedule

The Dolphins don’t have a particularly difficult end to the 2024 NFL season. They play the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets in the final two weeks of the season. This means Miami has the sixth easiest schedule in the entire league on Sunday, December 29th.

However, both of Miami’s games will take place in outdoor stadiums. If the weather is bad, this could affect the team’s chances of winning.

The Cleveland team is also expected to be without Tua Tagovailoa due to a hip injury. Therefore, the team needs backup quarterback Tyler Huntley to lead them to a win to stay alive in the NFL playoff race.

Below is a complete look at Miami’s schedule:

Broncos remaining schedule

The other good news for the Dolphins is that the Broncos have a difficult matchup to conclude the 2024 NFL season. Denver is scheduled to host Kansas City in Week 18. The Chiefs have a 15-1 record and beat the Broncos in a hard-fought 16-14 matchup in Week 10.

However, it is not clear whether the Chiefs – who secured the AFC’s No. 1 seed with a 29-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas – will play with their starters in the final week. If not, that could make Denver’s path to a decisive playoff win a little easier.

Therefore, Miami’s postseason fate could ultimately rest in the hands of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.

Below is a look at Denver’s schedule:

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Colts remaining schedule

This is where things get problematic for the Dolphins. They need the Colts to lose, but Indianapolis has the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL.

The Colts play the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars, who have a combined record of 5-25, in the final two weeks of the season. They will be the favorites in both games, although they will have to use backup quarterback Joe Flacco against the Giants and Anthony Richardson (back, foot) is injured.

So unless the Colts lose to one of the worst teams in the NFL, the Dolphins won’t make the postseason even if the Broncos stumble.

Below is a complete overview of Indianapolis’ schedule:

Potential playoff opponents for the Dolphins

The Dolphins can only be the No. 7 seed in the NFL playoffs if everything goes well for them. This leaves Miami with only two possible opponents. They are as follows:

The Bills have control of the No. 2 seed in the postseason and can wrap it up with a win in Week 17 against the Jets. The Dolphins are 0-2 against the Bills this season, losing 61-37 overall.

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AFC playoff picture week 17

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winner, No. 1 seed)*
Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East winner)*
Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*
Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South winner)*
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, Wild Card No. 1)*
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, Wild Card No. 2)*
Denver Broncos (9-7, Wild Card No. 3)

On the hunt: Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), Indianapolis Colts (7-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8).

NFC

Detroit Lions (13-2, NFC North leaders)*
Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, NFC East leaders)*
Los Angeles Rams (10-6, NFC West leaders)
Atlanta Falcons (8-7, NFC South leaders)
Minnesota Vikings (13-2, Wild Card No. 1)*
Green Bay Packers (11-4, Wild Card No. 2)
Washington Commanders (10-5, Wildcard No. 3)

On the hunt: Seattle Seahawks (8-7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)

An asterisk

denotes teams that have secured a spot in the playoffs. Teams that won division titles are marked accordingly.

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