The NBA Cup Final is here, and it went exactly as planned. The top seed in the West, Oklahoma City, will face the top seed in the East, Milwaukee. That’s fitting because these are also two of the hottest teams in the NBA.

The Thunder have the best record in the Western Conference and their +12.1 point margin is the best in the NBA. Meanwhile, the Bucks got off to a slow start this season but have rebounded significantly, winning 10 of their last 12 games.

Here are the interesting betting aspects for tonight’s big match.

Note: These NBA Cup Final stats do not count in ESPN Fantasy leagues.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 32.5 points (-105)

Gilgeous-Alexander averaged over 30 PPG for the third straight season and increased his scoring to 32.8 PPG in the last month (12 games). He was similarly strong in the NBA Cup, scoring 32.2 PPG with a 39-point effort against Dallas in those six games. Gilgeous-Alexander faces a team as hot as the Bucks, and Milwaukee struggled to defend opposing point guards, giving him the third-highest scoring average in the NBA.

Bobby Portis over 7.5 rebounds (-120)

Despite being one of the strongest defenses in the NBA, the Thunder tend to play a smaller lineup with a center and multiple wings. One area they leave to their opponents is rebounding. OKC allows the fourth-most rebounds to opposing centers (16.0 RPG). Portis has been particularly active on the boards lately, averaging 10.5 RPG in his last four games, with at least nine boards in three of those contests.

Thunder -5.5 over Bucks (-105)

The Bucks are playing excellent basketball right now, but the Thunder have been playing at a high level all season and have even been the hotter team lately. While Milwaukee has a +5.5 point margin in its 12-game, 10-win stretch, OKC has also won nine of its last 10 games by a +13.1 point margin. The Bucks are strong, with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard as a one-two punch that can take on any duo, but the Thunder’s combination of stifling defense and excellent long-range shooting from almost any position makes them difficult to beat.

Predictions and injury reports

Basketball Power Index from ESPN Analytics. Infringement aggregation from Rotowire.com. Odds according to ESPN BET

Players in italics are available in most ESPN leagues

Milwaukee Bucks at Oklahoma City Thunder
8:30 p.m. ET on ABC

Line: Dollar +4.5 (-105) | Thunder -4.5 (-115)
Money line: Dollars +170 | Thunder -200
In total: 214.5 (-115 O, -105 U)
BPI forecast: Thunder by 8.4, direct increase of 75%, 225.7 total points.

Injury report:
Bucks: Damian Lillard, (GTD – Calf); Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD – knee); Khris Middleton, (GTD – Illness); Liam Robbins, (GTD – Ankle)
Thunder: Chet Holmgren, (OUT – Hip); Nikola Topic, (OUT – Knee); Jaylin Williams, (OUT – Hamstring); Ousmane Dieng, (OUT – Fingers)