Week 14 of the NFL season begins with a big division game between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football from Ford Field.

The Lions (11-1, 9-3 ATS) are on a 10-game winning streak, while the Packers (9-3, 6-6 ATS) have won three straight games. Detroit, the current Super Bowl favorite (+250 on ESPN BET), sits atop the NFC North, followed by the Minnesota Vikings and Packers at 10-2. With a win on Thursday, the Lions can secure a spot in the playoffs.

The Packers can secure the over of their season win total (9.5) with a win. The Lions matched their overall score (10.5) with a Thanksgiving Day win over the Chicago Bears.

Thursday’s kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.

Odds are current as of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

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Game lines

Spread: Lions -3.5 (Open Lions -3.5)
Money line: Lions -185, Packers +155
Over/Under: 51.5 (open 51.5)

Distribution in the first half: Lions -2.5 (-115), Packers +2.5 (-105)
Packers total points: 23.5 (above -115/below -115)
Lions total points: 27.5 (above -105/below -125)

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The props

Passing by

Jared Goff’s total passing yards: 249.5 (above -105/below -125)
Goff’s total passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +105/Under -132)
Jordan Love total passing yards: 249.5 (above -120/below -110)
I absolutely love passing TDs: 1.5 (above -140/below +110)

Rush

Jahmyr Gibbs total rushing yards: 59.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
David Montgomery’s total rushing yards: 59.5 (above -110/below -120)
Josh Jacobs total rushing yards: 69.5 (Over +110/Under -120)

Reception

Amon-Ra St. Brown total receiving yards: 69.5 (above -115/below -115)
Jameson Williams total receiving yards: 49.5 (above -110/below -120)
Jayden Reed receiving total yards: 49.5 (Over -Even/Under -130)
Christian Watson total receiving yards: 39.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Sam LaPorta total receiving yards: 34.5 (above -120/below -110)
Tucker Kraft total receiving yards: 34.5 (above -120/below -110)

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Anita Marks’ pick: Packers +3.5

This will be the second meeting between these NFC North rivals this season. The Lions won the first game 24-14 at Lambeau Field. In that Week 9 matchup, the Packers outgained the Lions by 411 yards to 261, but were limited to one touchdown and two field goals on four trips to the red zone. Jordan Love had an interception for a touchdown and the Packers committed 10 penalties for 67 yards.

Since Green Bay’s bye the following week, the Packers have won three straight. Love looked particularly good on Thanksgiving night against the Miami Dolphins. The Lions’ defense has been hit by injuries, particularly along the defensive line. Meanwhile, Green Bay expects cornerback Jaire Alexander to be back on defense.

I’ll be rooting for the Packers to keep this game close.

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Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• Dan Campbell has the highest coverage percentage of any coach with at least 10 games in NFL history at 48-27 ATS. He’s even better with the Lions at 44-19 ATS. This is the best four-year coverage period for a team in the Super Bowl era (since 1966).

• The Packers are 56-39 ATS under Matt LaFleur. LaFleur has the third-best coverage percentage (at least 50 games) among coaches who started their careers since 1966.

• LaFleur is 22-9 ATS and 18-13 as an underdog. Both are the highest marks from a coach who played at least 15 games as an underdog in the Super Bowl era.

• The Packers are 0-4 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

• The Lions are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against the Packers (since 2017). The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games, although their only ATS loss came last season when the Packers upset them as an 8.5-point underdog.

• The Lions are the favorites at 18-7 ATS over the last two seasons.

• The Lions are 15-6 ATS in division games under Campbell. The Packers are 0-3 ATS in division games this season.

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