My first bet: Early CFP first round and NFL Week 15 picks

My first bet: Early CFP first round and NFL Week 15 picks

The first round of the 12-team College Football Playoff was released on Sunday. Four teams earned byes in the first round and a place in the quarterfinals, while the others will take their place in the first round on December 20th and 21st. Hosting the Texas Longhorns, who narrowly lost the SEC Championship to the Georgia Bulldogs, the ACC champion Clemson Tigers travel to Austin on December 21st, with the winner securing a spot in the Chick-fil-a Peach Bowl against Arizona State . The Longhorns entered the game as 10.5-point favorites and since then the line has risen half a point to -11.

NFL Week 15 begins with the Los Angeles Rams (7-6), fresh off a win over the Buffalo Bills, traveling to Levi’s Stadium to take on the San Francisco 49ers (6-7) on Thursday. Sunday’s slate includes 13 games, with all eyes on the crucial AFC-NFC matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) and the Philadelphia Eagles (11-2). The Green Bay Packers face the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night in prime time and Week 15 ends with a doubleheader on “Monday Night Football” as the Chicago Bears visit the Minnesota Vikings (8 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+) and the Atlanta Falcons Take on the Las Vegas Raiders.

Our team takes an early look at the odds to find value before the lines move later in the week.

All odds are correct as of the time stamp. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.


First bets for the first round of the CFP

Fortenbaugh: Texas Longhorns-Clemson Tigers UNDER 51.5 points

Don’t let Clemson’s 34-point outburst against SMU in the ACC Championship game fool you. That performance played a big role in this total opening at 54.5 before the early money hit the under. What you want to focus on is the fact that Clemson only had 14 points against a good South Carolina defense and only three points in the season opener against Georgia. The Longhorns’ defense can take on the opposing quarterback, as evidenced by the fact that they knocked Carson Beck out of the SEC Championship game.

Maldonado: Clemson (+11) vs. Texas

The 11-point spread seems to underestimate Dabo Swinney’s talented Clemson squad. Quarterback Cade Klubnik, who has proven himself against top-notch defenses, is key to the Tigers’ competitiveness. Although Texas’ defense is strong, it has not seen a passing attack as formidable as Clemson’s this season. Klubnik’s ability to extend plays and make accurate throws on the run will provide a challenge for the Longhorns’ secondary. The spread seems to overlook Clemson’s championship experience and Klubnik’s talent for improving his game in crucial moments and using his mobility when needed. It is a realistic possibility for the Tigers to cover this range.


Early betting for NFL Week 15

Fortenbaugh: Pittsburgh Steelers-Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 43.5 points

Last week: Los Angeles Chargers-Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 43.5 points. Total closed 43.5. The Chiefs won 19-17.

The number 43 is a relatively important number when it comes to betting on NFL totals. So let’s get ahead of the game with a game under 43.5 potential subs. Rock Fight is the main focus in this game, thanks to a Philadelphia team that ranks 21st in pace and first in rushing attempts per game and a Pittsburgh team that ranks 24th in pace. ranked second in rushing attempts per game. Add to that the cold weather, an ailing George Pickens and an Eagles offense that is struggling to throw the football, and you have a great recipe for a low-scoring affair.

Seth Walder: Steelers (+5) at Eagles

Pardon the sentiment, but the fact that the Eagles’ wide receivers were so critical of the passing game after Philadelphia’s win over the Panthers caught my attention. On the one hand, it may just be realistic self-criticism. Then again, perhaps it’s a sign that there are more problems than their 11-2 record suggests – and the passing game was poor on Sunday. Plus, FPI is leaning towards the Steelers anyway, making Philadelphia the favorite with 4.1 points.

Ben Solak: Carolina Panthers (-1.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (-110)

Last week: Brock Bowers (+1200) is named Offensive Rookie of the Year. Bowers is now +900.

The Panthers are the favorites on Sunday – I repeat, the Panthers are the favorites. If they finish as favorites against the Cowboys, it would be the first game in which Carolina is considered the favorite in the last 34 contests. And I’ll take it. The Panthers have an excellent running game that has served the Cowboys defense well all season. Bryce Young has gone from a total liability to an enjoyable playmaker, and as long as defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero keeps the Cooper rush going – something he’s done well in recent weeks – the Panthers’ defense should get enough stops to win this game by a significant margin win goal.

Andre Snellings: Cleveland Browns +6.5 over Kansas City Chiefs

Last week: Chargers (+3.5) over Chiefs. Line closed chargers +5.5. The Chiefs won 19-17.

When it comes to late game situations, this game may have the most reliable and unreliable quarterbacks in the NFL. The Chiefs make a living by winning close games, in large part because Patrick Mahomes never takes long and almost always comes through. Jameis Winston, on the other hand, will likely throw the late-game interception that seals the deal for his opponent. However, the Browns are usually competitive against strong competition, especially at home. The Browns have gone 2-1 in their last three home games against playoff competition, defeating the Steelers and Ravens and losing to the Chargers. The Chiefs have now won five straight games by a margin of more than three points, and their average points margin over their last eight games is just +2.9 points. With the Browns scoring so many points at home, I’ll be rooting for them to keep the game close enough to make up the difference.

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