It’s a travesty that the Egg Bowl won’t be played on Thanksgiving this year. Instead, the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Mississippi Rebels will face off this afternoon.

After a blowout loss to Florida last week, the Rebels’ CFP chances are all but nonexistent, and my Mississippi State vs. Mississippi predictions have the Bulldogs valuable as big underdogs.

Check out my college football picks for November 29th below. Kick-off is scheduled to take place at Vaught Hemingway Stadium in Oxford and the game will be broadcast on ABC.

Prediction and best bet for Mississippi State vs. Mississippi

Who will Mississippi State win against Mississippi?

This year’s edition of the Egg Bowl has almost four touchdowns… so, yes, I’m picking Mississippi to win the game.

The Rebels are clearly on a different level in terms of talent and their ranking in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive success rates.

But as I’ll explain in a moment, Mississippi’s motives are certainly questionable, with the College Football Playoff seemingly out of reach and a horde of transfers who might not care that much about this rivalry.

Even if Mississippi wins, don’t be shocked if the game turns out to be closer than expected.

My best choice
Mississippi State +26.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
Despite a few losses and the SEC’s tumultuous state this season, the Mississippi Rebels’ path to the College Football Playoff was clear: Beat Florida and win the Egg Bowl to end the season, and they’ll be in 12th place. man field.

However, it looked like the Swamps had given the Rebels heat stroke as they surrendered in a stunning loss to the Gators. And suddenly Mississippi is on the outside looking in at the CFP, and a postseason berth seems unlikely.

That makes me wonder how motivated the Rebels will be for this matchup against the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Now Mississippi is almost a four-touchdown favorite for good reason: The Rebels have more talent, a dynamic QB in Jaxson Dart and one of the best defenses in the country.

Meanwhile, Mississippi State can’t stop anyone and only has one FBS win against UMass this season. Although they haven’t picked up a significant conference win, the Bulldogs have played better in SEC play and are 5-2 against the spread – including 4-0 ATS when scoring 21 points or more.

Interestingly, Mississippi State started this ATS run with freshman QB Michael Van Buren Jr. taking over for the injured Blake Sharpen. Van Buren has shown his potential, throwing for 1,362 yards with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions in his seven starts.

In fact, the Bulldogs rank a respectable 59th in offensive success rate in this game, and Van Buren is a big reason why.

Also, don’t overlook the fact that Mississippi is full of transfers, meaning this rivalry game may not have the same hate as in years past.

There is only one team motivated to play in this game and that is the Bulldogs. A win here would mean a lot to the program. Do I think they understand? I’m not sure, but give me Mississippi State to cover another big spread.

Mississippi State vs. Mississippi Same-Game Parlay (SGP)

Michael Van Buren Jr. is clearly still growing as a quarterback. Still, he has put up some impressive performances this season – including throwing for 306 yards against UGA, 242 against Texas A&M and 309 against Arkansas. Teams that go from good to great defense.

I can think of a lot of game scripts where Van Buren has to be careful.

When the Bulldogs face off, that means he’s moving the ball. And if not, he has to throw the ball. In a game where the Bulldogs should be a lot more motivated than the Rebels, I like Van Buren going over that pass yard prop.

Just because I like Mississippi State keeping this number within the big number doesn’t mean Mississippi won’t move the chains – especially through the air. The Bulldogs rank 133rd in dropback success rate.

So I’m taking a look at one of the Rebels’ few homegrown talents: wide receiver Cayden Lee. The sophomore is on pace for 790 yards rushing this season, with the majority of that coming in the last five games, rushing for more than 81 yards in four of his last five games.

Since Lee is one of the few Rebels players who truly cares about the rivalry, we’re taking him to get more than 80 yards on Friday night.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Mississippi State vs. Mississippi odds

Live odds for Mississippi State vs. Mississippi

Mississippi State vs. Mississippi opening odds

• Mississippi State vs. Mississippi Spread: Mississippi -26
• Money line Mississippi State vs. Mississippi: Mississippi State +1,550, Mississippi -3,000
• Mississippi State vs. Mississippi Over/Under: 61.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Mississippi State-Mississippi distribution and over/under analysis

• Mississippi opened this SEC rivalry as a 26-point home favorite, and the Rebels are starting to inch ahead, moving to 26.5 points as of Thursday morning.
• There hasn’t been a spread greater than two touchdowns in the Egg Bowl since 2011.
• The total is 61.5 and not much has happened yet.
• When it comes to overall numbers, these teams are on the opposite end of the spectrum. Mississippi State’s improving offense and non-existent defense have made the Bulldogs a great over bet at 8-3 O/U. Meanwhile, Mississippi’s elite defense and inconsistent offense have kept the Rebels at 2-9 O/U.
• 62% of Covers Consensus users support Mississippi State on the spreads, while 51% take the overs.

What you need to know about the “Mississippi State vs. Mississippi” betting trend.

The underdog has covered the spread in five of the last eight Egg Bowls. Find more college football betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Mississippi.

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