Imagine the Toronto Blue Jays keeping first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. long-term. Trading shortstop Bo Bichette. Signing free agent third baseman Alex Bregman.

None of these outcomes are particularly likely. However, according to sources briefed on the Jays’ discussions, everyone is in play.

The Jays are negotiating a long-term extension with Guerrero that would exempt him from his final year of arbitration and free agency. They arouse interest in Bichette, who is also starting his year of travel. And they’re at least on the edge of the Bregman sweepstakes, although other free agents seem to be a better fit for now.

There is still a perception in the industry that the Jays are desperate to achieve something big. Club president Mark Shapiro is in the final year of his contract. General manager Ross Atkins only has two years left. And the team is coming off a season in which it finished last in the AL East and won just 74 games.

Signing Guerrero would be an important step in restoring the franchise’s credibility. But after Juan Soto’s record-breaking 15-year, $765 million free agent contract, the price will be high. Guerrero is expected to make nearly $30 million in his final year of arbitration and would hit the market in his age-27 season. That’s just a year older than Soto being a free agent.

Soto is a bigger talent than Guerrero, with a more consistent track record. But Guerrero is also an offensive force, leading the majors in OPS+ at 67 percent above league average in 2021 and ranking sixth at 66 percent above in 2024. In the two years in between, which by his standards were years ago, he was at 33 percent and 16 percent above.

First basemen aren’t paid the way they used to, making free agency difficult for the top two players at the position on this year’s market, Pete Alonso, 30, and Christian Walker, who turns 34 on March 28. Miguel Cabrera’s eight-year, $248 million extension remains the largest contract for now (Bryce Harper signed his 13-year, $330 million free agent contract as a right fielder). Cabrera’s contract extended from the age-33 season to the age-40 season.

Guerrero will be six years younger when his next contract begins. He’s a team leader, an improved defender, a player who was born in Montreal and claims to love Toronto. And the Soto contract, awarded to an outfielder not exactly considered a talented defender, raises the bar for elite hitters. Newly signed Kyle Tucker from the Chicago Cubs, who is two years older than Guerrero and a superior all-round talent, will also benefit from this. He will also be free at the end of the season.

So what could Guerrero want? A $400 million deal would barely be half of Sotos. A deal in the $500-$600 million range is probably more realistic, as exaggerated as it may sound to the average fan. Keep in mind that the Jays would have to pay a premium if they prevented Guerrero from testing the market. And if they lose him, their already angry fan base could rebel.

Another thing is Bichette, who turns 27 on March 5th. He’s coming off his worst offensive season by far, with an OPS+ below league average of 29 percent while missing nearly three months with a right calf strain. The Jays don’t seem nearly as interested in signing him as Guerrero. And circumstances have changed since Atkins told MLB Network’s Jon Morosi in November that his response to trade inquiries about Bichette was “a simple no.”

Eight days ago, the Jays signed Andrés Giménez, a Platinum Glove winner at second base, as a possible replacement for Bichette. Gimenez’s return to shortstop, his original position, seemed more likely in 2026 than in 2025, the final year Bichette controls the club. But trading Bichette this offseason would make sense, even if the Jays sell poorly. If the Jays lose him as a free agent and go over the luxury tax threshold of $241 million – within $13 million, according to Fangraphs – they would only receive a pick past the fourth round in compensation.

Still, the Jays don’t seem to be buying Bichette. Executives from three rival clubs, who were granted anonymity to protect their candor, said the Jays were open to a move, but only at a high price. Good luck, because Bichette has his down year behind him, is under the club’s control for just one more season, and is expected to make $16.5 million in 2025. He also ended the season with a broken finger that required surgery but is expected to be fit to begin spring training.

As currently structured, the Jays would start with Giménez at second, Bichette at third and Ernie Clement at third. If they traded Bichette and signed Bregman, they could go with Bregman at third, Giménez at second and Clement at second. But there are numerous other options. The Jays could sign free agent right-hander Corbin Burnes and trade either Chris Bassitt or Kevin Gausman. They could also sign Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernández to their outfield, one of their biggest areas of need.

Signing Guerrero should be a priority. Signing Guerrero would be a start.

There are initially plenty of options for the Yankees

The Yankees increasingly appear to be opting for a cheaper option at first base than Alonso or Walker, according to sources briefed on their targets.

Free agent alternatives include Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, Justin Turner, Anthony Rizzo and Josh Bell. The Yankees could also trade for Josh Naylor from the Cleveland Guardians ($12 million in the club’s final year of control); Nathaniel Lowe of the Texas Rangers ($10.7 million, one year remaining in arbitration); or Yandy Díaz of the Tampa Bay Rays ($10 million with a $12 million club option for 2026).

One of the fewer free agents could likely be signed for a comparable or lower salary – and without the loss of prospects that a move would require, or the loss of two draft choices that would result from the addition of Alonso or Walker.

The Yankees sacrificed their second- and fifth-highest picks and $1 million in international bonus pool space to sign free-agent left-hander Max Fried. Signing Alonso or Walker would come at an additional cost to their third- and sixth-highest selections, effectively blowing up their 2025 draft.

As per MLB Trade Rumors, the last time the Yankees signed multiple free agents who turned down qualifying offers was in 2013-14, when they added Carlos Beltrán, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann.

The sheer number of first basemen available in free agency and trades paves the way for the Yankees to address the position one way or another and play Cody Bellinger in center field or left. The Yankees would still need another infielder, but if they moved Jazz Chisholm Jr. to second, Oswaldo Cabrera and DJ LeMahieu would be internal options at third.

The situation remains unclear. The Yankees could also add an outfielder and play Bellinger at first, or leave open the possibility for Ben Rice to win the first base job in spring training.

Next up for the A’s: Gio

According to sources briefed on the discussions, the Athletics have agreed to terms with free agent third baseman Gio Urshela, pending a physical exam.

Urshela, 33, was signed by the Detroit Tigers in February last offseason, and the team released him on August 18. The Atlanta Braves signed him two days later, and his .711 OPS with them was almost 100 points higher than with the Tigers the rest of the time.

The A’s would be Urshela’s sixth team in the last five seasons. He remains an above-average defender at number three.

(Top photo of Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: John Fisher / Getty Images)