Vegas, baby!

For the second time this calendar year, the NBA has drawn the sports world’s attention to Las Vegas. After introducing this rookie class during the NBA 2K25 Summer League in July, this time they return to crown the winner of the Emirates NBA Cup. The final four are set: The top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks face the third-seeded Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Bracket and the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder face the second-seeded Houston Rockets for supremacy in the West.

According to ESPN BET, the Thunder are the clear favorites to win the Emirates NBA Cup at +125, followed by the Bucks (+240), Rockets (+450) and Hawks (+525). The NBA Cup Tournament MVP favorites closely follow the team standings, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+115) the favorite, followed by the best players from each of the subsequent teams (Giannis Antetokounmpo +320, Alperen Sengun +600 and Trae Young +). 850).

While I agree with ESPN BET that the Thunder are the most likely future champion, with SGA as the associated MVP, it makes little sense (or fun) to come out on top. There are many ways this can play out. So let’s look at some of the intriguing aspects that could add value.

Atlanta Hawks +3.5 over Milwaukee Bucks (-105); Trae Young becomes Cup MVP (+850)

The Hawks enter the semifinals as hot as any of the other three finalists and have won seven of their last eight games, including two victories over the Eastern Conference-leading Cleveland Cavaliers and a 15-point win over the Bucks in Milwaukee. A hot team is a dangerous team in a one-and-done tournament, as we’ve learned from decades of March Madness.

Another truism I learned from March Madness is how big of an impact a dominant lead guard can have on a tournament run, and Young is as explosive as they come. He leads the NBA with 12.2 assists per game and is the epicenter of everything the Hawks do offensively. Young has posted five 30-10 double-doubles this season, including an incredible 31-point, 20-assist performance last week against the Lakers. Young’s MVP chances are longer than the Hawks’ championship chances, but if they win, he is clearly the Hawks player with the highest probability of earning MVP honors.

Houston Rockets +5.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder (-106)

The Thunder and Rockets rank second and third in the NBA in fewest points allowed, and both showed off their defense in the quarterfinals. The Thunder held the Mavericks to 104 points and the Rockets limited the Warriors to just 90. A defensive-focused game is more likely to be close than an offensive explosion, so the Rockets scoring as many points in the matchup could be their advantage.

These two teams have already played twice this season and won each time on their home pitch. Since this game is taking place at a neutral site, the Rockets have a good chance of keeping the game at least close enough for the points to matter.

Damian Lillard becomes Cup MVP (+1800)

The Bucks have the second-least odds to win the Cup, and Antetokounmpo is playing at such a high level that he is a contender to win NBA MVP. But if the Bucks were to win the Emirates NBA Cup, it would likely be because Lillard was also playing at a high level. He has the explosive point-scoring ability, late-game clutch gene and penchant for hitting the big stage in lady time, especially over a two-game stretch, to move into MVP contention catapult.

Lillard has scored 25 or more points in seven of his last eight games, but his best two-game combination of the season came back-to-back against the Cavaliers. Both games came down to the wire, with Lillard averaging 38.5 PPG, 8.0 APG and 7.5 3PG. If he plays at this level and the Bucks win the Cup, his chances of challenging Giannis for the MVP award would be much better than the gulf difference in their MVP odds (+1800 vs. +320).