An exciting Week 12 ends with an important AFC matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers on “Monday Night Football” (8:30 ET, ESPN).

The duel will be the first meeting between coaches Jim and John Harbaugh since Super Bowl XLVII in 2013. John Harbaugh’s Chargers are off to a red-hot start to Week 12, winning four straight games and coming off a hard-fought victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in prime time.

Meanwhile, the Ravens’ two-game winning streak ended in Week 11 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but are still -155 on ESPN BET to win the division after the Browns upset Pittsburgh on Thursday night. The Ravens entered the game as 2.5-point favorites with a total of 47.5.

While the race for the AFC West appears to be over with the Kansas City Chiefs at the top of the odds table, the Chargers are still fighting for a playoff spot. Monday night’s game could play a pivotal role as both Los Angeles (7-2) and Baltimore (7-3) fight for playoff position.

Odds are current as of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

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Game lines

Spread: Ravens (-2.5)
Money line: Ravens (-140), Warhorses (+120)
Over/under: 50.5 points (above -115/below -105)

Distribution in the first half: Ravens -0.5 (-110), Warhorses +0.5 (-110)
First half moneyline: Ravens (-140), Warhorses (+110)
Ravens total points: 26.5 (above -110/below -120)
Chargers Overall Score: 23.5 (above -125/below -105)

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The props

Passing by

Justin Herbert’s total passing yards: 249.5 (above -135/below +105)
Herbert total passing TDs: 1.5 (above -125/below -105)
Lamar Jackson total passing yards: 249.5 (above +115/below -145)
Jackson’s total passing TDs: 1.5 (above -120/below -110)

Rush

Derrick Henry Total Rushing Yards: 79.5 (above -135/below +105)
JK Dobbins Total Rushing Yards: 44.5 (above -130/below even)
Jackson’s total rushing yards: 44.5 (above -110/below -120)
Gus Edwards total rushing yards: 24.5 (above even/below -130)
Herbert total rushing yards: 19.5 (above -110/below -120)

Reception

Ladd McConkey receiving total yards: 69.5 (above -135/below +105)
Zay Flowers receiving total yards: 59.5 (above -115/below -115)
Quentin Johnston total receiving yards: 49.5 (above -105/below -125)
Rashod Bateman’s total receiving yards: 39.5 (above -105/below -125)
Will Dissly receives total yards: 44.5 (above -105/below -125)
Mark Andrews total receiving yards: 29.5 (above -130/below even)
Isaiah Likely Total Receiving Yards: 24.5 (above -130/below even)
Dobbins total receiving yards: 14.5 (above -110/below -120)

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Eric Moody’s tips

Best choice: Chargers +2.5

The Ravens’ defense struggled, particularly against the pass, managing just 16 points in Week 11 against the Steelers. Meanwhile, the Chargers’ defense is allowing the fewest points per game. The Ravens are 6-3 ATS, but the Chargers’ offense is running. They have scored 26+ points in four straight games, powered by Justin Herbert and his passing game. Los Angeles is also 4-0-1 ATS in its last five home games. Additionally, the Ravens have lost four of their last five games in November as away favorites.

Best Bet: Justin Herbert OVER 249.5 yards (-135)

This prop immediately caught my attention. Herbert has cleared that line in four of his last five games, averaging 274.2 yards. Here’s the kicker: No defense gives up more passing yards per game than the Ravens’. With playmakers like Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston, Herbert has everything he needs to take advantage of this weak secondary.

Best Bet: Will Dissly OVER 4.5 receptions (+105)

Dissly was the go-to guy in the Chargers’ tight end rotation and ran more routes than Tucker Fisk and Stone Smartt. He has reached that mark in three of his last five games and has shown consistency when given the opportunity. Baltimore’s secondary struggles are no secret – they are giving tight ends the ninth-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards per game this season. The Ravens’ defense has relied on two-high coverage on about 43% of its snaps this season, leaving a lot of space underneath – exactly where Dissly thrives. He caught 16 of 19 targets for 143 yards against two-high coverage this season, the most receptions on the Chargers in that situation. This matchup perfectly prepares him to capitalize on short to medium targets.

Best Bet: Ladd McConkey OVER 5.5 receptions (+105)

Working primarily out of the slot, McConkey has emerged as Herbert’s top target, leading the Chargers with 66 targets and 46 receptions. The Ravens’ defense allows the fifth-most receptions per game to wide receivers, and McConkey’s precise route running makes him the perfect candidate to exploit Baltimore’s defense. He has caught 12 of 20 targets for 152 yards against two-high coverage this season, which is the most yards the Chargers have in that situation. McConkey is well-positioned to clear this line in such a favorable matchup.

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Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• The Chargers are 8-2 ATS this season, tied for the best record in the NFL this season (Steelers, Lions). They have played four straight games, their longest streak since 2020-2021 (five).

• The Chargers are 5-0 ATS at home this season. It is her longest home cover streak since 2007 (six in a row). A cover this week would equal their longest home ATS winning streak in the Super Bowl era (2007, 1992, 1971-1972).

• In Ravens games this season, the over rate is 9:2, the highest over rate in the NFL.

• Lamar Jackson is 16-8 ATS in primetime games in his career (19-5 consecutive), including 9-4 ATS/SU on the road. Justin Herbert is 11-7 ATS in primetime games.

• Lamar Jackson is 28-14-2 ATS on the road in his career, including 23-8-1 ATS when he didn’t score at least seven points.

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