The NFC South is still up for grabs for the third straight season late in the season, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a good chance of winning their fourth straight title.

The Buccaneers have benefited from a weak division the last two years (9-8 winner in 2023, 8-9 winner in 2022). Even though Tampa Bay has won four straight titles, the Atlanta Falcons are lurking one game behind. On Tuesday, Atlanta made a big move by trading quarterback Kirk Cousins ​​for rookie Michael Penix Jr. The New Orleans Saints have a slim chance of winning the division – even with a losing record – and the Carolina Panthers can still play spoiler with two division rivals on their final schedule.

Here’s a look at how the division race may unfold in the final weeks of the 2024 season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6)

Chance of winning the division: 79.4%
Chance of the playoffs: 81.6%
Last games: at Dallas Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints
Remaining power rankings: 27

Road to the playoffs: Since their Week 14 win over the Las Vegas Raiders, the Bucs have been sole owners of first place in the division and are in control of their own destiny. They need to keep winning to maintain a one-game lead over the Falcons due to the head-to-head tiebreaker in Atlanta. Their Week 15 game against the Los Angeles Chargers was their toughest remaining opponent, and they earned a fourth straight win, 40-17.

Biggest hurdles: They lacked consistency in defense, but they have found a winning formula despite mounting injuries. Although none of their remaining three opponents have a winning record, the Panthers took them to overtime in Week 13. They also had problems with ball losses. Tampa Bay’s 20 turnovers are the seventh-most in the league. – Jenna Laine

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Atlanta Falcons (7-7)

Chance of winning the division: 20.7%
Chance of the playoffs: 29.0%
Last games: vs. New York Giants, Washington Commanders, vs. Panthers
Remaining power rankings: Draw for 31

Road to the playoffs: The Falcons are one game behind the Bucs but have won the season series. So if these two teams have the same record at the top of the NFC South, Atlanta would win the division via tiebreaker as long as the Falcons are not tied with the Saints. The Falcons have to win 3-0 or 2-1 the rest of the game and hope the Bucs lose once or twice. Atlanta is better positioned for this by moving from the struggling Cousins ​​to Penix. A wildcard spot is possible, but four teams not leading the division have a better record.

Biggest hurdles: Winning the two remaining home games against the Giants and Panthers, who have a combined five wins, is a must. The away game against the Commanders (9-5) – who are also fighting for a wildcard spot – is a little more precarious, but not completely impossible. A win and a 10-7 record would be a successful season for the Falcons. – Marc Raimondi

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New Orleans Saints (5-9)

Chance of winning the division: 0%
Chance of the playoffs: 0%
Last games: at the Green Bay Packers, against Raiders, at the Buccaneers
Remaining power rankings: 12

Road to the playoffs: The Saints really needed the Raiders to pull off an upset against the Falcons, because now both the Falcons and Buccaneers had to lose and they had to win to win the NFC South – their only path to the playoffs at this point. That’s pretty unlikely considering how well the Buccaneers are playing. Even though it was close last week, the Saints’ loss to the Panthers will likely come back to haunt them.

Biggest hurdles: The saints do not control their fate. But even if that weren’t a factor, New Orleans will be at a significant disadvantage. The team’s next game is in Green Bay, without starting quarterback Derek Carr and possibly without starting running back Alvin Kamara, who has a groin injury. Even though rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler played well for a half last week, that’s still a difficult task for a young backup. — Katherine Terrell

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Carolina Panthers (3-11)

Chance of winning the division: 0%
Chance of the playoffs: 0%
Last games: against the Arizona Cardinals, at the Buccaneers, at the Falcons
Remaining power rankings: 13

How they can play spoiler against other NFC South teams: By doing what they did in recent losses to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Bucs and the Philadelphia Eagles: playing well enough to win, but getting over the hump and getting the win. There is no plan to prepare for the No. 1 draft pick. It’s about establishing a winning culture for 2025. The Bucs got a taste of that in Week 13 when an error in overtime was the deciding factor in the Bucs’ win. They also got a glimpse of how dangerous Bryce Young (298 yards, two total touchdowns) can be.

What is still to be achieved: Solidify whether Young can be the franchise quarterback if he isn’t already so the front office can focus on improving the defense in the offseason. The defense’s inability to stop the run marked the team’s seventh straight loss. Games against Tampa Bay and Atlanta are perfect examples. The Bucs had 238 yards rushing in their overtime win at Charlotte and the Falcons had a season-high 198 yards in Week 6. — David Newton